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Thread: Trade Targets and Trade Rumors

  1. #46
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Why trade something of value for Josh Willingham when the Reds already have his clone in Ryan Ludwick? According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Willingham is Ludwick, and the third-most similar player to Ludwick is Willingham.

    By age, Ludwick was the tenth-most similar player to Willingham at age 29, the fourth-most-similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the second-most similar at age 32.

    Willingham was the third-most similar player to Ludwick at age 29, the second-most similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the fourth-most similar at age 32.

    Both players are 33 this season.
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  3. #47
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Even if you project the cost for them to decrease heading up to the deadline? Sure you make an offer now, but I imagine the other GM would try to leverage more prospects out of the Reds for an early deal. Every deal is unique, no doubt .
    Just using some names for illustration, but if the idea is to deal Didi Gregorious at the deadline to obtain a guy like Dejesus, I'd certainly be willing to add a Nick Christiani or a Chris Valaika to get him now so he could impact more games. Of course, if it would take moving from Gregorious to Billy Hamilton to make it happen now, then you wait.

    Dejesus is probably more valuable to the Reds than his overall line suggests. He's very splitty with an .855 OPS vs. RHP and a below .420 OPS vs. LHP. The Reds have enough lefty killers that he wouldn't need to play when a lefty is on the mound. He'd be a great target and I'd certainly throw in an extra interesting minor leaguer to get it done now.

    There are 18 games on the schedule between now and the deadline. That's 11% of the schedule. If it costs a guy like Christiani to address the team's primary weakness now rather than waiting, its worth it IMO. Remember, it not only gets him sooner, but it also ensures they get him at all. Of course, the Cubs could still be unwilling to pull the trigger unless compeltely blown away. I don't think a guy gets to be a successful major league GM by being unrealistic though. He knows he's not going to get a top 100 prospect for Dejesus. I can't imagine he'd be holding out for something crippling in order to pull the trigger now.

    The other possibility is that the Reds are holding out hoping they can get something better. Maybe they prefer Span (I do at this point) and a working on a deal for him and are waiting on a guy like Dejesus (or Juan Pierre) as a fall back.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-11-2012 at 06:11 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #48
    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    Why trade something of value for Josh Willingham when the Reds already have his clone in Ryan Ludwick? According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Willingham is Ludwick, and the third-most similar player to Ludwick is Willingham.

    By age, Ludwick was the tenth-most similar player to Willingham at age 29, the fourth-most-similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the second-most similar at age 32.

    Willingham was the third-most similar player to Ludwick at age 29, the second-most similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the fourth-most similar at age 32.

    Both players are 33 this season.
    I don't know how baseball-ref does their comps, but these two career OPS splits against RHP/LHP look pretty different:

    Willingham: .826/.892
    Ludwick: .798/.763

    Ludwick is having a rebound season this year, but will he end the season OPSing over .800? Willingham has had 6 straight seasons of .800+ OPS since his rookie year, and this year should be his 7th.

    Willingham solves the LF problem for more than just 2012, Ludwick doesn't.

    But still...Willingham is probably too expensive.

  5. #49
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Boston radio is convinced Ryan Sweeney will be dealt in the next day or two. I've seen elsewhere that folks think the Reds and Boston match up well, though I don't know how that might work (perhaps Janish?). Sweeney doesn't do much for me. Would much rather see them get a LH/top of the order bat like Victorino or Pierre.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #50
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    If we're talking Boston, I don't know much about Sweeney. However, I'd love to pick up Nava, and according to MLBTR, he's possibly available. Nava would make a great #2 hole hitter. He'd have to play LF though.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  7. #51
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Being hung up on Willingham is likely a waste of time. The Twins aren't listening.

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...sh-willingham/
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  8. #52
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    Why trade something of value for Josh Willingham when the Reds already have his clone in Ryan Ludwick? According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Willingham is Ludwick, and the third-most similar player to Ludwick is Willingham.

    By age, Ludwick was the tenth-most similar player to Willingham at age 29, the fourth-most-similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the second-most similar at age 32.

    Willingham was the third-most similar player to Ludwick at age 29, the second-most similar at age 30, the most similar at age 31, and the fourth-most similar at age 32.

    Both players are 33 this season.
    If both are at the very top of their game, Willingham and Ludwick might be quite similar. There is no way that Ludwick will ever be as consistent as Willing ham. Either over the course of a year or from year to year. Not expecting the Reds to acquire JW, just gicing an example of where I'd be willing to include Hamilton. I'd be willing to include Billy for a true TOR also, but not a deadline rental (and that's not happening either).
    Last edited by corkedbat; 07-11-2012 at 01:27 PM.

  9. #53
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    Being hung up on Willingham is likely a waste of time. The Twins aren't listening.

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...sh-willingham/
    That could be posturing, it is way to early for the Twins to pull anyone off the trading block IMO.
    Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!

  10. #54
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    This from the Sundeck. Really makes no sense at all unless it would be just to play in LOU.

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  11. #55
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Shane Victorino as the CF/leadoff hitter the Reds need?

    Discuss.

  12. #56
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Shane Victorino as the CF/leadoff hitter the Reds need?

    Discuss.
    I like Victorino, but he's having a very mediocre season and unless the Phils are willing to let hi got for far less than I expect, I'd rather go after someone like Fowler or Spann.

  13. #57
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfan320 View Post
    This from the Sundeck. Really makes no sense at all unless it would be just to play in LOU.

    320
    Is he physically sound? I had the same thought as one responder - can another team talk to a player unless it is possibly a 72-hour negotiation window? Capps is due about $2.25M for the rest of the year with a $6M option next year (and a $250K buyout). I don't think there's alot to this unless the Reds are going to be big time deals - ie- Chapman to the rotation and Bailey or Leake in a deal for an impact bat- and I don't see that happening. If it did occur, I'd expect a deal that included Spann.

    Semi-interesting factoid: Matt's middle name is Dicus.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 07-11-2012 at 01:47 PM.

  14. #58
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I like Victorino, but he's having a very mediocre season and unless the Phils are willing to let hi got for far less than I expect, I'd rather go after someone like Fowler or Spann.
    I could really care less about a mediocre season. Philly has been a disaster this season and I am sure that can weight on its players.

    Just last season Victorino put up a .355 OBP. That would look real nice replacing .298 out of the leadoff spot. He also is a switch hitter who would give the Reds their 3rd legit left handed hitter. It would take more than a bag of balls to get the deal done, but Victorion of 2011 would be a boost to this Reds team.

  15. #59
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Shane Victorino as the CF/leadoff hitter the Reds need?

    Discuss.
    Yes, that would be a great addition, provided the Reds don't have to drastically overpay. If he could be had for a couple of prospects below the Reds top 5.. most definitely yes.
    Historically, OF do not cost that much at the tradedeadline.. It might be different this year however as a number of contenders need help in the OF.
    Still, he should not be that expensive to acquire.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  16. #60
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trade Rumors

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    What about landing Mark McGwire and the 2002 version of Scott Rolen for peanuts? Also,Jeff Weaver and Ronnie Belliard contributed in the 2006 playoffs.

    The Cardinals farm system at the time all were acquired was considered "barren" and too devoid of talent to acquire any player of significance, but WJ got it done.

    Sure, WJ has his faults, but the fact that he was able to continually supplement his big league roster utilizing what was perceived as a much weaker farm system than today's Reds farm system tells me that he should be able to acquire this team some help at the deadline.
    While true Walt didn't have the salary restrictions in St. Louis that he does in Cincy. Which is why we don't see him making many deals with the Reds.
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