Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[scott91575]

Your original post says



The math based on the assumptions isn't where I'm having the issue. The IF itself to me is wildly optimistic. The 10 to 12% walk rate and 18% K Rate at the big league level are both still optimistic assumptions. We seem to forget that the two little letters "IF" in the front of the assumption carries the possibility that those things may not happen.

There are 38 qualifiers in the NL with an OPS of at least .750. To assume that a guy with a half a season in AA will be in that fairly select group seems wildly optimistic IMO. It's not impossible. It's worth giving a chance and finding out. But hitting in the big leagues and hitting in AA are not the same thing.

Trust me, I'm dreaming about it too. But I'm not assuming its automatic. I'd certainly give him a serious look at a spot where the Reds have a need (hint: its in the OF and not at SS), but I wouldn't deal a solid player to create a spot for him. I don't think it will take all that long to convert to CF. I'd begin that process no later than next spring with an eye on Hamilton getting the call by Memorial Day unless Stubbs takes a huge step forward. I'd probably start him out platooning with Stubbs. In AA, his OPS vs RHP is .893 vs only .727 vs. LHP. He seems a nice fit with Stubbs in a platoon until he can grab the job full time. That would be a low risk way to break him in. The Reds have gotten little from CF against RHP anyway. If he tanks, it doesn't make the team much worse off.

Just a note on platooning him. He didn't start switch hitting until after he was drafted. I would not want to stunt his growth hitting right handed by bringing him up and not allowing him to go against left handers. I know people are really excited about this kid, but he needs at least another year in the minors to hone his hitting and even more his defensive abilities. If he is to be called up early, I would in no way want him to platoon.

[Brutus]

Your original post says



The math based on the assumptions isn't where I'm having the issue. The IF itself to me is wildly optimistic. The 10 to 12% walk rate and 18% K Rate at the big league level are both still optimistic assumptions. We seem to forget that the two little letters "IF" in the front of the assumption carries the possibility that those things may not happen.

There are 38 qualifiers in the NL with an OPS of at least .750. To assume that a guy with a half a season in AA will be in that fairly select group seems wildly optimistic IMO. It's not impossible. It's worth giving a chance and finding out. But hitting in the big leagues and hitting in AA are not the same thing.

Trust me, I'm dreaming about it too. But I'm not assuming its automatic. I'd certainly give him a serious look at a spot where the Reds have a need (hint: its in the OF and not at SS), but I wouldn't deal a solid player to create a spot for him. I don't think it will take all that long to convert to CF. I'd begin that process no later than next spring with an eye on Hamilton getting the call by Memorial Day unless Stubbs takes a huge step forward. I'd probably start him out platooning with Stubbs. In AA, his OPS vs RHP is .893 vs only .727 vs. LHP. He seems a nice fit with Stubbs in a platoon until he can grab the job full time. That would be a low risk way to break him in. The Reds have gotten little from CF against RHP anyway. If he tanks, it doesn't make the team much worse off.

There are only about 12 guys in Double-A hitting at least .850, so why should I be pessimistic that a guy can be one of about 40 in the Majors hitting .750 at some point in his career? I think that sort of logic is showing that it's not I who's being ridiculous.

I didn't "forget" about the letters "if" being in front of the word. If means exactly what it means... if, hence the recognition that it's not automatic. Nonetheless, those aren't outrageous peripherals considering what he's doing now. Walk and strikeout rates do translate from minors to majors relatively well. Guys that take walks in the minors typically also draw them in the majors. So those peripherals aren't "ridiculous." Walks and strikeouts correlate to the majors better than anything.

But again, he doesn't even need to crack 10% walk rate to get to .750. A line of .290/.350/.400 can be achieved with roughly an 8-9% walk rate and .110 ISO. But I suppose you're going to say that's ridiculously optimistic too? It's not, but embellish if you must. On the contrary, it's actually extremely reasonable given his current line. Not a guarantee, no, but not wildly optimistic.

Frankly, I'm being extremely analytical about this. I have not even remotely been high on Hamilton until this year. And the only reason I'm high on him is not because of some perception that he'll be something he's not. It's because he's improved tremendously in areas that are usually very steady in translating to MLB success.

[Brutus]

By the way, while they're certainly not perfect, minor league equivalencies do a decent job of forecasting players to the next level. Hamilton's MLE's, based on Double-A, forecast a current MLB line of:

.270/.346/.358/.706 (9.4% walk rate)

That's to say that right now, as a rookie, Hamilton would project to have roughly a .706 OPS based on his current production in AA.

So my .750 threshold for 3-4 years down the road should not at all be too unrealistic.

[mdccclxix]

I don't expect AAA to hurt Billy's numbers unless pitching gets the better of him. The park effect in LOU should have nothing to say about Billy's game, which isn't over the fence.

[OGB]

I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of. If Hamilton only projects as a .750 OPS bat with 80 steals, he would be of enormous value. One doesn't even have to expect power to ever develop to hope for a .350/.400/.750 situation.

If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.

I don't mean just about Hamilton, I mean in general. Check out some of the threads where people project the Reds lineup for 2014 or 2015. You'll see plenty of people putting players likw Robert Stephenson and Yorman Rodriguez as starters in Cincy by then.

