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Thread: Aroldis Chapman and history

  1. #91
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Adam Wainwright anyone? Closer to starter...he's done ok for a Cardinal. Of course Chapman's ceiling is higher than Wainwright's, so I am at a loss as to why we would even consider such silliness... I mean, just think, if he succeeds he could dethrone Cueto as the ace of the staff and give us a true Ace and make the Reds a real threat in the playoffs. If he marginally succeeds he turns into only a #2 or #3 starter and improves our rotation into the best in the NL. If it doesn't work, then he goes back to the circus act of being a closer, which Coco Cordero, Bob Wickman, Antonio Alfonseca, Jeff Brantley and countless other guys with mediocre stuff proved that they could turn into a successful repertoire as a Closer...yeah, just like roulette...

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  3. #92
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    Here's my $0.02 when it comes to considering a move for Chapman from bullpen to rotation
    You sure do have a way with cypherin'.

    Steady-eddy starters and a clamp-down bullpen isn't a bad way to go.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  4. #93
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    I could only find one website that discussed his numbers as a starter in the minors. Seamheads.com showed that his numbers as a starter were significantly less thrilling than his numbers as a reliever: FIP- 4.01 vs 1.92, BAA- .244 vs .159, WHIP- 1.46 vs 0.96, and also better numbers in HR/9, GB%, and IFF%. Obviously, this was a very small sample size.
    That was also when he was 22 years old, straight out of Cuba, and 185lbs. I saw him start a few times in the minors, and I'm pretty confident saying he'd be significantly better now than he was then.

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I'm pretty confident saying he'd be significantly better now than he was then.
    How much better? What kind of upgrade would he be over, say, Leake. And is that worth muddying up the closer picture?
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Daniel Bard is a tough example to use. Neither Bard nor Chapman did a whole lot of minor league time, but in Bard's time in the minors as a starter, he was brutal. In 2007, at age 22 in A ball (he split Low and High A that year) he walked 78 batters and struck out 48 in 75 innings as a starter and had an ERA over 7.00. He never started again in the minors until this season.

    Chapman on the other hand, at the same age in AAA, as a starter, walked 40 and struck out 76 in 65.2 innings.

    The two guys are a very tough comparison because of things like that.
    Hard to see how any of that is relevant. The proposition is taking hard-throwing relievers with sustained major league success and converting them to starters. The Red Sox took a valuable asset in Bard and flat-out wrecked him, not just as a starter but as a reliever, too. And that is despite Bard having (a) experience and pedigree as a starter in college, (b) a four-pitch pitching arsenal, and (c) better control as a reliever than Chapman had in 2011.

    Now, I happen agree that the Reds can and should try to make the conversion in the next offseason, situation permitting. The upside is worth the risk, at least if you are talking about a spring regimen like this year's.

    But I find the assertions that the conversion is a no-risk proposition as hollow, if not willfully blind, and the braying about how the Reds have midhandled Chapman's role on the staff borders on the grotesque. It is easy to say when the Reds are riding high, but this is an organization that has made a lot of really, really good decisions -- including some really good decisions involving Chapman, starting with his signing.

    Mostly I now just hope that he is not overused.

  7. #96
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    How much better? What kind of upgrade would he be over, say, Leake. And is that worth muddying up the closer picture?
    I'm just saying that what he did right out of Cuba as a rail thin 22 year old in AAA might not be the best indication of his ability as a starter. As for whether or not it's worth it, that's an argument we could probably go 'round and 'round on for ages.

  8. #97
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Cueto has 103K this season, Chapman has 90. That's pretty cool. Anyway, nice little article on Chapman over at fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ikeout-things/
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  9. #98
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Hard to see how any of that is relevant. The proposition is taking hard-throwing relievers with sustained major league success and converting them to starters. The Red Sox took a valuable asset in Bard and flat-out wrecked him, not just as a starter but as a reliever, too. And that is despite Bard having (a) experience and pedigree as a starter in college, (b) a four-pitch pitching arsenal, and (c) better control as a reliever than Chapman had in 2011.

