Also, gun readings are over-rated. Give me a guy who throws 88 MPH with wicked movement over a guy who throws straight-as-an-arrow 95 MPH heat. Movement and location count for a lot more than velocity. Of course, having all three is nice, but velocity without movement or location is pretty useless.
You can try to teach movement to a 95 MPH guy. Can't teach 95 MPH to an 88 MPH guy. But that is another topic all to itself.
You could trade him for a good player, or you can hope to get one of the most potent weapons in the league if he develops properly. With the way our team is structured right now we can afford to take that chance.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
But his progression through the minors this year has changed my mind, including articles I've read where his coaches applaud his tighter swing and line drive/ground ball hitting tendencies where he can take advantage of his speed.
They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.
I've come around on him and really hope he makes it to the Bigs and can be a Jose Reyes type player. No pressure intended.
Besides, the Reds have very few remaining parts they need, so trading isn't a pressing issue. And of the parts they do need, Hamilton's abilities fit the bill if he can translate them to the big league.
"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
Are the reds overflowing with guys with leadoff potential who may be a threat to obp at the .360 level and swipe 70+ bags?
This is what most scouts saw early on, and why I'm excited about Hamilton's future. I agree he needs to work on his left handed swing, but he has plenty of time to improve it, and he already has made leaps and bounds from where he was just last year from the left side. His work ethic and mentality is as strong as I have ever seen from a minor league prospect.They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.
"I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
By my comp Billy's walk rate is about 14-15% for the year. Does anyone think he can do that in the majors?
My opinion on Hamilton hasn't changed much. The kid was a major project. How many guys are drafted in the second round and then immediately start learning to switch-hit? It was an absurdly-high-upside project, with all the attendant risks of projects, and considering everything, there aren't a lot of truly meaningful comps out there to judge. "Renowned minor-league basestealers" or "typical guy at his age/level" doesn't quite paint the whole picture.
I also know that 3+ years after drafting, he's probably at or ahead of schedule and he still has the buzz of a potential difference-maker. Of course it's not a sure thing. Only the rarest of prospects are. But I also know that stars are harder to come by than a lot of people like to believe, they're really tough to trade for if they're not rentals or absurdly expensive, and the Reds aren't going to win many bidding wars for the veteran variety. So where are the Reds going to find stars if not from their farm system? How many guys really have the ability to be one? I want the Reds to keep those guys around, not trade them -- unless the trade brings back a guy just as good we can keep around for awhile. I don't like trading "A" talent at a discount just to mitigate the risk of the prospect not panning out. Same reasons I've never been for trading Chapman barring something ridiculously in the Reds' favor. Some guys just have something that can't quite be duplicated and I like to be patient with them.
Not all who wander are lost
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda