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Thread: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

  1. #106
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Nope. I am just saying I think they are much closer than you do.

    I think Hamilton has a chance to compete for MVP's if things go right for him. I don't see that with Gregorius.

    But as both of their games stand, today, I think that Gregorius is probably the better player when looking at the entire package. Hamilton just has that upside that Gregorius doesn't.
    At the same level, at nearly the same age, Hamilton would put up 120+ more bases per year. The 11 error difference between gloves might be worth 10 runs.

    110+ runs says differently.
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  3. #107
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Scrap, why does someone have to become a star? If Gregorius turns out to be an average or even slightly above average Major League shortstop, isn't that something worth including inside your Top 20?
    If you thought he was a major league starter.

    I don't. Each of the other guys I chose ahead of him has a higher ceiling, IMO. That may change as more information becomes available.

    For now, he's Juan Castro/ Paul Janish.
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  4. #108
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    At the same level, at nearly the same age, Hamilton would put up 120+ more bases per year. The 11 error difference between gloves might be worth 10 runs.

    110+ runs says differently.
    I am not following your logic here. 120 more bases? Where did that number come from? And how is 120 bases - 10 runs = 110+ runs?

    Maybe you meant 110+ bases?

    Even still, I am not concerned so much about Didi in 2011 compared to Hamilton in 2012 in the California League. I am concerned about how each guy projects towards the Major Leagues. I will await your response to my Didi slash line post to expand further.

  5. #109
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Scrap, here is the kind of season I fully believe that Gregorius is capable of
    Code:
    PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
    650	588	160	25	10	8	49	85	5	5	3	.272	.332	.389	.305
    I would gladly take that kind of season from a very good defensive shortstop.

    In that scenario I gave him a 7.5% walk rate and a 13% strikeout rate.

    Where am I very far off in that scenario that would leave a guy like that outside of your Top 20?
    Because you're assuming he takes a massive jump in power, his BB rate improves, and his K rate stays untouched?

    I don't think any of those numbers, aside from possibly BA, are remotely possible.

    (And, yeah, I meant bases. My bad.)
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Because you're assuming he takes a massive jump in power, his BB rate improves, and his K rate stays untouched?

    I don't think any of those numbers, aside from possibly BA, are remotely possible.

    (And, yeah, I meant bases. My bad.)
    Actually, compared to this season his walk rate would have gone down and his K rate would remain where it has been for his entire career.

    His power jumps up slightly. Right now, over 650 PA's, in Pensacola mind you, where the word is you can't hit for power as a lefty, he would be on pace for 20 doubles, 15 triples and 2 home runs. I don't think saying he could have a .117 Isolated Power is some sort of MASSIVE jump or even unexpected.

    In 2010 his IsoP was .106. In 2011, it was .140. In 2012 it is .095. A .117 IsoP is not anywhere close to a massive jump from where he has been at in the past.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 07-12-2012 at 01:44 PM.

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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    But I guess what I am saying is that I believe Gregorius can put up that line and probably be a 3 to 4 win player when adding in his defense (for example, Jeter in 2010 had a .340/.370 OBP/SLG and posted a 2.7 WAR and we all know about his defense).

    You clearly don't think Gregorius can sustain anywhere near the walk rate he has in AA now (I am unsure why you think that though) or that he literally has no power to speak of at all despite you saying that you do think he has power in BP.

    I am done with the back and forth though, I think we both have our opinions out there.

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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Don't put words in my mouth, now. This has been civil.

    My opinion is that Gregorius has no game power now. He's never exhibited game power. He's not likely to exhibit game power as he continues. His career BB rate is around 6%. I'm betting it'll stay there and the small bump this year is statistical noise.

    Because of this, he's a backup SS/ less than league average starter. If he plays a full season with a full season's worth of ABs, he'll not sniff a .710 and would be lucky to post something above .675.

    Because of his glove (and the massive bump SSs get), he might get to a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR. There's no way he gets above 3.0. Not even his ceiling, IMO, suggests that.

