Is the 2012 starting staff the Reds' best all time?

[cumberlandreds]

Isn't it awesome as a Reds fan to be arguing which is the more elite performer, the bullpen or the starters?

Yea, usually its which one sucks the most.

The 1975 bullpen may have been better overall than todays but not by much. Much was made back then that the starters didn't have many complete games. I went back and looked, they had 22 for the entire season which wasn't very many for that time. Now 22 would probably lead the league in the category. That 75 bullpen did rack up the innings. Clay Carroll had 110,Borbon about 100,Eastwick 91 and McEnany 96. Thats a lot for any time period.

[Kc61]

For a closer I completely agree with Kc - whip is a good indicator of a closer - you want a guy who doesn't let baserunners on, in other words, a low whip, and hopefully a high K rate, usually they go hand in hand. ERA is meaningless for relievers, pretty sure we all agree with that, since a single really bad outing can ruin a relievers ERA for a season. I like the depth and quality of the Reds relievers but all of them have warts except Chapman. Marshall can be hittable although he usually keeps it in the park. Arredondo gets wild although he misses bats well. Simon I actually like best next to Chapman. Ondrusek goes from really good to very hittable from outing to outing. Same type of thing on down the list. Chappy is the only one that comes on and I think OK, now this is locked up and I'm really surprised if it isn't.

I feel the same about the rotation though. Cueto is a lock to win - every time he pitches I really expect the Reds will win. I am feeling the same about Bailey lately. Latos I wait to see what Latos shows up - Mr. Dominant or Mr. Inconsistent and Hittable? Arroyo I expect the Reds to be in the game but I expect they'll need to score 3 or 4 runs by the 7th to be tied but not more than that - Arroyo is pretty steady and Leake, well he's about like Arroyo with an occasional great game or stinker tossed in too.

That's all-in-all a great staff. The worst I expect is the 3 to 4 run 6-7 inning start by Leake and Arroyo or the 5 inning 3-4 run start by Latos and those are offset by an equal number of 7 inning 1 run starts by those same pitchers. I always expect 1 or 2 run 7 innings from Cueto and lately Bailey. I think Bailey has become the Reds #2. I also think that's a permanent thing - Homer has found "it".

With Homer that's no rush to judgement - he's been improving incrementally the last year and a half but health has been hampering him. Now we're seeing it all come together. Personally, I think its for real.

Thanks for the response. I guess my only minor disagreement is Latos whose ERA was 5.97 in March/April and since then he's 7-1 with an ERA below 4. Not good every time, but since the early season he's been very solid.

[RedlegJake]

I might be harsh on Latos but his last 2 starts have been pretty bad again. At least bad for this years staff - actually they've been mediocre. But, yes, before that he had a long run of very good starts. Hopefully the last couple starts were just a blip.

[wolfboy]

OK, I will modify my outrage. Any metric that rates the 1982 rotation as the top "anything" from 1974 to 2011 needs to be thrown out on its ear.

#shrug. Doesn't matter to me. I was just pointing out what the data says and what it doesn't say. fWAR holds Soto's '82 season (7.7 WAR) in very high regard, which is a big reason for that total.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

fWAR holds Soto's '82 season (7.7 WAR) in very high regard, which is a big reason for that total.

And rightfully so.

257 IP
274 K
9.6 K/9 (led league)
2.5 BB/9
3.86 K/BB (led league)
13 CG
2 SHO
1.06 WHIP (led league)

And still managed to win 14 games (14-13) on a team that lost 101 games. He probably wins 20-25 games that year on a good team and easily wins the Cy Young award.

I'm not sure there's been a better year from any Reds starter since 1982. I may be forgetting someone, but Danny Jackson ('88), Jose Rijo ('91), and Pete Schourek ('95) had great seasons, but don't come close to matching Soto's 1982 season, IMO.

[fearofpopvol1]

It is incorrect. Fangraphs does not have fWAR for pitchers prior to 1974; therefore, it is inaccurate to say that Fangraphs says the 1982 staff is the best ever. The accurate statement is to say that the 1982 staff had the highest fWAR of any Reds rotation from 1974 through 2011.

I'm not beating up on you when I point that out, but several people have reacted with outrage that Fangraphs would call the 1982 rotation the best ever. The fact is Fangraphs makes no such claim.

What I started was correct. If you're using the WAR metric from Fangraphs, what starting staff had a higher number than the 1982 staff?

[membengal]

And rightfully so.

257 IP
274 K
9.6 K/9 (led league)
2.5 BB/9
3.86 K/BB (led league)
13 CG
2 SHO
1.06 WHIP (led league)

And still managed to win 14 games (14-13) on a team that lost 101 games. He probably wins 20-25 games that year on a good team and easily wins the Cy Young award.

I'm not sure there's been a better year from any Reds starter since 1982. I may be forgetting someone, but Danny Jackson ('88), Jose Rijo ('91), and Pete Schourek ('95) had great seasons, but don't come close to matching Soto's 1982 season, IMO.

It is still, easily in my mind, the greatest single season from a Reds pitcher in my lifetime (I was born in 1970). He was the only reason in a season that was just so staggeringly awful to have hope that the Reds might win. And he was nails, every time out it felt like.

[wolfboy]

What I started was correct. If you're using the WAR metric from Fangraphs, what starting staff had a higher number than the 1982 staff?

Why don't you tell me what the collective fWAR was for the 1973 staff? How about the 1962 staff? How about the 1922 staff?

[fearofpopvol1]

Why don't you tell me what the collective fWAR was for the 1973 staff? How about the 1962 staff? How about the 1922 staff?

Why don't you answer my original question? Further, where did I mention fWAR in my post(s)?

[wolfboy]

The best Reds starting rotation, according to Fangraphs WAR, was the 1982 staff. The 2012 staff is on pace to be just a little bit better than the 1992 staff, which is ranked 2nd all time currently.

You brought up fWAR in your first post.

I can't answer your question because the data isn't available to make that comparison. Fangraphs does not have WAR data for pitchers prior to 1974; therefore, when you say that the 1982 rotation was the best ever according to Fangraphs, it is an innacurate statement. The 1982 rotation had the highest cumulative fWAR since 1974, not ever. Again, I'm not picking on you when I point that out. I am just trying to show you that you're reaching a conclusion (best ever) based upon incomplete data (only available from 1974-present).

[VR]

fwar, fwar, what is it good for?

[fearofpopvol1]

You brought up fWAR in your first post.

I can't answer your question because the data isn't available to make that comparison. Fangraphs does not have WAR data for pitchers prior to 1974; therefore, when you say that the 1982 rotation was the best ever according to Fangraphs, it is an innacurate statement. The 1982 rotation had the highest cumulative fWAR since 1974, not ever. Again, I'm not picking on you when I point that out. I am just trying to show you that you're reaching a conclusion (best ever) based upon incomplete data (only available from 1974-present).

You know what...point taken. I didn't realize when I ran the WAR numbers that it didn't include numbers before 1974.

I'll revise what I said to say this could be the 2nd best rotation since 1974 then.

[wolfboy]

You know what...point taken. I didn't realize when I ran the WAR numbers that it didn't include numbers before 1974.

I'll revise what I said to say this could be the 2nd best rotation since 1974 then.

I believe baseball-reference assigns rWAR values for all players across all eras. I'm too lazy to do it, but if you want to look at the best all time, I think rWAR is the way to go. Here's an article you might be interested in that discusses how rWAR is calculated: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...to-explain-war Also a quick writeup on the differences between fWAR and rWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...ces-fwar-rwar/