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Thread: Aroldis Chapman and history

  1. #151
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    If one reliever saves 34 of 35 games and another reliever saves 34 of 35 games what's the difference?

    The guy can be flashy or dominating or make things interesting or whatever but the bottom line for a closer is simply to save the win. It doesn't matter if it's Chapman or Broxton or Madson or whoever. The goal is the same. And the goal isn't to see how many flashbulbs go off when he pitches. The only goal for a closer is to save the win.

    Replace a closer with a 97% save percentage with another closer also with a 97% save percentage and you lose part of your argument.
    Not neccessarily.

    I'll throw a 97% save percentage out the window, b/c frankly any pitcher saving 97% of their games is not going to be getting by allowing a runner or two every other appearance.

    Coco was pretty solid during his Reds tenure. he saved something in the neighborhood of 88% of his chances for the Reds. he was at 83% then 86% in his last 2 seasons. It would drive many fans nuts the amount of times he'd walk a guy or give up a hit, or even give up a run when coming into the game w/ a 2 or 3 run lead before closing it out. I can't help but imagine that the starting pitchers felt the same uneasiness, carried the thought with them that they needed to last as long as possible to ensure that they'll get the win.

    Meanwhile, Aroldis has saved 88% of his chances this season. You don't think it sits in the back of Cueto's mind when he took the mound in the 8th against the cubbies w/ a 3 run lead the other night that all he needed to do was get the next 3 outs. He could use everything he had left, b/c he knew the 9th was safe.

    Perhaps I'm giving that mentality too much credit, but I would think it would have to make a worlds of difference knowing you've got an absolutely guy w/ absolutely filthy stuff like Chapman vs a guy you felt was "just getting by" like Coco often appeared to do.

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  3. #152
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    Not neccessarily.

    I'll throw a 97% save percentage out the window, b/c frankly any pitcher saving 97% of their games is not going to be getting by allowing a runner or two every other appearance.

    Coco was pretty solid during his Reds tenure. he saved something in the neighborhood of 88% of his chances for the Reds. he was at 83% then 86% in his last 2 seasons. It would drive many fans nuts the amount of times he'd walk a guy or give up a hit, or even give up a run when coming into the game w/ a 2 or 3 run lead before closing it out. I can't help but imagine that the starting pitchers felt the same uneasiness, carried the thought with them that they needed to last as long as possible to ensure that they'll get the win.

    Meanwhile, Aroldis has saved 88% of his chances this season. You don't think it sits in the back of Cueto's mind when he took the mound in the 8th against the cubbies w/ a 3 run lead the other night that all he needed to do was get the next 3 outs. He could use everything he had left, b/c he knew the 9th was safe.

    Perhaps I'm giving that mentality too much credit, but I would think it would have to make a worlds of difference knowing you've got an absolutely guy w/ absolutely filthy stuff like Chapman vs a guy you felt was "just getting by" like Coco often appeared to do.
    Not only the starting pitchers mentality but what about the opposing team's mentality? Knowing that Chapman is coming in the game in the 9th may cause them to press in the later innings as well as take more chances. It also may cause some pressure on the opposing pitchers knowing that if the Reds have the lead late in the game they can't afford to make any misakes.

  4. #153
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Not only the starting pitchers mentality but what about the opposing team's mentality? Knowing that Chapman is coming in the game in the 9th may cause them to press in the later innings as well as take more chances. It also may cause some pressure on the opposing pitchers knowing that if the Reds have the lead late in the game they can't afford to make any misakes.
    That's a great point, never thought of it like that.

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Not only the starting pitchers mentality but what about the opposing team's mentality? Knowing that Chapman is coming in the game in the 9th may cause them to press in the later innings as well as take more chances. It also may cause some pressure on the opposing pitchers knowing that if the Reds have the lead late in the game they can't afford to make any misakes.
    Admittedly there may be some psychological affect in having closer like Chapman, but what about the psychological affect of knowing you will be up against an (in their prime) Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez 3 times in a 7 game series? How much pressure is there to shut down the opponent and scratch for runs when they are on the mound, and how much pressure is there to with the games they are not?

    Bottom line is that a closer does not do anything tangible in the first 8 innings to put their team in a position to win a game. Their role is to secure a victory if the rest of their team plays well enough up to that point.