Hell, I've always been a fan of Yorman, but as a betting man, if you asked me to put money on his future prospects at this point, I'd wager on him never becoming a full time starter at the big league level. I only hope I'm way off base.

Back to the ridiculous optimism, there was a Sun Deck thread earlier this season where someone insisted it would be a borderline disappointment if this team didn't win over 100 games because "they had that much talent." It was then pointed out to the OP how few teams have won 100 games in baseball history.

[bellhead]

In John Fay's blog today someone said Billy may have a Brett Butler type of career.

[dougdirt]

Brett Butler's K rate in the Majors was 9.5%. Billy Hamilton is striking out roughly twice as often as that.

[Rojo]

Brett Butler's K rate in the Majors was 9.5%. Billy Hamilton is striking out roughly twice as often as that.

Butler didn't play pro ball until he was 22.

[Rojo]

The odds are always stacked against a minor leaguer. They're especially stacked against a player with some questionable tools -- and Hamilton has those. His arm looks "short" to me and he doesn't have any power and I don't know if he'll grow into any.

However, he's done just about everything you want a player like Billy Hamilton to do. How many burners (frustratingly) never learn to walk? How many never learn to bunt, slap, chop their way on base? Billy does those things and turned them into very good numbers. And, despite my reservations, he hasn't played himself off of SS yet.

[Brutus]

I don't mean just about Hamilton, I mean in general. Check out some of the threads where people project the Reds lineup for 2014 or 2015. You'll see plenty of people putting players likw Robert Stephenson and Yorman Rodriguez as starters in Cincy by then.

Hell, I've always been a fan of Yorman, but as a betting man, if you asked me to put money on his future prospects at this point, I'd wager on him never becoming a full time starter at the big league level. I only hope I'm way off base.

Back to the ridiculous optimism, there was a Sun Deck thread earlier this season where someone insisted it would be a borderline disappointment if this team didn't win over 100 games because "they had that much talent." It was then pointed out to the OP how few teams have won 100 games in baseball history.

Do I think that fans tend to, as a generalization, overvalue their prospects? Yes. I do think that's true and it's true here.

I just haven't seen any unrealistic expectations for Hamilton specifically. Maybe there have been and I missed them, but I don't think .750 is unrealistic in terms of my own expectations.

[bellhead]

Brett Butler's K rate in the Majors was 9.5%. Billy Hamilton is striking out roughly twice as often as that.

He's lowered his strikeout rate every year and increased his walk rate, maybe he'll hit that mark by his 3rd or 4th year in the majors.

[Scrap Irony]

Brett Butler's K rate in the Majors was 9.5%. Billy Hamilton is striking out roughly twice as often as that.

Hamilton's 2012 K rate is 18.4%. His career K rate is just over 20%.

Willie Wilson struck out around 20% of the time in his minor league career.
Mookie Wilson struck out around 15% of the time.
Ron LeFlore struck out around 20% of his ABs over the course of his career.
Devon White struck out 21.2% of his minor league ABs.
Marquis Grissom struck out only 12% of his minor league ABs.
Lou Brock struck out 15.4% of his major league ABs. (His minor league K numbers have been lost in the ether of baseball statistics.)
Roberto Kelly struck out around 16% of his minor league ABs.
Vince Coleman struck out around 17% of the time he stepped to the minor league plate.
Omar Moreno topped the 20% mark in minor league K rate as well.
Al Bumbry topped 18% in his minor league numbers.

Everyone's different. Hamilton's learned how to switch hit, he started at a much younger age, and he's had a long, long way to go. The progress he's made has been substantial. None of that seems to gain much weight, though, in favor of an assumption (pitchers will suddently throw him strikes at higher levels) that's both impossible to prove and has proven largely wrong over the history of the game.

For the most part, the BB rate a minor league guy has will be close to his major league BB rate.

For the most part, the K rate a minor league guy has will be close to his major league K rate.

More credence and emphasis should be given to higher level numbers.

All of these trend positively for Hamilton.

Whether that's blind-eyed optimism or not, I suppose I'll let the others decide. I don't particularly care what they think of my opinion anyway. Ultimately, someone will be proven right and someone else wrong.

FTR, I may be full of hot air in thinking Hamilton is indeed a legitimate upper level prospect. That, at his ceiling, he's a game-changer. That, in his most likely iteration, he's a leadoff hitter that will provide above average obp and speed-adjusted wRC+.

Ultimately, we'll all see one way or another.

[fearofpopvol1]

The thing to remember is that everyone here wants and hopes Hamilton turns out to be a stud. No one is rooting against him and those that are skeptical want to be wrong!

[camisadelgolf]

The thing to remember is that everyone here wants and hopes Hamilton turns out to be a stud. No one is rooting against him and those that are skeptical want to be wrong!

Exactly. I think I can safely speak for Doug when I say that he would rather eat crow than watch Hamilton turn into less than what the optimists expect him to be.

[texasdave]

There are enough Billy Hamilton threads floating around so I will just post this here.

Slidin' Billy was named California League MVP. He was the only Blaze player to make the postseason All-Star squad.

Reds shortstop Billy Hamilton earned Most Valuable Player honors for his huge season with Class A Advanced Bakersfield.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp...vkey=news_milb