Aroldis Chapman and history

[powersackers]

Can we have one AC thread w/o the SP/RP debate? He IS the most dominating closer in baseball. At SP sure he may have been dominate, but there are a lot of variables that could have made him mediocre. Lower velocity, addition of a weaker third pitch. Batters timing in the 2nd and third time through the order. Tons of variables

IS > May have been > Could have

[Mario-Rijo]

Can we have one AC thread w/o the SP/RP debate? He IS the most dominating closer in baseball. At SP sure he may have been dominate, but there are a lot of variables that could have made him mediocre. Lower velocity, addition of a weaker third pitch. Batters timing in the 2nd and third time through the order. Tons of variables

IS > May have been > Could have

Some might argue Kimbrel is, he is a bit more established. Personally though I like Aroldis.

[Homer Bailey]

Cueto had a better year than Leake in 2011. He is the only Reds' starting pitcher that could say that.

Leake had a better 2011 season than Bailey.

Leake: 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 167.2 IP.

Bailey: 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP in just 112 IP.

1. Cueto
2. Leake
3. Bailey
4. Arroyo
5. Wood

So, who are these mystery three pitchers that pitched better than Leake last year? Cueto and who else? Who are the other two?

For the record, I think Bailey is better than Leake right now, but we're talking about just the 2011 season.

Wood and Bailey both had better FIP's than Leake last year, which is a much better predictor of future success than ERA. xFIP was a different story, but it's not fair to say Leake was 2nd best and that it wasn't even close.

[Mario-Rijo]

Wood and Bailey both had better FIP's than Leake last year, which is a much better predictor of future success than ERA. xFIP was a different story, but it's not fair to say Leake was 2nd best and that it wasn't even close.

Might be a better predictor of future success but it's a poorer indicator of present production than what his actual #'s were. In which case (and especially if you add in IP) what he said was about right, Leake was the 2nd best starter for them last year.

[VR]

I love a pitcher that can control BABIP.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Might be a better predictor of future success but it's a poorer indicator of present production than what his actual #'s were. In which case (and especially if you add in IP) what he said was about right, Leake was the 2nd best starter for them last year.

Thank you. Unless you want to argue with the facts, Mike Leake was clearly the Reds' second-best starting pitcher in 2011.

Also, Aroldis Chapman is fantastic. Like I said, I was adamant that he should be a starter. But now that he's settled in as one of the game's elite closers? I'm good with that. Especially considering the fact that the Reds' starting rotation is one of the best in MLB 1-5.

[Mario-Rijo]

Hard to argue much with what Aroldis has done on the field I just hope he keeps it together off the field.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Yeah, I say we just enjoy the ride. The guy isn't just having a "great" year as a closer. He's having one of the best seasons in MLB history. Let that marinate for a minute. (And there's no guarantee we'd be saying the same thing if he was a starter.)

[buckeyenut]

Couple of other things of note. Chapman allowed runs in 5 out of 7 games in a brief 17 day stretch in June. The rest of the year, he hasn't allowed an earned run and only one unearned run.

Since his "bad" stretch, Chapman has been even more amazing. 9.1 innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 23 Ks, 7 saves. Before the bad stretch, 29 innings, 7 hits, 9 BB, 52 Ks.

Let me say that again a little more bluntly. As historically amazing as Chapman was before his bad stretch in June, he has been BETTER since, on a pace for 1/3 less walks, fewer hits and ~4K per nine higher than before if I did the math right in my head.

As much as I am still incredibly curious about how well he would do in the rotation, there is NO WAY IN THE WORLD I would move him out of the pen this year. Our starting pitching staff has been incredible this year, the bullpen has been great as well. I want those weapons lined up ready to go in the playoffs.

I really think this team is set up very well to win big in playoffs, which is why I think we will see a big trade over the next month and why we will see Hamilton come up end of August. I think that kid will be on our playoff roster somehow.

[buckeyenut]

While on this topic, which season is better (assuming for a second Chapman finishes year maintaining current pace), Chapman or Eckersley in 1990. Eck was 4-2, with 0.61 ERA, 48 saves, 73 K, 4 BB in 73.1 innings..

I think that historically, that is the season Chappy is chasing.

[Scrap Irony]

What's interesting is that, should Chapman continue on this pace, he's got to be considered among the favorites for Cy Young.

An ERA in the low 1.00's with historically high Ks and H/9 numbers in a year with no clear-cut dominator? Perfect storm for the first Red to win ever.

[MasonBuzz3]

What's interesting is that, should Chapman continue on this pace, he's got to be considered among the favorites for Cy Young.

An ERA in the low 1.00's with historically high Ks and H/9 numbers in a year with no clear-cut dominator? Perfect storm for the first Red to win ever.

that would be awesome, but I am not sure that AC will get the sheer # of saves needed to get the voters approval. But if he keeps getting five saves every six days....

[VR]

What's interesting is that, should Chapman continue on this pace, he's got to be considered among the favorites for Cy Young.

An ERA in the low 1.00's with historically high Ks and H/9 numbers in a year with no clear-cut dominator? Perfect storm for the first Red to win ever.

If those were the stakes, Kimbrel would win by a landslide this year.

Chappy has to pile on the saves and avoid another drought to have a shot.

[Kc61]

I would be reluctant to move Chapman from the closer's spot. He should be the closer for the foreseeable future. He is a great closer, and IMO he gets a high level of credit for the Reds good won lost record. I haven't seen much discussion about Mariano Rivera going into the Yankee's rotation.

IMO the Reds overall bullpen seems better than it is because of Chapman's amazing performance. Marshall has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. Arredondo and Ondrusek walk a lot of guys, and Logan can be quite hittable. Lecure and Simon are good longer men, but I don't see them as late innings stoppers. Bray is still shaky, but give him credit for that entertaining (and scoreless) adventure the other night.

Masset had a sub-par 2011, I don't know what folks expect from him when he returns. Hoover misses a lot of bats, but is an extreme fly ball pitcher, we'll see how he works out.

Chapman has been amazing. The guy as of today has a WHIP of .69, has 84 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. I know he had that bad stretch, but right now he is as dominant as any closer I have ever seen. He deserves a complimentary thread, like this one.

[Bumstead]

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