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Thread: Aroldis Chapman and history

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  1. #1
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Aroldis Chapman and history

    Loved this recent post on Red Reporter, so I thought I'd paste it in here. Mr. Chapman is on track to make history in many, many ways. And even if he doesn't, his stats are going to be the stuff of legend, looks like. Thought it would be nice to have a specific place to discuss these tall tales on RZ.

    We all love facts, don't we? Or, anyway, that's what Charles Dickens' Hard Times taught me. I didn't finish it. Actually, come to think of it, facts are a little bit boring. Those "Chuck Norris facts" were funny (for a little while) because they weren't true. It's probably more accurate to say that we prefer fiction - and, sometimes, factions. Facts that have a quality of fictions. Myths.

    Aroldis Chapman's performance this season has taken on a tint of myth. The very real facts about his pitching sound like the stuff of fiction. Fan-fiction almost, but with a G-rating.

    Here are some of them:

    Via Joel Luckhaupt on Twitter: "The catcher has recorded the last 15 putouts with Chapman on the mound." Meaning, pretty much all the contact in play Chapman has allowed since the end of June have been little dribblers or pop-ups in front of the plate.

    Nearly half of hitters who have faced Chapman this season have struck out (49.1%). That's not half of outs by strikeout (he's close to 63% there), but half of all hitters who have strolled to the plate have K'd.

    60% of plate appearances against Chapman end in either a strike out or ground out.

    Also via Joel Luckhaupt on Twitter (chapter 3, verse 14): "22 of Chapman's last 27 outs have been by strikeout." Could Chapman put up the kind of gaudy numbers he has over these twenty-seven outs in a proper start? Well, he would need to be far less reliant on the fastball and his high-90s velocity would be unlikely to sustain itself over 9 innings. I want to say yes, though. So I will.

    Chapman has allowed just 8 extra base hits in 166 PAs (4.8%, or .224 slugging). A ball leaves the infield (usually for an out) roughly once every five hitters. Since the All Star Break, that's meant less than once per outing.

    Chapman's current strikeout (per nine innings) rate is 17.1. He's pitched 43.2 innings. Kenley Jansen, last season, became the only pitcher since 1901 (let's just say ever) who has even put up a strikeout rate over 16.0 in 40 innings in a season of work. Of course, Chapman has plenty of season left, but he's only 11 short of how many innings Jansen threw last season.

    Chapman's walk rate is currently 2.7. No pitcher in history (>40 IP) has recorded a walk rate below 3.0 and a K-rate above 14.0.

    Over 1,819 pitches (before today), Chapman's average fastball velocity was 98.1.

    No hitter in baseball has faced Chapman more than seven times (Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder). Fielder and McGehee are collectively 0-13, with a walk.

    Jose Reyes has had the most success against Chapman to date (5 PAs, 2-4, triple, BB).
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  2. #2
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    I love him as a closer, but the wonder of what if he was a starter will always be there too.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I love him as a closer, but the wonder of what if he was a starter will always be there too.
    I have a feeling we'll never know because of the carnival atmosphere every time he comes in to close. Every time Chapman comes in to pitch, it's like they roll him out as a circus act. It's a farce and gigantic waste of talent. It was extremely tasteless to listen to Thom Breneman and Jeff Brantly in the 9th inning yesterday (actually started in the bottom of the 8th when they were already calling it a "big come from behind win."). I find myself at times hoping that Chapman will fail so this whole closer nonsense will go away.

    The guy needs to be a starter. What that will mean is an end to the 100+ mph pitches, and Chapman learning to pitch in the 95-96 mph range. Plus, he will need to add a breaking pitch and an off speed pitch. I know it sounds pedestrian, but Chapman cannot continue to throw at 101 mph. By the time he's 26, he'll be under a surgeon's knife.

    I know Chapman fires up the crowd in the 9th. I know its good PR. But every save, every strikeout to end the game, puts one more nail in the coffin of what could have been. Chapman would have made a very good rotation into a great rotation.
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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    The guy needs to be a starter. What that will mean is an end to the 100+ mph pitches, and Chapman learning to pitch in the 95-96 mph range. Plus, he will need to add a breaking pitch and an off speed pitch.
    This much, I agree with. He needs to be stretched out after this season, and have his contract extended too.

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I know it sounds pedestrian, but Chapman cannot continue to throw at 101 mph. By the time he's 26, he'll be under a surgeon's knife.
    This, I disagree with. Chapman's velocity comes from body type + mechanics. I don't really see him over-throwing the ball the way, say, a Dibble or Myers did. I suspect the strain on his arm is on par with most other pitchers.
    The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    This, I disagree with. Chapman's velocity comes from body type + mechanics. I don't really see him over-throwing the ball the way, say, a Dibble or Myers did. I suspect the strain on his arm is on par with most other pitchers.
    I hope you are right. But all it takes is one elbow twinge, and all of Reds Land will descend in fury at Walt, Dusty, and the other powers that be.

