Turn Off Ads?
Page 5 of 16 FirstFirst 12345678915 ... LastLast
Results 61 to 75 of 240

Thread: Aroldis Chapman and history

  1. #61
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,792

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    With the unknown of how a pitcher may react to change like that, there is no guarantee that we would not lose Aroldis Chapman, Closer Extraordinaire.
    I feel like preparing as a starter, even if he fails, does nothing but make him better as a closer. He spent all spring working as a starter this year, and is having far and away the best season of his career in the bullpen. It's his time spent in the bullpen that's hurting his chances as a starter; not the other way around IMO.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #62
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,295

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    With the unknown of how a pitcher may react to change like that, there is no guarantee that we would not lose Aroldis Chapman, Closer Extraordinaire.
    Chapman is 18 of 22 this year (saves/(saves+blown saves)). That is just 82%. Of the 16 pitchers with at least 12 saves this year, that ranks 11th.

  4. #63
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    South Vienna, OH
    Posts
    4,371

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Chapman is 18 of 22 this year (saves/(saves+blown saves)). That is just 82%. Of the 16 pitchers with at least 12 saves this year, that ranks 11th.
    Those stats don't indicate how much of a game-changer he is at the back of the bullpen.

  5. #64
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    16,000

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Those stats don't indicate how much of a game-changer he is at the back of the bullpen.
    How is he "changing the game" in a way that's not reflected there. Whether he strikes out the side or gives up two hits a walk and run, if the outcome of the game is a win, what's the difference?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #65
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    I dunno. Chapman had one rough stretch when he also was dealing with personal stuff off the field. If people are honest, he is the most dominant closer in baseball, other than that short of period of time with the one rough stretch. This is one of those situations where the eyes, not stats, apply.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  7. #66
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    The Bush Leagues
    Posts
    9,118

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    How is he "changing the game" in a way that's not reflected there. Whether he strikes out the side or gives up two hits a walk and run, if the outcome of the game is a win, what's the difference?
    The difference is a 1.54 ERA and giving the other guys only eight frames to score.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  8. #67
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Chapman is 18 of 22 this year (saves/(saves+blown saves)). That is just 82%. Of the 16 pitchers with at least 12 saves this year, that ranks 11th.
    Maybe we should trade him for Joel Hanrahan.

  9. #68
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    1,045

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Has this thread really gone five pages without mention of Daniel Bard?

    Before the season, the Reds and the Red Sox each had new closers supported by high-strikeout, mildly control-challenged flamethrowing setup men who had histories as starters. Before the season, each of the Reds and the Red Sox anticipated converting their high-strikeout setup men to starters. Before the season, each of the Reds and the Red Sox had their expected closers go down for injury. The Reds kept their setup man in the pen, where he thrived. The Red Sox continued the conversion, and their setup man flamed out as a starter in MLB, continued to flame as a start in AAA, and now is trying to regain his relieving groove. Put simply, the Red Sox took an asset and squandered it for the whole year.

    There is no reasonable question that Chapman's value would be the highest as a a Randy-Johnson-like starter -- if he can do it. But that is a big if -- as is the re-conversion to reliever if starting doesn't suit.

    With the benefit of hindsight, it seems pretty clear that the Reds have handled Chapman in the way that has maximized his value to the club -- and the value of the Reds' other pitching assets -- this year.

    2013 is a different story. Let's enjoy this ride while we can.

  10. #69
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,565

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am not saying do it now. But if you have the potential to add a Justin Verlander type of pitcher to your team, you do it, regardless of how well Mike Leake or Bronson Arroyo are pitching.
    I agree, Doug.

    Given the choice of having a Justin Verlander pitcher over 200 innings or Craig Kimbrel pitch 85, I go with Verlander for over 200.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  11. #70
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I agree, Doug.

    Given the choice of having a Justin Verlander pitcher over 200 innings or Craig Kimbrel pitch 85, I go with Verlander for over 200.
    Another way to look at it would be, if you have a million bucks in your pocket are you flying to Vegas to throw it on black?

  12. #71
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    16,000

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Another way to look at it would be, if you have a million bucks in your pocket are you flying to Vegas to throw it on black?
    In Vegas you have a 49% chance of doubling your money and 51% chance losing it all.

    In this situation, the odds are much different. Let's call the upside still 2x value. What are the possibilities?

    20% you double up the value
    30% you go up 1.5x
    30% you hold steady
    20% you go down by .5
    10% you lose it all

    We can play with the math as much as we want. I think the above is generously conservative. The upside is more than 2x and I don't see a 10% chance of complete loss. I think the downside risk is basically getting put back in the bullpen. Short of injury, I can't see why it would harm him otherwise. But even the conservative scenario above, the expected return is a gain of 25%.

    If I won a million bucks and was asked if I want to roll the dice -- when rolling the dice produces, on average, a 25% return, I'd do that in a heartbeat.

    I think the heart of the matter here is that you see there being a very significant chance Chapman gets ruined in the process. I certainly don't and I doubt Doug does.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-25-2012 at 04:21 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #72
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,792

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    The difference is a 1.54 ERA and giving the other guys only eight frames to score.
    I agree Chapman's been better than his save percentage indicates, but Doug's right in that save percentage is really the only way to retrospectively judge closer's production.

  14. #73
    Member Superdude's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,792

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Another way to look at it would be, if you have a million bucks in your pocket are you flying to Vegas to throw it on black?
    Why do you believe him spending time as a starter takes away what he can do in the bullpen? From my view, it's like throwing a million dollars on black, the ball landing on red, and getting my million dollars back. A bet you take every time right?

  15. #74
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    1,045

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Why do you believe him spending time as a starter takes away what he can do in the bullpen? From my view, it's like throwing a million dollars on black, the ball landing on red, and getting my million dollars back. A bet you take every time right?
    Daniel Bard says otherwise.

  16. #75
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Daniel Bard says otherwise.
    Neftali Feliz also encountered arm issues this year. No idea if it was related to the move to the rotation, but you never know.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25