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Thread: Aroldis Chapman and history

  1. #46
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #47
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.
    The devil you know...
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  4. #48
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The thing is, you can undo the "trade" at any time. You don't lose "Aroldis Chapman, dominant closer" unless you gain a more valuable starter in return. Sure, there's some point at which a change back would make sense. But to not take the shot seems unnecessarily conservative.
    These are my thoughts too. I say keep him as your closer the rest of this year and next year just lay it out there that we are using him as a starter until he shows he isn't valuable as one.

    It has been bananas watching him in the ninth inning (is it just me, or does it look like there is genuine worry in the faces of a few of the batters?), but a 17 K/9 speaks for itself. There's a really good chance we have an ace on our hands. And not an is-he-or-isn't-he-Cueto-style ace, a no-doubt, throw-in-the-towel-and-let's-get-em-tomorrow ace. I'd hate to never know for sure.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  5. #49
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    I just have to say, Chapman to the rotation means Leake or Bailey to the pen or traded. There are a lot of issues to be worked out before he gets to the rotation. If Cingrani and Corcino appear ready for AAA next year that will help Chapman.

  6. #50
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.
    If it's a guarantee that he could replicate that dominance over 200 innings, it'd be a no brainer. However, I'm not sure he could do that throwing mostly fastballs and the occasional slider.

    If he threw 70 innings this year, would the Reds let him go 200 next year, or would it be a slow build (Verducci effect) ... 120 ... 160 ... etc.?
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

  7. #51
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I just have to say, Chapman to the rotation means Leake or Bailey to the pen or traded. There are a lot of issues to be worked out before he gets to the rotation. If Cingrani and Corcino appear ready for AAA next year that will help Chapman.
    I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  8. #52
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.
    Mike Leake as the closer? No thanks. I'll take our 3rd best rotation in the league, and number one ranked bullpen. I'm not messing with success for the rest or this season. Anyone remember Randy Myers the starter from 1991? Try it in the early part of next year if you want. I'll take 57-40.

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  9. #53
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Mike Leake as the closer? No thanks. I'll take our 3rd best rotation in the league, and number one ranked bullpen. I'm not messing with success for the rest or this season. Anyone remember Randy Myers the starter from 1991? Try it in the early part of next year if you want. I'll take 57-40.
    No, no. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't touch the staff this season. I'm talking about coming out of spring training next year.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  10. #54
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    If it's a guarantee that he could replicate that dominance over 200 innings, it'd be a no brainer. However, I'm not sure he could do that throwing mostly fastballs and the occasional slider.

    If he threw 70 innings this year, would the Reds let him go 200 next year, or would it be a slow build (Verducci effect) ... 120 ... 160 ... etc.?
    I think this hits the nail on the head. Call me skeptical that Chapman can replicate his results as a closer if moved to the rotation. All I've seen from him of late is an amazing fastball and an iffy slider. That amazing fastball gets a little less amazing when opposing batters see it three times in a game instead of ten times in a season.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  11. #55
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    No, no. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't touch the staff this season. I'm talking about coming out of spring training next year.


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  12. #56
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    I think this hits the nail on the head. Call me skeptical that Chapman can replicate his results as a closer if moved to the rotation. All I've seen from him of late is an amazing fastball and an iffy slider. That amazing fastball gets a little less amazing when opposing batters see it three times in a game instead of ten times in a season.
    I would disagree that the slider is iffy. He hasn't thrown it much, but he hasn't had to for reasons you stated above. Fangraphs has it at 88 mph with hard movement and a K rate in the 60s. People keep comparing his stuff to Randy Johnson's, and it'd be hard to convince me without seeing it that he wouldn't be extremely effective as a starter with two plus pitches and a developing changeup.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  13. #57
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.
    I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.

  14. #58
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.
    I agree. He really needs to be given a chance to start next season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  15. #59
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.
    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I agree. He really needs to be given a chance to start next season.
    I'd like him in whatever position will help the Reds win the most games.

    He's having a near historic season as a closer.

    I'm happy with what he is right now.

  16. #60
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The thing is, you can undo the "trade" at any time. You don't lose "Aroldis Chapman, dominant closer" unless you gain a more valuable starter in return. Sure, there's some point at which a change back would make sense. But to not take the shot seems unnecessarily conservative.
    With the unknown of how a pitcher may react to change like that, there is no guarantee that we would not lose Aroldis Chapman, Closer Extraordinaire.


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