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Thread: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

  1. #556
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The Phillies just won a World Series, what, three years ago? Two years ago they swept the Reds in a 3-game series. Teams that are successful like that typically aren't in the business of trading for the worst relievers in baseball.

    The Phillies obviously don't think he's one of the worst relievers, right? If they did, they wouldn't be trying to acquire him.

    I truly would like for you to explain how "logical" it is to suggest major league teams are in the habit of trading for the worst players in baseball at their position. How logical is that, really?
    Ryan Howard's contract is often cited as the worst in the league.

    It doesn't matter though. The Phillies pursuing Logan has nothing to do with whether or not he is any good.

    I would agree that the Phils probably don't view him has one of the worst in the game. But that doesn't make it so.

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  3. #557
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    [QUOTE=BuckeyeRedleg;2677994]
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post

    Fine, but he's not average. Anyone saying so is wrong. Good night.
    You must have really exercised a lot of restraint to get that extra remark in yes? So much for the high road and agreeing to disagree. Classy.

    There really isn't a right or wrong. It's a matter of opinion. Someone trying to make this a black/white issue is really missing the big picture. But if you don't want to rise above the fray, feel free to tell me how wrong I am again.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #558
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Ryan Howard's contract is often cited as the worst in the league.

    It doesn't matter though. The Phillies pursuing Logan has nothing to do with whether or not he is any good.

    I would agree that the Phils probably don't view him has one of the worst in the game. But that doesn't make it so.
    Ryan Howard is also one of the best hitters in the league, and they were able to afford him and won a World Series by keeping him around. So I'm not sure how that matters.

    The point is, the Phillies clearly were able to identify talent rather well or they'd never have gotten where they did.

    The Phillies wanting him doesn't make it so, but give me a choice between the opinions of fans and the opinions of the Phillies, and I know who I'd rather have making choices on personnel.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #559
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    You must have really exercised a lot of restraint to get that extra remark in yes? So much for the high road and agreeing to disagree. Classy.

    There really isn't a right or wrong. It's a matter of opinion. Someone trying to make this a black/white issue is really missing the big picture. But if you don't want to rise above the fray, feel free to tell me how wrong I am again.
    C'mon. Quit getting personal. You are the one that jumped into this debate and haven't really provided anything objective to make me think you're not just arguing for the sake of arguing. In fact, I think you are missing the big picture to even argue the point I initially made. I guess we can agree to disagree, but again, no need to take a cheap shot.

  6. #560
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Ryan Howard is also one of the best hitters in the league, and they were able to afford him and won a World Series by keeping him around. So I'm not sure how that matters.

    The point is, the Phillies clearly were able to identify talent rather well or they'd never have gotten where they did.

    The Phillies wanting him doesn't make it so, but give me a choice between the opinions of fans and the opinions of the Phillies, and I know who I'd rather have making choices on personnel.
    There was a rumor last season or so that the Phillies wanted to trade for Paul Janish, he of the sub .600 OPS last season.

  7. #561
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    1. Ryan Howard has not been "one of the best hitters in baseball" for a few years now. That gap has closed. As a poor fielding 1st sacker with no baserunning skills, his contract is not a good one. The Phils got that very wrong.

    2. Besides ERA, which we all know doesnt work well in predicting the future, in what way is O even average?

  8. #562
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    C'mon. Quit getting personal. You are the one that jumped into this debate and haven't really provided anything objective to make me think you're not just arguing for the sake of arguing. In fact, I think you are missing the big picture to even argue the point I initially made. I guess we can agree to disagree, but again, no need to take a cheap shot.
    OK want something objective?

    OPS against Logan Ondrusek this year: .633

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...01-pitch.shtml

    NL average OPS against by all relievers: .719

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...g=NL&year=2012

    There's your objectivity. And for the record, his career OPS against is .664, so he'd be an above-average reliever in any year he's pitched thus far. And all I'm arguing is that he's an average reliever. But his OPS against has actually been consistently above-average for relief pitchers.
    Last edited by Brutus; 07-26-2012 at 01:02 AM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #563
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    OK want something objective?

