I am not following your logic here. 120 more bases? Where did that number come from? And how is 120 bases - 10 runs = 110+ runs?
Maybe you meant 110+ bases?
Even still, I am not concerned so much about Didi in 2011 compared to Hamilton in 2012 in the California League. I am concerned about how each guy projects towards the Major Leagues. I will await your response to my Didi slash line post to expand further.
Actually, compared to this season his walk rate would have gone down and his K rate would remain where it has been for his entire career.
His power jumps up slightly. Right now, over 650 PA's, in Pensacola mind you, where the word is you can't hit for power as a lefty, he would be on pace for 20 doubles, 15 triples and 2 home runs. I don't think saying he could have a .117 Isolated Power is some sort of MASSIVE jump or even unexpected.
In 2010 his IsoP was .106. In 2011, it was .140. In 2012 it is .095. A .117 IsoP is not anywhere close to a massive jump from where he has been at in the past.
Last edited by dougdirt; 07-12-2012 at 01:44 PM.
But I guess what I am saying is that I believe Gregorius can put up that line and probably be a 3 to 4 win player when adding in his defense (for example, Jeter in 2010 had a .340/.370 OBP/SLG and posted a 2.7 WAR and we all know about his defense).
You clearly don't think Gregorius can sustain anywhere near the walk rate he has in AA now (I am unsure why you think that though) or that he literally has no power to speak of at all despite you saying that you do think he has power in BP.
I am done with the back and forth though, I think we both have our opinions out there.
Don't put words in my mouth, now. This has been civil.
My opinion is that Gregorius has no game power now. He's never exhibited game power. He's not likely to exhibit game power as he continues. His career BB rate is around 6%. I'm betting it'll stay there and the small bump this year is statistical noise.
Because of this, he's a backup SS/ less than league average starter. If he plays a full season with a full season's worth of ABs, he'll not sniff a .710 and would be lucky to post something above .675.
Because of his glove (and the massive bump SSs get), he might get to a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR. There's no way he gets above 3.0. Not even his ceiling, IMO, suggests that.
(All of this, of course, assumes no new information comes in at Louisville. I'm actually going tonight to see him play, as I haven't seen him in a couple of years.)
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
True, there are a ton of those AAAA failures. But almost all players-- I'm guessing at least 9 out of 10-- come from that pool of good, productive minor leaguers. And the higher up the ladder you go, the higher minor league production, age, level, et al, match up. That 's the top strata I talked about earlier.
In other words, if you suck (or are merely slightly above average) as a minor league hitter, you're not going to play in the major leagues more than a handful of games. You aren't going to improve to league average or better results just because you get to the majors. And you're almost certainly never going to be a star.
(BTW, that's not irony. I never put words in your mouth, nor did I purposefully mangle the meaning of your post.)
Last edited by Scrap Irony; 07-12-2012 at 03:07 PM.
1. Cingrani
2. Corcino
3. Hamilton
4. Stephenson
5. HRod
6. Joseph
7. Lutz
8. Lotzkar
9. Sulbaran
10. Travieso
11. Winker
Arise and walk, come through. A world beyond that door is calling out for you. Arise and walk, come through. It's calling out for you.
1 Corcino
2 Hamilton
3 Lotzkar
4 Stephenson
5 Gregorius
6 H Rodriguez
7 Cingrani
8 Travieso
9 Lutz
10 Barnhardt
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
1. Hamilton
2. Corcino
3. Stephenson
4. Sulbaran
5. Gregorius
6. Cingriani
7. Travieso
8. Waldrop
9. Lotzkar
10. Wright
...
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