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Their role is to secure a victory if the rest of their team plays well enough up to that point.
    Like saving LeBron for a game-winning 3-pointer.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  7. #156
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Admittedly there may be some psychological affect in having closer like Chapman, but what about the psychological affect of knowing you will be up against an (in their prime) Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez 3 times in a 7 game series? How much pressure is there to shut down the opponent and scratch for runs when they are on the mound, and how much pressure is there to with the games they are not?

    Bottom line is that a closer does not do anything tangible in the first 8 innings to put their team in a position to win a game. Their role is to secure a victory if the rest of their team plays well enough up to that point.
    Puca, you've put into words my exact question. I think everyone recognizes that no matter how good the closer, he's not as valuable as the equivalently excellent starting pitcher.

    But what if as a starter, Chapman wouldn't be Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez, he's more like a Homer Bailey or Mike Leake. Someone who is probably above average, but perhaps not quite all-star level.

    In order to answer that you need to answer two questions: 1) WHo's going to replace the starter if not Aroldis, and 2) Who's going to replace Aroldis if he becomes a starter.

    Without knowing the answer to those questions, it's hard to pin down exactly what they should do with him other than prepare him to do both very well.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  8. #157
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    Not neccessarily.

    I'll throw a 97% save percentage out the window, b/c frankly any pitcher saving 97% of their games is not going to be getting by allowing a runner or two every other appearance.

    Coco was pretty solid during his Reds tenure. he saved something in the neighborhood of 88% of his chances for the Reds. he was at 83% then 86% in his last 2 seasons. It would drive many fans nuts the amount of times he'd walk a guy or give up a hit, or even give up a run when coming into the game w/ a 2 or 3 run lead before closing it out. I can't help but imagine that the starting pitchers felt the same uneasiness, carried the thought with them that they needed to last as long as possible to ensure that they'll get the win.

    Meanwhile, Aroldis has saved 88% of his chances this season. You don't think it sits in the back of Cueto's mind when he took the mound in the 8th against the cubbies w/ a 3 run lead the other night that all he needed to do was get the next 3 outs. He could use everything he had left, b/c he knew the 9th was safe.

    Perhaps I'm giving that mentality too much credit, but I would think it would have to make a worlds of difference knowing you've got an absolutely guy w/ absolutely filthy stuff like Chapman vs a guy you felt was "just getting by" like Coco often appeared to do.
    I'm not saying that stuff doesn't matter. I'm saying I'm not sure that matters enough to pass on seeing if he could be an ace starter.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Puca, you've put into words my exact question. I think everyone recognizes that no matter how good the closer, he's not as valuable as the equivalently excellent starting pitcher.

    But what if as a starter, Chapman wouldn't be Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez, he's more like a Homer Bailey or Mike Leake. Someone who is probably above average, but perhaps not quite all-star level.

    In order to answer that you need to answer two questions: 1) WHo's going to replace the starter if not Aroldis, and 2) Who's going to replace Aroldis if he becomes a starter.

    Without knowing the answer to those questions, it's hard to pin down exactly what they should do with him other than prepare him to do both very well.

    But it impossible to know the answer before doing the experiment. Just as it was impossible for the Expos and Mariners to know that Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson would be TOR pitchers when they were moved. If you want to win big sometimes you have to roll the dice.

    I personally don't think the Reds have a strong playoff starting staff. I see one possible TOR starter and 4 MOR staters. That is why I am looking for an upgrade for 2013. And the only upgrade I see being affordable is Chapman.

  10. #159
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    If one reliever saves 34 of 35 games and another reliever saves 34 of 35 games what's the difference?

    The guy can be flashy or dominating or make things interesting or whatever but the bottom line for a closer is simply to save the win. It doesn't matter if it's Chapman or Broxton or Madson or whoever. The goal is the same. And the goal isn't to see how many flashbulbs go off when he pitches. The only goal for a closer is to save the win.

    Replace a closer with a 97% save percentage with another closer also with a 97% save percentage and you lose part of your argument.
    Got a name? Who is this 97% guy who is so readily available? Cordero is probably gonna be out there.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #160
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Got a name? Who is this 97% guy who is so readily available? Cordero is probably gonna be out there.
    Well, a guy that the Reds have the ability to keep under contract for next season, Ryan Madson, saved 32 of 34 games for the Phillies last season.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #161
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    But it impossible to know the answer before doing the experiment. Just as it was impossible for the Expos and Mariners to know that Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson would be TOR pitchers when they were moved. If you want to win big sometimes you have to roll the dice.

