Turn Off Ads?
Page 9 of 15 FirstFirst ... 5678910111213 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 135 of 221

Thread: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

  1. #121
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,225

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Brutus, Rickey Henderson hit more home runs in a season (8) than Hamilton has in his career (7) 16 times.
    To be fair, Rickey didn't develop that power until he had been in the majors a few years. His last two years in the minors he hit 3 HR in 889 PA's between AA and AAA, plus another 1 in 398 MLB PAs. His best power year in the minors he only had 33 XBH (a total that Hamilton has eclipsed this year). He failed to crack double digits in HR in four of his first five years in the majors, and didn't break the 450 SLG barrier until his sixth year in the bigs.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 08-17-2012 at 02:33 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #122
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,475

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    To be fair, Rickey didn't develop that power until he had been in the majors a few years. His last two years in the minors he hit 3 HR in 889 PA's between AA and AAA, plus another 1 in 398 MLB PAs. His best power year in the minors he only had 33 XBH (a total that Hamilton has eclipsed this year). He failed to crack double digits in HR in four of his first five years in the majors, and didn't break the 450 SLG barrier until his sixth year in the bigs.
    Good point, and that is why I've been harping on the "don't compare other players' major league stats to Hamilton's minor league stats" argument. The power numbers especially don't always show themselves for several years.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #123
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,857

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    I will disagree that Hamilton has tremendous plate discipline and a good eye. I have seen him this season, far too many times flailing out on his front foot at pitches to go that far. Solid plate discipline, I can go with that.

    Yes, the conversation changed some from point A to point B, but that is what conversations do. They adapt.

    At the end of the day I am just going to say that Hamilton has an incredibly unique skillset and if he winds up as an every day player in the Majors, there won't be many comps for his skillset over the last 25 years because of his complete lack of power and still higher end strikeout rates.

    Can he walk 8-10% of the time? Sure, I think so. Can he walk 12-15% of the time? I highly doubt it because I don't see any reason pitchers would fear throwing him strikes and even with excellent plate discipline, you aren't going to walk that much when pitchers have no fear of you hitting the ball over the fence.

  5. #124
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,857

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    To be fair, Rickey didn't develop that power until he had been in the majors a few years. His last two years in the minors he hit 3 HR in 889 PA's between AA and AAA, plus another 1 in 398 MLB PAs. His best power year in the minors he only had 33 XBH (a total that Hamilton has eclipsed this year). He failed to crack double digits in HR in four of his first five years in the majors, and didn't break the 450 SLG barrier until his sixth year in the bigs.
    I don't have scouting reports on Rickey Henderson from his minor league time, nor does anyone around here I would imagine. But we do have them on Hamilton. No one thinks he is going to hit 10 home runs in a season, ever. Maybe they didn't think that about Henderson too, I don't really know. But counting on the unexpected to happen isn't a good idea. Hamilton is expected to hit for zero home run power.

  6. #125
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,225

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't have scouting reports on Rickey Henderson from his minor league time, nor does anyone around here I would imagine. But we do have them on Hamilton. No one thinks he is going to hit 10 home runs in a season, ever. Maybe they didn't think that about Henderson too, I don't really know. But counting on the unexpected to happen isn't a good idea. Hamilton is expected to hit for zero home run power.
    Since when are home runs all that matters?

    Billy cranks out plenty of extra base pop (36 XBH and counting in 2012), he just doesn't put balls over the fence. Billy might not project as a 10 HR guy, be he sure looks like a 10 triple guy. If he can do that and mix in 20-25 doubles and the occasional fluke HR, that should be enough to keep pitchers honest.

    Also, who said anything about Hamilton developing 10 HR power anyway? I was pointing out that Henderson was a guy with minimal power early in his career and was still able to draw a prodigious amount of walks. Ricky was a walking fool with or without power.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 08-17-2012 at 03:14 PM.

  7. #126
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,898

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Brutus, Rickey Henderson hit more home runs in a season (8) than Hamilton has in his career (7) 16 times. Randy Milligan hit 20 home runs in 1990. Warren Newson never topped 300 PA's in a single season yet still had multiple double digit home run seasons. Tony Phillips had 7 double digit home run seasons in his career and hit 27 at one point. Jeremy Giambi played 6 season and hit double digit home runs in half of them, including a 20 home run campaign. John Kruk hit 20 home runs in his second season in the Majors.

    Lance Blankenship works, kind of. Of course he never played a full season in his life either. Dave Magadan works. Little home run power, lots of walks. Struck out significantly less than Hamilton does though. Still time for Hamilton to fix that some. John Canglosi is much like Blankenship, never really played a full season except for one year. Lenny Dykstra kind of works too, but he struck out at half the rate of what Hamilton is currently striking out at.

