As we get near the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how the Reds stand in terms of their player payroll. For 2013, $62.75M is owed between 10 players:
17.00 Joey Votto
10.00 Brandon Phillips
8.00 Bronson Arroyo
7.50 Jay Bruce
7.40 Johnny Cueto
4.50 Sean Marshall
3.10 Nick Masset
2.05 Ryan Hanigan
2.00 Aroldis Chapman
1.20 Jose Arredondo
When you consider the Reds' lack of outfield depth combined with no obvious, affordable upgrades due to hit the free agent market, I think the Reds will pick up Ryan Ludwick's $5M option. That pushes the payroll up to $67.75M.
Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Sam LeCure, and Devin Mesoraco are all due to be in pre-arbitration, which means the Reds could pay them the Major League minimum if they'd like. That's 15 roster spots filled with $69.75M owed in payroll. Moving on to the players eligible for arbitration . . .
Bill Bray will be eligible for his 3rd year of arbitration. It would be tough to imagine him getting a raise, but maybe he could make a similar salary if he rebounds with a big 2nd half. Otherwise, expect him to be non-tendered.
Homer Bailey and Wilson Valdez are 2nd year arbitration eligible. I'm not a Valdez fan, but if he sticks around, it's pretty likely that he would get a nominal raise to about $1.0M. As for Bailey, he's making $2.425M this year, and seeing as how he's having a solid year, I could see that jumping up to around $4M.
With the salary now at about $76.25M, that leaves 6 players who are 1st-time arbitration eligible: Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, and Drew Stubbs. You're guess is as good as mine as far as how much they're going to make next year, but it's pretty clearly to me that the payroll will be pushing $90M next year--and that's not including Aroldis Chapman's annual bonus (doesn't count toward the payroll), escalator clauses (e.g. Gold Glove and MVP awards), and the possibility of re-signing Miguel Cairo, Ryan Madson, or Scott Rolen.
So what do you all think? Do the Reds need to trim some fat? Who are the non-tender candidates? Do you see any trades happening that will add/shed payroll? Are there any free agent possibilities?