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Thread: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

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    Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...sh-new-xbabip/

    Combining Fielding Independent wOBA (FI wOBA for shortsies) and slash12′s xBABIP, we can get a specific wOBA calculation that strips away unusual luck, whether good or bad. It is important to remember these are both regression-based calculators, so they are backward-looking, not forward looking.
    For the statisticians out there:

    An R-squard of .97 which makes sense, given the absence of park factors makes FI wOBA a more than worthy substitute for FIO. I personally prefer the more intuitive plus scale of FIO, but for accuracy, FI wOBA is bar-none the better choice.
    (The correlation is between FIO or FIwOBA vs wRC+)

    Anyway, back to the matter at hand.

    The article produces a wOBA of .296 for Stubbs, against a FIwOBA of .354, for a difference of .058- good for second unluckiest (to Yunel Escobar) in baseball.

    Votto is second in baseball among hitters (to Josh Hamilton) with at least 250 PAs in FIwOBA.

    Cueto and Cairo are 450th and 451st among hitters with at least 45 PAs in FIwOBA (the second and third worst in baseball, to only Brett Hayes).

    Anyway, back to Stubbs. Is his poor showing this season a result of luck, the league adjusting to him, poor utilization, or regression in skillset? Personally, I see Stubbs as a player who has a tool (hit) that lags far behind his other tools. This leads the fan to see a player who makes no contact or poor contact way too often for his own good. When combined with what appears to be an unclear plan or lack of control while at the plate, he can be very frustrating.

    What do you think?

    (I apologize for the strange writing style in the article that I linked to- it seems so casual for FanGraphs...)
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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    I don't think any stats correlate bad luck to no contact, so I'm going to assume that Stubbs is getting bad luck after he makes contact.

    Since he has blazing speed and decent power, I'm assuming he has been very unlucky this year. Becuase his W and K-rates are in line with past years.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    No question that he's not a great hitter.

    He has histroicalyl got by at the MLB level by posting high BAPIP's (around .330) which is not just luck. When he makes contact, he often has the ability to get on base when he hits the ball slowly to the left side because of his speed, plus he does hit the ball with authority a good amount of the time he does make contact. In total, it shows that an above average BAPIP around .330 should be mostly expected with Stubbs going forward until he loses a step. Watching him run this year leads me to suggest he's still running at the same speed as in ptior years, therefore, I would expect that the low BAPIP this year to be represented by a string of bad luck rather than a trend going forward, and he should be able to get back to where he was a few seasons ago, which would make him a palatable starter as his peripherals (ie. K and BB %) are all in line with previous seasons.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Poor hitter. Next case.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Drew had .243/.321/.364/.686 last season.

    Drew has .217/.288/.356/.644 this season.

    He probably has been unlucky this year, looking at all the peripherals including BABIP I'd agree with that.

    But if the realistic "upside" is around 2011 levels (BABIP was .343), or slightly higher, is that really acceptable? And what evidence is there that his upside is materially higher than 2011, a season in which he had 681 plate appearances.

    I know he had some better years earlier in his career, I tend to focus on recent history. He's had over 1,000 plate appearances in 2011-12, and the numbers are a few paragraphs up in this post.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-23-2012 at 11:02 AM.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    Poor hitter. Next case.
    Ditto.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    On a team with the luxury to only give Stubbs the best 400 matchups at the plate, I think he could produce more than he does in 700 ab's. Then, some years, he could also potentially hit that 25-30 HR pace. He's an interesting case, and certainly one who holds power/speed potential into his early/mid 30's. If the Reds could bring a LHB CF/LF on to platoon that would be the best case for everyone involved.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    I'm of the opinion that Stubbs has probably been a bit unlucky, but most of his poor offensive game is due to pitchers figuring out how to pitch him (and, more importantly how not to pitch him) and his failure to adjust accordingly. IF he gets a bit lucky, he may add ten points of BA to his overall numbers.

    That still makes him well below average as a starting major league CF.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    On a team with the luxury to only give Stubbs the best 400 matchups at the plate, I think he could produce more than he does in 700 ab's. Then, some years, he could also potentially hit that 25-30 HR pace. He's an interesting case, and certainly one who holds power/speed potential into his early/mid 30's. If the Reds could bring a LHB CF/LF on to platoon that would be the best case for everyone involved.
    I heard that Rick Ankiel is available.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    Poor hitter. Next case.
    OK, but why?

    In 2010, Stubbs had a line of .255/.329/.444 for a wRC+ of 110. In 2012, Stubbs has (so far) a line of .217/.288/.356 for a wRC+ of 79.

