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Thread: NL MVP McCutchen????

  1. #46
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    I expect that McCutchen will also be helped by having played much better than was expected. While there have been a number of repeat MVP winners, over the years voters have also often given the award to the player who seemed to "come out of nowhere" as compared to the player who just turned in another typical as expected season.
    For example, Jason Giambi was named MVP in 2000 as his A's won their first title in several seasons. He had a big year, hitting .333 with 43 HRs, 137 RBI, a .647 SLG and leading the league with a .476 OBP. He only ranked 5th in the AL with a 7.4 WAR, well behind league leader Pedro Martinez's 11.4.
    The next season Giambi lead the AL with a 8.8 WAR, and his raw numbers were pretty much the same as 2000: .342 38 120, with AL leading OBP of .477 and SLG of .660. He didn't repeat as MVP, as the "new kid in town" was Ichiro Suzuki took the award even though he was only 5th in WAR.
    In 1962 Willie Mays lead the NL in WAR with 10.2, and in HRs with 49 to go with a .304 average and 141 RBI, but the MVP was given to Maury Wills, who ranked 9th in WAR with 5.8; Wills was the new big thing, stealing 104 bases. He wasn't nearly as good as Mays but he got the award.
    Roberto Clemente partisans made a big deal prior to 1966 about Clemente being underrated and it later paid off for Roberto as he was given the 1966 MVP. Yes, he hit for more power than before with 29 HRs, but he also ranked 6th in WAR with 8.1, behind Mays who had a WAR of 8.8 and my own MVP pick, Sandy Koufax, whose 9.5 WAR tied for the NL lead with Juan Marichal.
    Barry Bonds won 7 MVP awards in his career*, but he arguably was wrongly denied the 1991 MVP. He followed up his 1990 MVP season with another big year, ranking 2nd in the NL with a 7.6 WAR (Tom Glavine lead the NL but pitchers rarely are given the award). The media named Terry Pendleton MVP. Pendleton's WAR ranked 5th with a 5.8 score, but he "came out of nowhere," a former unknown who won the NL batting title for the division champ Braves.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

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  3. #47
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    So Barry Larkin's MVP award was a total travesty.
    Travesty is pretty harsh, but I think you'll find most people in baseball would support the statement "Barry Larkin was not the best/ most productive player in the NL in 1995."

    What's confusing to me is that he was clearly more productive in 1996, including putting up the first 30-30 season from a SS and winning a gold glove at the same time and yet finished a ridiculous 12th in the MVP voting.

    Suffice it say, the MVP award voting produces some really silly results sometimes.

    So far in 2012, I think Cutch, David Wright and Ryan Braun are in a dead heat. The guy not getting any pub whatsoever and who is criminally underrated is Chooch Ruiz in Philly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #48
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So far in 2012, I think Cutch, David Wright and Ryan Braun are in a dead heat. The guy not getting any pub whatsoever and who is criminally underrated is Chooch Ruiz in Philly.
    Braun has virtually no chance at MVP. The Brewers are out of the race, he won it last year with some subsequent resulting controversy following his failed drug test, and he only ranks 5th in the NL in WAR at 4.5 (Votto is 4th at 4.6). He isn't the "new kid in town."
    David Wright leads in WAR with 5.5 followed by McCutchen at 5.3. At this point it is McCutchen's award to lose.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  5. #49
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    Braun has virtually no chance at MVP. The Brewers are out of the race, he won it last year with some subsequent resulting controversy following his failed drug test, and he only ranks 5th in the NL in WAR at 4.5 (Votto is 4th at 4.6). He isn't the "new kid in town."
    David Wright leads in WAR with 5.5 followed by McCutchen at 5.3. At this point it is McCutchen's award to lose.
    I wasn't assessing their chances, rather their merit, in my view. I prefer fWAR to rWAR, where Braun is 3rd at 5.3, behind Wright (5.6) and McCutchen (5.4). Votto is 5th at 4.8.

    Given the massive role of narrative in determining who gets the MVP, I agree completely that its McCutchen's to lose. I also agree that Braun has basically no chance this year, precisely for the reasons you mentioned.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #50
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    I expect that McCutchen will also be helped by having played much better than was expected. While there have been a number of repeat MVP winners, over the years voters have also often given the award to the player who seemed to "come out of nowhere" as compared to the player who just turned in another typical as expected season.
    For example, Jason Giambi was named MVP in 2000 as his A's won their first title in several seasons. He had a big year, hitting .333 with 43 HRs, 137 RBI, a .647 SLG and leading the league with a .476 OBP. He only ranked 5th in the AL with a 7.4 WAR, well behind league leader Pedro Martinez's 11.4.
    The next season Giambi lead the AL with a 8.8 WAR, and his raw numbers were pretty much the same as 2000: .342 38 120, with AL leading OBP of .477 and SLG of .660. He didn't repeat as MVP, as the "new kid in town" was Ichiro Suzuki took the award even though he was only 5th in WAR.
    In 1962 Willie Mays lead the NL in WAR with 10.2, and in HRs with 49 to go with a .304 average and 141 RBI, but the MVP was given to Maury Wills, who ranked 9th in WAR with 5.8; Wills was the new big thing, stealing 104 bases. He wasn't nearly as good as Mays but he got the award.
    Roberto Clemente partisans made a big deal prior to 1966 about Clemente being underrated and it later paid off for Roberto as he was given the 1966 MVP. Yes, he hit for more power than before with 29 HRs, but he also ranked 6th in WAR with 8.1, behind Mays who had a WAR of 8.8 and my own MVP pick, Sandy Koufax, whose 9.5 WAR tied for the NL lead with Juan Marichal.
    Barry Bonds won 7 MVP awards in his career*, but he arguably was wrongly denied the 1991 MVP. He followed up his 1990 MVP season with another big year, ranking 2nd in the NL with a 7.6 WAR (Tom Glavine lead the NL but pitchers rarely are given the award). The media named Terry Pendleton MVP. Pendleton's WAR ranked 5th with a 5.8 score, but he "came out of nowhere," a former unknown who won the NL batting title for the division champ Braves.
    Yes. MVP has often been an award for the year's best story; journalists love a good story, and they want to pay respect to it.

    I'm completely fine with that. Larkin was the best story of 1995, IMO, and he deserved to be remembered for it.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  7. #51
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    I don't think Votto will win for one very important reason that I honestly never expected. It is the Most Valuable Player Award not best player award as someone has already stated. Votto won't win because the Reds are proving without any doubt that they can win without him. Would that continue for a whole season? No. But in the eyes of the voters I think they will look at this period as a reason to vote for someone else.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  8. #52
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  9. #53
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    All joking aside, looking at this now in August, I do feel that McCutchen is running away with this, especially with Votto out. He is currently at .373/.433/.632. His OPS is 1.064. He has missed only four games this year.

    As a side note, dude makes $500K this year. At this point I would guess he is bringing that into PNC Park all on his own every weekend series. Ok, maybe not quite, but almost. He is locked in through 2017 with a team option for 2018, and is still only 25 years old. Best deal the Pirates have made in decades, and arguably one of the best in baseball.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  10. #54
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    With Votto missing his time, and with the way the Reds have played during his absence... unfortunately, he doesn't have a prayer of winning the MVP. Cutch in a landslide, unless him and the Pirates hit a massive slump, or he gets hurt himself.

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    Re: NL MVP McCutchen????

    Ludwick?



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