Justin Upton...again

[RichRed]

Upton's been getting booed at home. We all know how fans can turn on a star player. Is a change of scenery in order?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8131431/care

[Benihana]

www.mlbtraderumors.com

The Diamondbacks are seriously open to the idea of trading Upton, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic confirms. The organization has outfield depth in the Majors and minors, so the club could replace his production in the short term. Some decision makers in the organization don’t seem crazy about Upton, as the recent comments of managing general partner Ken Kendrick suggest.

The Diamondbacks would be looking for a third baseman, shortstop or top-of-the-rotation starter if they trade Upton, Piecoro reports.

Rodriguez, Gregorius, and their choice of Corcino/Cingrani/Lotzkar. Let's go!

[oregonred]

My thoughts exactly.. I'd love to have him, but I'm not emptying out the farm for him.

His youth isn't attractive to me, because he is paid like a veteran performer.
His contract:

I tend to agree. He is under contract but gets very expensive in 2014/2015 The youth upside is that he could explode with monster 2013-2015 numbers but he is gone after 2015 best case. Taking on 45M in salary over the next 3+ years while gutting the farm seems to make little sense unless the window absolutely is planned to end in 2015 (with Votto/Phillips/Bruce still locked up to big contracts).

Even in the pipedream that the Reds could get Upton, how exactly are they going to take on another $14M+ salary in 2014/2015 and another $10M salary in 2013? This would push the payroll over $100M in each of those years. So who is leaving?

[bucksfan2]

I tend to agree. He is under contract but gets very expensive in 2014/2015 The youth upside is that he could explode with monster 2013-2015 numbers but he is gone after 2015 best case. Taking on 45M in salary over the next 3+ years while gutting the farm seems to make little sense unless the window absolutely is planned to end in 2015 (with Votto/Phillips/Bruce still locked up to big contracts).

Even in the pipedream that the Reds could get Upton, how exactly are they going to take on another $14M+ salary in 2014/2015 and another $10M salary in 2013? This would push the payroll over $100M in each of those years. So who is leaving?

Win. You tell me a core of Votto, Bruce, Upton, Phillips, Cueto, Latos, Leake, Bailey, and Chapman wouldn't be the prohibitive favorites in the NL Central over the next 3 years?

If Upton gets too expensive in 2014/15 you trade him. But if the Reds are able to stack back to back to back playoff appearances that will increase their ticket sales, enable them to raise ticket prices, make then a bigger draw on the road, and give them better TV negotiating rights.

[oregonred]

You are assuming that at least one of Leake, Bailey or Chapman isn't the core part of the deal. They are going to want someone major league ready in addition to 1-2 top tier prospects.

Reds already have $52M in payroll committed to just six guys in 2014 (Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Marshall, Chapman). Assuming you can keep Latos, Bailey and Leake that's another $15-20M easily as Y2 and Y3 arb eligibles. So now the Reds are at $90M in 2014 for just the nine core guys + Upton and the payroll goes way higher in 2015. An impressive list of players and would be amazing, but just not going to happen.

Near term payflex went out the window with the Votto and Phillips extenstion. And the expensive part of Votto's deal doesn't kick in until after the new TV deal kicks in later in the decade.

[RedEye]

You are assuming that at least one of Leake, Bailey or Chapman isn't the core part of the deal. They are going to want someone major league ready in addition to 1-2 top tier prospects.

I would include either Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton, no question.

Bailey or Leake + Rodriguez and Lotzkar

Then slot Chapman into the rotation and let the winning begin.

[DGullett35]

Chapman isn't going into this rotation until 2013. Chapman has to stay as this teams closer for the time being because theres noone else that can consistently do the job. As much as Id like Masset to step into that role I think it will take him awhile to be able to handle the high leverage situation. Id include Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton but then we would have to go after Dempster or Garza to fill the hole left in the rotation.

[dougdirt]

I would argue that Chapman hasn't done the job consistently.

[DGullett35]

I would argue that Chapman hasn't done the job consistently.