    His BB% is down slightly, at 9.4% to 8.6%. His K% is also down slightly, at 28.8% to 26.8%. His BB/K ratios are almost exactly the same, at 0.33 to 0.32. His HR/FB is down slightly, at 15.9% to 14.8%. LD% is up, at 15.5% to 16.0%. Really, the only big differences can be seen in his GB/FB ratio, his BABIP, and, oddly, his ISOp.

    GB/FB ratio went from 1.09 to 1.59. However, with Stubbs' speed, one might expect a higher number of base hits because of this (obviously, at the cost of home runs, but the drastic increase could maybe offset this?).

    BABIP went from .330 (and .343 in 2011) to .277. Clearly, this would have an effect upon his hitting stats.

    ISOp is the strangest one for me. In 2010, his ISO was at .189. Last season, it dropped to .121, and then this season it is at .139. Again, obviously part of the explanation lies in the change in batted ball type and therefore a decrease in home runs. But the question then becomes- why did Stubbs lose so much power?

    In 2010 Stubbs was the center fielder of the power. Since then, he has seen his ISO go down hugely and I can only see a part of the explanation in the stats that I see. Anyone else have an idea?
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Thus his team was punished

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    The base you want to acquire is home.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    I think his true talent is more than likely around a .710-.730 OPS (assuming he was perhaps a little lucky in his first few seasons) with about .320ish OBP. With average fielding in CF, that makes him a useable starter, mostly just against left handed pitchers. He has value, but I think only if used properly (its clear that he cant hit RH pitching at this point, and his fielding doesnt make up for that). There aren't that many better hitting CF's in baseball than can also field the position well.

    Stubbs is a nice guy to split with a left batter in CF, unfornautely the Reds haven't had a good option to pair with him, as Heisey seems to have similar flaws to Stubbs and cant be matched up well.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    OK, but why?

    In 2010, Stubbs had a line of .255/.329/.444 for a wRC+ of 110. In 2012, Stubbs has (so far) a line of .217/.288/.356 for a wRC+ of 79.

    His BB% is down slightly, at 9.4% to 8.6%. His K% is also down slightly, at 28.8% to 26.8%. His BB/K ratios are almost exactly the same, at 0.33 to 0.32. His HR/FB is down slightly, at 15.9% to 14.8%. LD% is up, at 15.5% to 16.0%. Really, the only big differences can be seen in his GB/FB ratio, his BABIP, and, oddly, his ISOp.

    GB/FB ratio went from 1.09 to 1.59. However, with Stubbs' speed, one might expect a higher number of base hits because of this (obviously, at the cost of home runs, but the drastic increase could maybe offset this?).

    BABIP went from .330 (and .343 in 2011) to .277. Clearly, this would have an effect upon his hitting stats.

    ISOp is the strangest one for me. In 2010, his ISO was at .189. Last season, it dropped to .121, and then this season it is at .139. Again, obviously part of the explanation lies in the change in batted ball type and therefore a decrease in home runs. But the question then becomes- why did Stubbs lose so much power?

    In 2010 Stubbs was the center fielder of the power. Since then, he has seen his ISO go down hugely and I can only see a part of the explanation in the stats that I see. Anyone else have an idea?
    I think it's merely the fact that pitchers adjusted to him and Stubbs can't adjust to the pitchers. His ISO and BABIP have dropped due to not hitting balls sharply, more often than not he's hitting weak grounders and popups that are easily fielded.
    "You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by brad1176 View Post
    I think it's merely the fact that pitchers adjusted to him and Stubbs can't adjust to the pitchers. His ISO and BABIP have dropped due to not hitting balls sharply, more often than not he's hitting weak grounders and popups that are easily fielded.
    Why aren't his strikeouts increasing then? (believe it or not they are right in line with normal).

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Why aren't his strikeouts increasing then? (believe it or not they are right in line with normal).
    It could be that he's trying to cut down on his swing, slap the ball just to make contact. What are your thoughts?
    "You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver

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    Re: Drew Stubbs- poor hitter or second unluckiest man in America?

    Quote Originally Posted by brad1176 View Post
    I think it's merely the fact that pitchers adjusted to him and Stubbs can't adjust to the pitchers. His ISO and BABIP have dropped due to not hitting balls sharply, more often than not he's hitting weak grounders and popups that are easily fielded.
    If pitchers have adjusted to him, then it isn't really showing up in pitch distribution. He's getting a little more "wiggle" stuff (curve, slider, two-seam fastball compared to four seam) and a little less "straight" stuff (four-seam fastball, changeup) but the difference is like 2% in each pitch.

    So it isn't like we have a Pedro Cerrano case here where the league figured out that Stubbs can't hit a curveball. The pitch distribution is close to the same as it has been.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Thus his team was punished

    Long live punishment
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    The base you want to acquire is home.


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