For the statisticians out there:Combining Fielding Independent wOBA (FI wOBA for shortsies) and slash12′s xBABIP, we can get a specific wOBA calculation that strips away unusual luck, whether good or bad. It is important to remember these are both regression-based calculators, so they are backward-looking, not forward looking.
(The correlation is between FIO or FIwOBA vs wRC+)An R-squard of .97 — which makes sense, given the absence of park factors — makes FI wOBA a more than worthy substitute for FIO. I personally prefer the more intuitive plus scale of FIO, but for accuracy, FI wOBA is bar-none the better choice.
Anyway, back to the matter at hand.
The article produces a wOBA of .296 for Stubbs, against a FIwOBA of .354, for a difference of .058- good for second unluckiest (to Yunel Escobar) in baseball.
Votto is second in baseball among hitters (to Josh Hamilton) with at least 250 PAs in FIwOBA.
Cueto and Cairo are 450th and 451st among hitters with at least 45 PAs in FIwOBA (the second and third worst in baseball, to only Brett Hayes).
Anyway, back to Stubbs. Is his poor showing this season a result of luck, the league adjusting to him, poor utilization, or regression in skillset? Personally, I see Stubbs as a player who has a tool (hit) that lags far behind his other tools. This leads the fan to see a player who makes no contact or poor contact way too often for his own good. When combined with what appears to be an unclear plan or lack of control while at the plate, he can be very frustrating.
What do you think?
(I apologize for the strange writing style in the article that I linked to- it seems so casual for FanGraphs...)