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Thread: Justin Upton...again

  1. #166
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Who's the second team besides Pittsburgh?
    All I meant was the two teams involved in the rumor -- Arizona & Pitt
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #167
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    All I meant was the two teams involved in the rumor -- Arizona & Pitt
    Oh OK. Thanks for the clarification.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #168
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    The four teams on Upton's no-trade clause are the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Indians according to Rosenthal.

    The Reds can probably take on at least $3MM in payroll this year due to increased attendance according to Fay. Upton's prorated payroll impact for this year would be $2MM.*

    Make it happen Walt.



    * I know he makes $9.5 next year and $14M in 2014, but we can worry about that later.
    Go BLUE!!!

  5. #169
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    * I know he makes $9.5 next year and $14M in 2014, but we can worry about that later.
    The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #170
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Upton is a real upgrade in LF. Ludwick's OBP against righties the last two years is below .300. Ludwick has good power, but he's not in Upton's class.

    I'd make this proposed deal. Ludwick then could be packaged in a deal to help cover SS and/or 3B along with Rolen, Valdez, possibly Janish, H Rod, whatever.

    Would require more moves, would change the team a bit, but the offense needs the change.
    I just don't see how any GM can turn over LF, SS, and 3b between now and the trading deadline and end up with good players in all 3 positions.
    Cozart is actually a good SS (especially compared to what we've had in the past).. Likewise, the supply of good 3b is pretty scarce.

    I still think the dropoff at SS/3b would more than overshadow the gain of Upton over Ludwick. I agree that Upton is a better player.. however, I don't think it makes sense to trade any of the Reds starting position players for him, other than maybe one of Stubbs/Heisey..
    IMO, Cozart is one of the reasons the team is doing better this year.. He's light years better than Janish/Returia was last year. Sure, I'd like his OBP to be better, but he's still on pace to score about 90 runs this year.. that's not horrible from a leadoff man. (Sure, it could be better)
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #171
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.
    How much of the ~$24M do you think the Reds would need to eat to trade away Arroyo? Even if it's "only" half of that, what team would be willing to give the Reds $12M plus prospects (presumably) for less than a year-and-a-half of Arroyo?

  8. #172
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    I think Boston might, assuming they go for it this year. (Doubtful as it may seem at this point.) Others who might be interested include Toronto, Baltimore, LA Angels, and maybe Detroit.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
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  9. #173
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    I thought Boston had luxury tax problems with their payroll?
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  10. #174
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.
    Having Rolen fade into the sunset only causes $6.5m to evaporate. The Reds hopefully will make a deep run in the playoffs and bank a big profit windfall that will give them more payroll flexibility going into the offseason.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #175
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    If we were going to trade top prospects in an Upton trade, I'd try to include either Stubbs or Masset to help offset some of the salary going forward. Also a good point that Upton would only cost an incremental 4mm over what Ludwick would cost next year.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #176
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-rare-company/
    It's an article that explains how rare it is for players like Upton to be traded.

  13. #177
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    I've been on the fence about this deal, and after thinking about it I'd be willing to include Hamilton in a deal. I'd like to see something like:

    Stubbs/Hamilton/Sulbaren for Upton but would be willing to substitute Cingrani or Corcino if they would give us a lottery ticket LH pitcher in return.

    As far as the every day lineup goes:

    2b Phillips
    3b Frazier
    1b Votto
    RF Upton
    CF Bruce
    LF Ludwick
    C Mesigan
    SS Cozart
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  14. #178
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-rare-company/
    It's an article that explains how rare it is for players like Upton to be traded.
    The biggest thing I got from that article is: Justin Upton is only 24??

    Wow, I haven't been high on him, but that may have swayed me quite a bit. It just feels like he's been around a long time.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

  15. #179
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Quote Originally Posted by vaticanplum View Post
    The biggest thing I got from that article is: Justin Upton is only 24??

    Wow, I haven't been high on him, but that may have swayed me quite a bit. It just feels like he's been around a long time.
    He has. He got called up when he was 19.

  16. #180
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    Re: Justin Upton...again

    Madson comes off the books too.


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