    I didn't expand beyond the initial list, but the point is that Hamilton has such a unique skillset when it comes to Major Leaguers (every day players who probably aren't going to hit you 5 home runs in a season) that it is tough to find actual comparisons.
    Since the beginning of 2010, minimum 1000 PA: BB%>10%, ISO<.150.
    Code:
    Name		SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
    Jamey Carroll	28	10.7%	13.1%	.051	.323	.276	.356	.327	.312
    Brett Gardner	98	12.1%	16.9%	.105	.323	.269	.365	.374	.345
    Daric Barton	10	15.4%	16.4%	.106	.296	.248	.368	.354	.328
    Joe Mauer	 8	11.8%	11.1%	.119	.346	.315	.397	.434	.360
    Kosuke Fukudome	11	12.3%	17.2%	.130	.300	.258	.351	.389	.325
    Chase Headley	42	10.6%	21.7%	.133	.339	.274	.352	.407	.337
    Jason Bay	25	10.9%	22.7%	.136	.291	.237	.322	.372	.312
    Bobby Abreu	50	13.2%	19.9%	.139	.305	.253	.352	.392	.333
    Russell Martin	18	11.6%	17.2%	.142	.253	.229	.328	.371	.314
    Todd Helton	 1	13.2%	16.4%	.144	.305	.270	.366	.414	.343
    Hideki Matsui	 1	10.5%	16.4%	.146	.278	.252	.330	.399	.319
    Justin Smoak	 2	10.3%	22.2%	.149	.248	.215	.297	.365	.292
    In terms of raw power, I think you'd probably put everybody but Carroll and Gardner above him. Brett Gardner is easily the best comp there, right? The other guy who comes to mind from the recent past who would fit the same criteria is Luis Castillo.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #127
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    I remember an argument on this board about Latos not being a finished project. Yet, it sure seems like some people pigeonhole minor league players, with no allowance that they can continue to progress and get better.

    Hamilton has gotten better all through the minors. No reason to think he won't still keep progressing positively.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  9. #128
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I remember an argument on this board about Latos not being a finished project. Yet, it sure seems like some people pigeonhole minor league players, with no allowance that they can continue to progress and get better.

    Hamilton has gotten better all through the minors. No reason to think he won't still keep progressing positively.
    No one ever, ever, ever said Hamilton couldn't get better. The specific discussion at hand here is whether Hamilton can maintain his current walk rate in the major leagues, with many people providing insightful opinions both supporting why they think he can, and those providing support for why they believe he won't be able to. If you would like to contribute to this, please feel free. But don't put words in people's mouths.

  10. #129
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,615

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    More exuberance: if Billy is a 3 win offensive player, it's going to be an awesome ride this decade. His OBP and SB's are perhaps the perfect compliment to Votto's game.

  11. #130
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    More exuberance: if Billy is a 3 win offensive player, it's going to be an awesome ride this decade. His OBP and SB's are perhaps the perfect compliment to Votto's game.
    Most definitely.

    Based on his track record already, I see him continuing to get better. He is exactly what the Reds are missing in front of Votto.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  12. #131
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,857

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post

    Hamilton has gotten better all through the minors. No reason to think he won't still keep progressing positively.
    Yes, he has gotten somewhat better. But that isn't the issue at hand. The issue at hand is whether or not his skillset is going to allow him to do something that 95% of people without power have been unable to do since the 1990's, and that is walk at a high rate.

    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at hitting? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at stealing? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at throwing accuracy? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to gain more home run power? No, probably not.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to carry forward a high walk rate? That is a much tougher question than the other ones and the real debate going on here and there are two sides to it.

  13. #132
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Cincinnati/Athens
    Posts
    648

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    I'll add one Doug

    Is Billy Hamilton likely to keep being a very exciting player to watch and follow? Yep!
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  14. #133
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Savannah, TN
    Posts
    2,875

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes, he has gotten somewhat better. But that isn't the issue at hand. The issue at hand is whether or not his skillset is going to allow him to do something that 95% of people without power have been unable to do since the 1990's, and that is walk at a high rate.

    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at hitting? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at stealing? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to get better at throwing accuracy? Yes.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to gain more home run power? No, probably not.
    Is Billy Hamilton likely to carry forward a high walk rate? That is a much tougher question than the other ones and the real debate going on here and there are two sides to it.
    I know you say that the fear of power leads to walks but is it possible that the fear of a walk that turns into a double or triple will result in a walk?
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  15. #134
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,857

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbachunk View Post
    I'll add one Doug

    Is Billy Hamilton likely to keep being a very exciting player to watch and follow? Yep!
    Depends on who you are asking. I find home runs or strikeout pitchers more exciting than fast guys.

  16. #135
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,857

    Re: Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    I know you say that the fear of power leads to walks but is it possible that the fear of a walk that turns into a double or triple will result in a walk?
    Possible, sure. But Deion Sanders wasn't exactly out there drawing a bunch of walks either and he was at least as fast as Hamilton.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25