    Now, I happen agree that the Reds can and should try to make the conversion in the next offseason, situation permitting. The upside is worth the risk, at least if you are talking about a spring regimen like this year's.

    But I find the assertions that the conversion is a no-risk proposition as hollow, if not willfully blind, and the braying about how the Reds have midhandled Chapman's role on the staff borders on the grotesque. It is easy to say when the Reds are riding high, but this is an organization that has made a lot of really, really good decisions -- including some really good decisions involving Chapman, starting with his signing.

    Mostly I now just hope that he is not overused.
    You don't see how it is relevant that Daniel Bard failed as a starter when the only other time he was used as a starter as a professional he was beyond terrible and that at the same age, fresh out of Cuba and two to three levels higher Chapman performed much, much, much better?

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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You don't see how it is relevant that Daniel Bard failed as a starter when the only other time he was used as a starter as a professional he was beyond terrible and that at the same age, fresh out of Cuba and two to three levels higher Chapman performed much, much, much better?
    Not when the question is whether a reliever conversion is a heads-I-win, tails-we-play-again scenario. The point I was using Bard for was not Bard's specific success or failure as a starter, but rather the impact the conversion attempt had on his value as a reliever. In short, the Red Sox took a high-leverage arm and turned it into nothing. A similar result with Chapman would have a great impact on the Reds organization.

    As for the likelihood of success of a conversion, though, that's worth further thought. This thread, and recent history, have Bard and Feliz identified as failures (so far) in converting power relievers into starters. I'll put Norm Charlton in the "success" column. Who are the other successes?

  11. #100
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Do not know if it has been mentioned... Chapman's stats this year against only NL teams:

    * 42.1 IP, 1 ER, 82 K, 13 BB, 13 H, 0.21 ERA, 0.61 WHIP.
    >> 64.5% of outs via the K.
    >> 52.9% of batters faced K.
    >> 32 games w/ 1 IP, 28 of them at least 2 Ks.

    Are you kidding me? Can this be the most dominating 4 months EVER against NL hitters?
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  12. #101
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Not when the question is whether a reliever conversion is a heads-I-win, tails-we-play-again scenario. The point I was using Bard for was not Bard's specific success or failure as a starter, but rather the impact the conversion attempt had on his value as a reliever. In short, the Red Sox took a high-leverage arm and turned it into nothing. A similar result with Chapman would have a great impact on the Reds organization.

    As for the likelihood of success of a conversion, though, that's worth further thought. This thread, and recent history, have Bard and Feliz identified as failures (so far) in converting power relievers into starters. I'll put Norm Charlton in the "success" column. Who are the other successes?
    Its an interesting question. Off the top of my head I would say Chris Sale this year, Adam Wainwright, CJ Wilson, Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano. I am sure there are hundreds of good relievers that went on to become good starters. It used to be common for young pitchers to begin their careers in the bullpen until they earned the right to start games, of course back then relievers used to throw more than one inning per game.

    Some relievers are bad candidates to be starters. If they have a max-effort delivery, poor stamina, or a funky delivery like Sergio Romo, Mike Adams or Kenley Jansen or if they throw mostly hard sliders like Carlos Marmol or if they have strong platoon splits they should stay as relievers. If you have a guy with a smooth delivery and plenty of athletic ability you could be missing out on an extra hundred innings of top-notch run prevention every year if you don't try him as a starter.

    Like most relief pitchers, Mariano Rivera was a failed starting pitcher. He really only throws one pitch, the cut fastball that he throws about 85% of the time. That one pitch is awesome though.

    I believe Aroldis Chapman has plenty of size, athletic ability, stamina and a smooth pitching motion that should allow him to throw 100+ pitches per game without undo strain. He already has two devastating pitches and just needs to refine his change-up. I also think pitching every 5th day will be better for the long term health of his arm compared to pitching in 80 games per year and warming up another 20 times. When you have stuff as wicked as the Missile it is less important to have a wide variety of pitches. He can thrive as a starter with the arsenal he has right now. If he expands his offerings he will only get better. I don't worry about players hitting Aroldis Chapman. I only worry that he could self-destruct with wildness. His success or failure depends on him alone, not the hitters. If he stays healthy and throws strikes he will be awesome in whatever role he plays.