    However, experience has taught us that Murphy's Law seems to be the mission statement for the entire Reds organization.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I hope you are right. But all it takes is one elbow twinge, and all of Reds Land will descend in fury at Walt, Dusty, and the other powers that be.

    However, experience has taught us that Murphy's Law seems to be the mission statement for the entire Reds organization.
    If he get's a bad arm.....it's sure not going to be from being overworked....as he has not been here. The only people who would blame Dusty and Walt...are those who do not like them to begin with.

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I know Chapman fires up the crowd in the 9th. I know its good PR. But every save, every strikeout to end the game, puts one more nail in the coffin of what could have been.
    Wow. Life of the party.
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    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    I'd love to see what Chapman would've done in the rotation. I wonder how different things would be if Madson and Masset would've been healthy the whole year.
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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    People seem to forget that there was no spot in the rotation for Chapman coming out of ST. So, he would have started the year at Louisville if he remained a starter. Leake was NOT on the bubble in spring training. He was the Reds' second-best starting pitcher last year and it wasn't even close. The "battle" was between Bailey and Chapman, and even though Chapman out-performed Bailey in ST, Bailey kept his spot in the rotation. And to Bailey's credit he's pitched well thus far this season.

    Hey, I wanted Chapman to be a starter too. I was adamant he should be a starter. But that ship has sailed, IMO. He's going to stick as a closer.

  10. #10
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    People seem to forget that there was no spot in the rotation for Chapman coming out of ST. So, he would have started the year at Louisville if he remained a starter. Leake was NOT on the bubble in spring training. He was the Reds' second-best starting pitcher last year and it wasn't even close. The "battle" was between Bailey and Chapman, and even though Chapman out-performed Bailey in ST, Bailey kept his spot in the rotation. And to Bailey's credit he's pitched well thus far this season.

    Hey, I wanted Chapman to be a starter too. I was adamant he should be a starter. But that ship has sailed, IMO. He's going to stick as a closer.
    He had the 4th best FIP amongst starters last year. So yeah, it was close to say the least.

  11. #11
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    He had the 4th best FIP amongst starters last year. So yeah, it was close to say the least.
    Cueto had a better year than Leake in 2011. He is the only Reds' starting pitcher that could say that.

    Leake had a better 2011 season than Bailey.

    Leake: 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 167.2 IP.

    Bailey: 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in just 112 IP.

    1. Cueto
    2. Leake
    3. Bailey
    4. Arroyo
    5. Wood

    So, who are these mystery three pitchers that pitched better than Leake last year? Cueto and who else? Who are the other two?

    For the record, I think Bailey is better than Leake right now, but we're talking about just the 2011 season.
    Last edited by Blitz Dorsey; 07-20-2012 at 12:45 PM.

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    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Can we have one AC thread w/o the SP/RP debate? He IS the most dominating closer in baseball. At SP sure he may have been dominate, but there are a lot of variables that could have made him mediocre. Lower velocity, addition of a weaker third pitch. Batters timing in the 2nd and third time through the order. Tons of variables

    IS > May have been > Could have
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    Can we have one AC thread w/o the SP/RP debate? He IS the most dominating closer in baseball. At SP sure he may have been dominate, but there are a lot of variables that could have made him mediocre. Lower velocity, addition of a weaker third pitch. Batters timing in the 2nd and third time through the order. Tons of variables

    IS > May have been > Could have
    Some might argue Kimbrel is, he is a bit more established. Personally though I like Aroldis.
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  14. #14
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Cueto had a better year than Leake in 2011. He is the only Reds' starting pitcher that could say that.

    Leake had a better 2011 season than Bailey.

    Leake: 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 167.2 IP.

    Bailey: 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in just 112 IP.

    1. Cueto
    2. Leake
    3. Bailey
    4. Arroyo
    5. Wood

    So, who are these mystery three pitchers that pitched better than Leake last year? Cueto and who else? Who are the other two?

    For the record, I think Bailey is better than Leake right now, but we're talking about just the 2011 season.
    Wood and Bailey both had better FIP's than Leake last year, which is a much better predictor of future success than ERA. xFIP was a different story, but it's not fair to say Leake was 2nd best and that it wasn't even close.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Wood and Bailey both had better FIP's than Leake last year, which is a much better predictor of future success than ERA. xFIP was a different story, but it's not fair to say Leake was 2nd best and that it wasn't even close.
    Might be a better predictor of future success but it's a poorer indicator of present production than what his actual #'s were. In which case (and especially if you add in IP) what he said was about right, Leake was the 2nd best starter for them last year.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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