    I personally don't think the Reds have a strong playoff starting staff. I see one possible TOR starter and 4 MOR staters. That is why I am looking for an upgrade for 2013. And the only upgrade I see being affordable is Chapman.
    This is where I disagree. I think Cueto and Latos are tough matches for anyone. I think they have a better chance using the tactic the Rangers and Cardinals used last year. Starter goes 4 or 5 and then a fresh arm over and over. The looks keep changing and the team shuts the opponent down. I'm pretty sure with the guys coming back plus Chapman they'll have that option. OTOH, if Chapman moves to the rotation he may be another of the MOR starters that you speak of (or worse) and suddenly the wave after wave of relievers to shorten the game looks much less imposing. A bird in the hand....

    I just think Chapman has as much chance of being ho hum or worse as a starter as he has of being the next Randy Johnson. He's already Goose Gossage (but probably better). No question mark attached.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #162
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Well, a guy that the Reds have the ability to keep under contract for next season, Ryan Madson, saved 32 of 34 games for the Phillies last season.
    Gonna pay him $11 Million? If you don't invoke the option he'll hit the market IMO. Who is his agent again? Oh yeah.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #163
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Gonna pay him $11 Million? If you don't invoke the option he'll hit the market IMO. Who is his agent again? Oh yeah.
    OK so he hits the market. He's already said he'd like to re-sign with the Reds. So maybe they sign him to a $7 million deal. I'd do it. It's not like he's going to get $50 million on the open market anyhow.

    Worst-case scenario, maybe Chapman as a starter strikes out 10-12 guys per nine innings instead of 17. He'd still be better than anyone the Reds have, with all due respect to Cueto and Latos.

    Even assuming he won't be *quite* as dominant as a starter as a reliever, I'd rather he strike out 10-12 guys per nine innings over the course of 180-200 than 17 per 80. And that's assuming he takes that big of a drop as a starter. He might not do that.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #164
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    OK so he hits the market. He's already said he'd like to re-sign with the Reds. So maybe they sign him to a $7 million deal. I'd do it. It's not like he's going to get $50 million on the open market anyhow.

    Worst-case scenario, maybe Chapman as a starter strikes out 10-12 guys per nine innings instead of 17. He'd still be better than anyone the Reds have, with all due respect to Cueto and Latos.

    Even assuming he won't be *quite* as dominant as a starter as a reliever, I'd rather he strike out 10-12 guys per nine innings over the course of 180-200 than 17 per 80. And that's assuming he takes that big of a drop as a starter. He might not do that.
    Where we disagree is in the worst case scenario. IMO, the worst case scenario is that Chapman doesn't have the secondary stuff to get hitters out more than once per game, his velocity doesn't hold up past 40 pitches and he routinely gets blown off the mound in the middle innings. I think your worst case is making a huge, huge, huge, (I can't emphasize how huge) assumption. Facing a line-up multiple times in a game is an entirely different thing than throwing it by everyone for 20 pitches or so. We have no idea whatsoever how he'd fare as a starter.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #165
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Where we disagree is in the worst case scenario. IMO, the worst case scenario is that Chapman doesn't have the secondary stuff to get hitters out more than once per game, his velocity doesn't hold up past 40 pitches and he routinely gets blown off the mound in the middle innings. I think your worst case is making a huge, huge, huge, (I can't emphasize how huge) assumption. Facing a line-up multiple times in a game is an entirely different thing than throwing it by everyone for 20 pitches or so.
    Under normal circumstances when it's a matter of figuring a guy out, that might be true. But Aroldis isn't fooling anyone. He's not been successful based on guys not figuring him out. He's not doing anything special whatsoever. Like Hanigan said the other day, 90% of the time, hitters know exactly what's coming. They simply can't hit it. This guy's fastball is truly special because of the release point and the way it pops out of his hand from a shorter distance. I don't care if guys face it once a night or four times a night... they're not going to hit it very often.

    Also, while we're talking about assumptions, I don't know how you can possibly say his velocity doesn't hold up past 40 pitches. There is not even remotely enough of a sample size to suggest that. He's not started a single game at this level, and only has a couple dozen starts in the minors.

    I don't see how anyone could reasonably expect his K-rate to dip into single digits as a starter for any extended period of time. You don't go from striking out 17 guys to less than half that, even taking into account a small difference as a starter.

    And to be perfectly honest, Aroldis' velocity as a reliever seems to do better after he's gotten warmed up and sometimes when he's pitching a second or third straight day. I'd be surprised if his velocity dips as much as you're suggesting.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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