    (All of this, of course, assumes no new information comes in at Louisville. I'm actually going tonight to see him play, as I haven't seen him in a couple of years.)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Can you give me a list of guys who didn't have acceptable numbers in the minor leagues that went on to great major league careers? Or even acceptable major league careers?

    Drew Stubbs? Okay, maybe.

    Got another?

    I'm guessing that almost all prospects-- 90+% of them, maybe more-- are easy to see from their numbers. Especially hitters. If you compare them across their own team, their league/ level, their age group, you can come up with a list of guys that should perform well.

    Those in the lower echelon may become useful spare parts or platoon partners, but I don't know of one that's become a star. (Though, admittedly, I could absolutely be wrong. This is an absolute guess.)
    That was not my point. I could give a long list though of guys who excelled in the minors who never did squat in the majors or even made it. That was the poitn between the two.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Don't put words in my mouth, now. This has been civil.

    My opinion is that Gregorius has no game power now. He's never exhibited game power. He's not likely to exhibit game power as he continues. His career BB rate is around 6%. I'm betting it'll stay there and the small bump this year is statistical noise.

    Because of this, he's a backup SS/ less than league average starter. If he plays a full season with a full season's worth of ABs, he'll not sniff a .710 and would be lucky to post something above .675.

    Because of his glove (and the massive bump SSs get), he might get to a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR. There's no way he gets above 3.0. Not even his ceiling, IMO, suggests that.

    (All of this, of course, assumes no new information comes in at Louisville. I'm actually going tonight to see him play, as I haven't seen him in a couple of years.)
    Irony, see bolded
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  10. #114
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Don't put words in my mouth, now. This has been civil.
    I don't see where I put words in your mouth or was uncivil. Where did I do that?

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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbachunk View Post
    That was not my point. I could give a long list though of guys who excelled in the minors who never did squat in the majors or even made it. That was the poitn between the two.

    Irony, see bolded
    True, there are a ton of those AAAA failures. But almost all players-- I'm guessing at least 9 out of 10-- come from that pool of good, productive minor leaguers. And the higher up the ladder you go, the higher minor league production, age, level, et al, match up. That 's the top strata I talked about earlier.

    In other words, if you suck (or are merely slightly above average) as a minor league hitter, you're not going to play in the major leagues more than a handful of games. You aren't going to improve to league average or better results just because you get to the majors. And you're almost certainly never going to be a star.

    (BTW, that's not irony. I never put words in your mouth, nor did I purposefully mangle the meaning of your post.)
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 07-12-2012 at 03:07 PM.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  12. #116
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    1. Cingrani
    2. Corcino
    3. Hamilton
    4. Stephenson
    5. HRod
    6. Joseph
    7. Lutz
    8. Lotzkar
    9. Sulbaran
    10. Travieso
    11. Winker
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  13. #117
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Swagger View Post
    1. Hamilton
    2. Cingrani
    3. Corcino
    4. Stephenson
    5. Gregorius
    6. H Rodriguez
    7. Lotzkar
    8. Joseph
    9. Lutz
    10. R Wright

    11. Yorman
    12. Sulbaran
    13. LaMarre
    14. Soto
    15. Waldrop


    I did not include any player that was drafted in 2012

    Travieso
    Winker
    Rahier
    Gelalich
    You see, I'm not the only one. If we're excluding 2012 draft picks, one of the two remaining spots in my Top 10 would go to Wright. The other, maybe Y-Rod if he finishes strong, but right now probably LaMarre.
    Choo got it, dude.

  14. #118
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    1 Corcino
    2 Hamilton
    3 Lotzkar
    4 Stephenson
    5 Gregorius
    6 H Rodriguez
    7 Cingrani
    8 Travieso
    9 Lutz
    10 Barnhardt
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  15. #119
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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

    1. Hamilton
    2. Corcino
    3. Stephenson
    4. Sulbaran
    5. Gregorius
    6. Cingriani
    7. Travieso
    8. Waldrop
    9. Lotzkar
    10. Wright

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    Re: It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

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