    OPS against Logan Ondrusek this year: .633

    NL average OPS against by all relievers: .719

    There's your objectivity. And for the record, his career OPS against is .664, so he'd be an above-average reliever in any year he's pitched thus far.
    What did you say about selection bias again?

    K/9, BB/9, FIP, WAR. How does he do there? So his BABIP is great. Super.

  10. #564
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    OK want something objective?

    OPS against Logan Ondrusek this year: .633

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...01-pitch.shtml

    NL average OPS against by all relievers: .719

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...g=NL&year=2012

    There's your objectivity. And for the record, his career OPS against is .664, so he'd be an above-average reliever in any year he's pitched thus far. And all I'm arguing is that he's an average reliever. But his OPS against has actually been consistently above-average for relief pitchers.
    I'm bowing out, but this is much better than "he's ok cause the Phillies like him"

  11. #565
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    What did you say about selection bias again?

    K/9, BB/9, FIP, WAR. How does he do there? So his BABIP is great. Super.
    OPS takes into account strikeouts, walks, homers, etc. So how is it a selection bias to use a number that takes into account almost everything? It's good enough for hitters yet it's biased to use for a pitcher?

    His career OPS against is 60 points below the current national league average for relievers. Even if you regress his BABIP, he's still at the average (which is what I've been arguing all along!!!)

    OPS against doesn't tell the whole story, obviously, but neither does FIP (which doesn't take into account anything about what happens in the field of play which analysts are now of the belief isn't prudent).

    All of this gets us back to where we started... something that cannot be proven or disproven. It's a matter of opinion. As I said, I think he's average, you don't agree.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #566
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Wow, what an incredible win. Not gonna lie, I turned the game off and walked outside and followed along on my phone after that eighth inning. Dusty had me fuming after using Ondrusek in that situation, and then leaving him in way too long. Glad to see Stubbs come through again!
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #567
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Ondrusek has pitched over 150 innings in the majors and has a .246 BABIP. It never has been higher than .257 in his career.

    Considering ths reserch has shown that releivers have been to maintain low BABIP over their careers, it is not illogical to assume that Ondrusek's low BABIP is a reflection of his true skill level.

    Besically, using FIP and other DIPS stats to evaluate relievers like Ondusek is not very accurate, nor effective at predicting future ERA. Or more simply, Ondusek isn't as bad as his FIP or xFIP says he is.

    That said, I still would have brought in Marshall to face the lefty.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #568
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    SOOOOOOOOO mad. My internet feed died, right at the end of the astros 8th inning. I completely missed the 9th. Aaaarrrrrgh!

    Well done boys! Bust out the brooms yet again! 7 in a row baby! :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  15. #569
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    LOL at you guys. Arguing and debating and getting ticked off about Logan....I wonder if any of you noticed that we won, we continue to win and are leading the division...still. Logan can be good, Logan can be bad. Same can be said for EVERY reliever. Tonight, he was bad. But he's only 1 man on a 25 man roster. The other 24 picked him up. Look on the bright side every once in a while guys.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  16. #570
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: 7/25/12 Reds @ Astros

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    LOL at you guys. Arguing and debating and getting ticked off about Logan....I wonder if any of you noticed that we won, we continue to win and are leading the division...still. Logan can be good, Logan can be bad. Same can be said for EVERY reliever. Tonight, he was bad. But he's only 1 man on a 25 man roster. The other 24 picked him up. Look on the bright side every once in a while guys.
    Well said Charles. Enjoy the win. This team is incredible right now. They are showing heart and as much grit as any Reds team in recent memory. Ondrusek probably should be dropped back in the bullpen rotation. Move LeCure and Simon up and make LO the long man. I think the heavy workload over the couple of years has taken its toll on him and he needs the rest of season off or very limited innings.
    But basically, enjoy this. This is great after having to go through most of the 2000's with just awful teams to root for.
    Reds Fan Since 1971


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