    If he does get moved into the rotation next year or whenever, it will be Bronson Arroyo's spot he will take -- not Leake's or Bailey's. Arroyo is already the worst pitcher the Reds have and he is not getting any better at his age, and he will be gone after next season regardless.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 07-26-2012 at 09:51 PM.

  13. #102
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Its an interesting question. Off the top of my head I would say Chris Sale this year, Adam Wainwright, CJ Wilson, Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano. I am sure there are hundreds of good relievers that went on to become good starters. It used to be common for young pitchers to begin their careers in the bullpen until they earned the right to start games, of course back then relievers used to throw more than one inning per game.
    Sale's a really good example. Wainwright too. Wilson, Santana and Liriano were all long relievers, perhaps Wilson less than the others, which is a different conversion in my mind. Interesting that most of your examples, plus mine (Charlton) are lefties.

    I'm not sure that it would be very illuminating to look at Nolan Ryan or other conversions from the era before the modern, specialized bullpen.

  14. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Its an interesting question. Off the top of my head I would say Chris Sale this year, Adam Wainwright, CJ Wilson, Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano. I am sure there are hundreds of good relievers that went on to become good starters. It used to be common for young pitchers to begin their careers in the bullpen until they earned the right to start games, of course back then relievers used to throw more than one inning per game.

    Some relievers are bad candidates to be starters. If they have a max-effort delivery, poor stamina, or a funky delivery like Sergio Romo, Mike Adams or Kenley Jansen or if they throw mostly hard sliders like Carlos Marmol or if they have strong platoon splits they should stay as relievers. If you have a guy with a smooth delivery and plenty of athletic ability you could be missing out on an extra hundred innings of top-notch run prevention every year if you don't try him as a starter.

    Like most relief pitchers, Mariano Rivera was a failed starting pitcher. He really only throws one pitch, the cut fastball that he throws about 85% of the time. That one pitch is awesome though.

    I believe Aroldis Chapman has plenty of size, athletic ability, stamina and a smooth pitching motion that should allow him to throw 100+ pitches per game without undo strain. He already has two devastating pitches and just needs to refine his change-up. I also think pitching every 5th day will be better for the long term health of his arm compared to pitching in 80 games per year and warming up another 20 times. When you have stuff as wicked as the Missile it is less important to have a wide variety of pitches. He can thrive as a starter with the arsenal he has right now. If he expands his offerings he will only get better. I don't worry about players hitting Aroldis Chapman. I only worry that he could self-destruct with wildness. His success or failure depends on him alone, not the hitters. If he stays healthy and throws strikes he will be awesome in whatever role he plays.

    If he does get moved into the rotation next year or whenever, it will be Bronson Arroyo's spot he will take -- not Leake's or Bailey's. Arroyo is already the worst pitcher the Reds have and he is not getting any better at his age, and he will be gone after next season regardless.
    You do know that all of those pitchers you listed, with the exception of Sale had long histories of being starters in the minor leagues, right?

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  15. #104
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    Since June 26 (last 21 appearances)

    20 2/3 IP
    0 runs
    8 hits
    3 walks
    44 strikeouts (15:1 strikeout/walk ratio)
    .114 BAA
    .173 OBP
    .143 SLG
    .316 OPS

    He's only surrendered an earned run in one out of five months pitched to this point. If my math is correct, he's struck out 44 of his last 72 batters faced. This guy is just surreal. If he ever finds a legitimate third pitch -- hopefully a changeup -- good morning, good afternoon and good night.
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-11-2012 at 08:13 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #105
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    Re: Aroldis Chapman and history

    If this keeps up could a case be made that he is the MVP of the Reds? The NL?
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.


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