I will agree, however Chapman is by far the best suitor for the closer role on this team. Marshall has struggled somewhat in the 8th inning here recently. Arredondo and Ondrusek would be like watching CoCo all over again if they were thrust into that role. Chapman had a bad couple weeks but has been pretty dominate and is finally throwing that slide peice again. I wish masset could do the closer duties but like I said before it may take awhile for him to be able to handle the high leverage situations. Who knows come September Masset could be this teams closer. Kind of like a Jason Motte for last years red birds.

[dougdirt]

I will agree, however Chapman is by far the best suitor for the closer role on this team. Marshall has struggled somewhat in the 8th inning here recently. Arredondo and Ondrusek would be like watching CoCo all over again if they were thrust into that role. Chapman had a bad couple weeks but has been pretty dominate and is finally throwing that slide peice again. I wish masset could do the closer duties but like I said before it may take awhile for him to be able to handle the high leverage situations. Who knows come September Masset could be this teams closer. Kind of like a Jason Motte for last years red birds.

Marshall has allowed 3 runs since May 20th in 18.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP.

[DGullett35]

Marshall has allowed 3 runs since May 20th in 18.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP.

You got me Doug. maybe it seems like hes pitched poorly lately because noone in the pen has pitched all that much here in the last couple weeks. He gave up the dinger to Denorfia on Thur. and loaded the bases on Fri. Ondrusek got him outta that one. he did come back on Sat. or Sun?? and pitched 1.2 innings of extremely good relief. I just think hes better suited for a 7th or 8th inning role than a closer role. I know he did a decent job in the beginning of the year but thats just my opinion. However numbers do not lie.

[RedEye]

Chapman isn't going into this rotation until 2013. Chapman has to stay as this teams closer for the time being because theres noone else that can consistently do the job. As much as Id like Masset to step into that role I think it will take him awhile to be able to handle the high leverage situation. Id include Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton but then we would have to go after Dempster or Garza to fill the hole left in the rotation.

That may be true, but I was arguing more in terms of the 2013 to 2015 window. If it meant acquiring Justin Upton, I think the team could get by with someone else in the 5th starter role for the rest of 2012 if they weren't willing to move Chapman from closer. I don't think they'd have to panic and acquire Garza or Dempster.

[DGullett35]

That may be true, but I was arguing more in terms of the 2013 to 2015 window. If it meant acquiring Justin Upton, I think the team could get by with someone else in the 5th starter role for the rest of 2012 if they weren't willing to move Chapman from closer. I don't think they'd have to panic and acquire Garza or Dempster.

Gotcha..However they still would have to go out and aquire someone. We really don't have anyone in Louisville that could come up right now and be our 5th starter. Simon or LeCure would be the best option and thats really not a great option IMO. We may not need to go out and get a Dempster or Garza but we would need to get someone. If this trade were to happen Jeff Francis would have fit perfectly into that 5th spot for a fill in for the rest of the year.

[RedEye]

If this trade were to happen Jeff Francis would have fit perfectly into that 5th spot for a fill in for the rest of the year.

Anyway, I think they could figure it out. Heck, maybe they'd still have time to put Aroldis in AAA for a few months to stretch him out in time for September. Meanwhile, they could do worse than LeCure.

I dunno. All I know is that if J-Up is available for a reasonable price (which a three-player return headlined by Bailey or Leake would absolutely be), Walt should be all over it.

[mth123]

I don't think the Reds really have what it takes to get him. If they are saying Top of the rotation starter, Leake or Bailey probably won't get it done. Neither would Corcino, Cingrani or Lotzkar. Maybe Cueto. Third Base? H-Rod? A guy who hasn't really played there all that much. Really? SS? Didi. Maybe, but he looks more like a utility guy to me at this point.

I'm guessing they are thinking more along the lines of a package like Martin Perez, Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar from Texas (all of whom are better than the Reds best prospect). Maybe they wouldn't get all three, but I'd bet at least 2 of those positions would need guys of that caliber with the 3rd substituting a lesser but still highly regarded guy.

At minimum the Reds would need to include Hamilton and Corcino IMO and it would probably take adding a Todd Frazier to even be in the conversation. I'd happily pay that, but I'd still bet some other team would top that or AZ would flatly turn it down.