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Thread: Hamilton hits 100

  1. #16
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Move this kid to CF pronto! Well, atleast after he breaks the record.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    If Hamilton continues along his apparent path of improvement in contact rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and adds a little gap power - which I don't think is a huge jump - just how good of a lead-off hitter would this guy project to be? To answer my own question - he would be the quintessential stud lead-off hitter is what he would be. Moreover, guys that post on here that are familar with Hamilton's reputation have said that he's known as a really hard worker; and while his ability to stick at SS has been questioned, no one has suggested that he can't be a good defensive player somewhere. So, what else could you realistically ask for in a prospect to hit lead-off? He may never make it to "the show", but there is no way that there is a prospect to hit lead-off in the minors with more promise and upside than Hamilton.

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    If Hamilton continues along his apparent path of improvement in contact rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and adds a little gap power - which I don't think is a huge jump - just how good of a lead-off hitter would this guy project to be? To answer my own question - he would be the quintessential stud lead-off hitter is what he would be. Moreover, guys that post on here that are familar with Hamilton's reputation have said that he's known as a really hard worker; and while his ability to stick at SS has been questioned, no one has suggested that he can't be a good defensive player somewhere. So, what else could you realistically ask for in a prospect to hit lead-off? He may never make it to "the show", but there is no way that there is a prospect to hit lead-off in the minors with more promise and upside than Hamilton.
    The question is though, and it probably won't be answered until he gets to the Majors, is will he still be able to draw walks against pitchers who know he doesn't have power? Very few guys can. If he can become one of those guys, envision Brett Gardner over the last few seasons with maybe a tad more power and a little bit more steals.

  5. #19
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    I think Hamilton's absolute ceiling is Juan Pierre (though he's likely to K more). And I'm really not sure he'll even get to Pierre status. Hoping I'm wrong.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I think Hamilton's absolute ceiling is Juan Pierre (though he's likely to K more). And I'm really not sure he'll even get to Pierre status. Hoping I'm wrong.
    Billy Hamilton might have 20 power. Technically, so does Juan Pierre..... but Hamilton has more power than Pierre does. Pierre of course never strikes out, where as Hamilton strikes out about 250% as often right now.

  7. #21
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.

  9. #23
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    I think his ceiling is Rock Raines without the home run power but with some of the gap power. Speed and stealing threat at a high rate and he still needs to learn how to read pitchers and he is learning from what I've read. He'll strikeout but I also think he'll hit hard enough to worry pitchers about doubles or triples. Anything in the gaps is a possible extra base hit that might be a long single for other players. I think they will be careful enough to walk him especially when he is batting without anyone on ahead of him. That's when he'll be most dangerous to them and they'll be most careful of him. He'll be a bizarre dilemma - walk him and he'll run on you - pitch him too easy and he might turn a blooper into a double or something like that. Anything on the ground will be a race every time. It all depends on whether he continues to make contact and be selective. If better pitchers throw strikes he simply has to be able to hit them instead of walking and let his speed make something happen. I'll accept a higher strikeout rate than Pierre or Coleman if Billy slashes a few in the gaps and keeps a decent contact rate at the same time. He'll never have Rock's home runs but I'll take the doubles triples and stolen bases as a substitute for power if he keeps his OBP above .350 in any combo of walks and hits. I should add that I'm really dubious that Billy can do this. I'm on board woth trading him if the right deal came along.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 07-04-2012 at 04:33 AM.

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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.
    A Pierre career would be fine, but I happen to think that is his absolute ceiling as a hitter. And to be honest, I'm skeptical he'll be as good. Pierre rarely struck out, but he hit for a high average. Hamilton strikes out more and will likely hit less with a tad more power. Hamilton may be able to be a better defender than Pierre would be. In the end, his defensive abilities may make him more even with Pierre IF he can hit fairly well. It's still a question mark at the advance levels.

  11. #25
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Sabo Fan View Post
    He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive.
    While I agree that is possible, it certainly hasn't been the case thus far. Hamilton has handled the jump from short season rookie ball to low A to high A with aplomb. Will the jump to AA be the one that finally gets him? Perhaps ..... but perhaps not.

  12. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Sabo Fan View Post
    I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.
    +1.

    For the record, I don't even think Vince Coleman was all that great. I think base stealers can be very exciting, but the great ones are almost aways great because they get on base and hit with some pop. Jose Reyes? Ricky Henderson? Tim Raines? Joe Morgan? Lou Brock? Ty Cobb? George Sisler? Sure, give me guys like that all day. Otis Nixon? Vince Coleman? Maury Wills? Gary Pettis? Willy Taveras? Curtis Goodwin? Tom Goodwin? I'd focus on finding a decent OPS instead.

    There are some speed guys who were pretty good for a few years in their 20s. Guys like Willie Wilson come to mind and that would be the very top of the range for a guy like Hamilton IMO. Wilson was basically an out machine at the top of the order after age 30 though. In his best years a .320ish batting average was what drove his ability to get on base. The likelihood of being a .310+ hitter in the majors is pretty low. Hamilton just doesn't have the power to join, the Morgan, Brock, Cobb group, so he'll need a pretty high batting average to put up some of those Willie Wilson type years. Otherwise, he slides into that Otis Nixon group (Nixon's top OPS+ in his career was 94) if he doesn't flame out in the massive amount of ground to cover between A+ and the big leagues. I'd cash him in ASAP for a high return if one is available and push the major league team to the next level.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-04-2012 at 08:43 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.
    There isn't anything wrong with it (Pierre was a far better player than Coleman IMO), but it's not a centerpiece who you build a team around and its certainly not untouchable. If some team is salivating over those 100 steals by July 2, I wouldn't hesitate to parlay Hamilton into something of more immediate impact or whose skillset is more based on his bat and glove (or his ability to get hitters out) than on his legs.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    There isn't anything wrong with it (Pierre was a far better player than Coleman IMO), but it's not a centerpiece who you build a team around and its certainly not untouchable. If some team is salivating over those 100 steals by July 2, I wouldn't hesitate to parlay Hamilton into something of more immediate impact or whose skillset is more based on his bat and glove (or his ability to get hitters out) than on his legs.
    I don't disagree. But I would go even further and say, especially with a young nucleus at the MLB level, that no "prospect" should be untouchable. I suspect that most of us who follow the Reds minor league prospects often get too attached and overvalue our better prospects. For example, the Reds really need a lead-off hitter right now (maybe not as much as a 4th hole hitter, but that's another discussion) so we understandably salivate about the possibility of Hamilton and 140 SB (i.e., 140 times Hamilton is on 2nd for Votto to drive in). But I would package any prospect the Reds have for the right hitter.

  15. #29
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    What kind of comp (gulp) is Deion Sanders to Billy?

  16. #30
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    Re: Hamilton hits 100

    Quote Originally Posted by Sabo Fan View Post
    I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.
    The best part right now is that even if Hamilton only had 30 SB's, he'd still be a prospect because he is hitting and getting on base and has potential at CF and SS. Take SB out of the subject and he's still a prospect. Include them, and he is a top tier prospect.


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