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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #241
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Gallen5862 View Post
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton
    By Tim Dierkes [July 31 at 2:28pm CST]

    Broxton, 28, has bounced back this year to post a 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 innings, although his peripheral stats aren't great with a 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He has posted a career-best 56.6% groundball rate, a large part in why he's allowed just one home run. Broxton is throwing 95 miles per hour again and has racked up 23 saves, though I'm guessing he'll join Sean Marshall in setting up Aroldis Chapman. Broxton is on a one-year deal and has $1.4MM remaining in base salary.

    Joseph, 24, has a 1.72 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and one home run allowed in 52 1/3 relief innings across Double and Triple-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 27th among Reds prospects prior to the season, suggesting at the time he could become a power reliever in the bigs if able to improve his mechanics.

    Sulbaran, 22, has a 4.04 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 1.46 HR/9 in 104 2/3 innings as a starter at Double-A this year. Baseball America ranked him 12th among Reds prospects prior to the season, praising his stuff but expressing concern with his maturity and secondarypitches. They saw his future as a potential No. 3 starter at that time.
    Tim posted this before BA released updated scouting reports on the two guys:

    Sulbaran isn't a typical 30th-round pick, as he signed for $500,000 out of high school in 2008 and pitched for the Dutch national team at the World Baseball Classic before making his pro debut in 2009. He had some of the best pure stuff in the Reds system, showing a fastball that features good sink at times and runs up to 95 mph at others and flashing a plus curveball and changeup. Sulbaran has some crossfire in his delivery and struggles to maintain the consistency of his pitches and his command. But he's still just 22, and if he figures it all out, he could be a No. 3 starter down the road.

    Like the girl with the curl, when Joseph is good, he's been very good. But when he's been bad, he's been very bad. This has been a good year for Joseph, as he rediscovered the feel for his slider by stopping a tendency to fly open too soon in his delivery. He has two plus pitches: a 92-95 mph fastball and a slider. He will likely never have plus command because his delivery features significant effort including a head-whip, but his stuff is good enough that if he has even average control, he should be able to get big league hitters out. At worst Joseph should be a useful lefty reliever, but his stuff is good enough to get righthanders out as well. He profiles as a solid set-up man.

    The current reports paint a little different picture than the outdated info Tim posted.

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  3. #242
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Brutus, I will take Addedondo and Simon over Broxton. Counting on him to "keep" gaining velocity isn't something I am paying for. Maybe Walt was.
    Simon might be as good (or better) than Broxton for the rest of the seasion.
    That's a solid point.

    Arendondo.. I really have no confidence in him. He has the tools and is dominating at time, but not consistent enough to be a reliable set up man.

    I guess I feel that even if Simon is slightly better than Broxton, it's always good to add more pitching depth. Bray was headed to the DL. So the question is: Are we better off now with Broxton or Redmond? I think most will agree that Broxton is better.

    Sulbran or Joseph might turn out to be quality ML pitchers. However, they aren't ready now. Even if they eventually reach their ceilings (#3 starter and setup man), I guess I really won't be upset.

    I see this move as part of the domino effect from losing Masset, Madson, and Bray.. Logan has been scary this year as well.. I'm glad Walt shored up the pen.. Could Broxton end up stinking up the place? Possible, but I think he will contribute.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. #243
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So why trade two guys who fit that profile - Sulbaran (95 MPH FB and a plus curve) and Joseph (93 MPH FB and a plus slider) - for one of those guys? Because he used to be really good? Because he has MLB experience?
    Actually, those are exactly the reasons why the Reds traded for him. They wanted a veteran with experience closing. They have plenty of young, inexperienced pitchers who might be as good as Broxton, but they wanted a someone whose been there before. When trying to win a division and go deep into the playoffs, that's a smart move, IMO.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

  5. #244
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    I will say this.... Bryan Price has sure earned his paycheck this year. Hopefully he keeps that going with Broxton. I just wish that I didn't have to have that thought when acquiring a guy who is supposed to improve our bullpen.

  6. #245
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I'm hoping Broxton slides in as the RH 8th inning guy alongside Marshall from the left side and all the remaining relievers move down a notch. I think that can improve the pen in itself. I think that it also gives Dusty another option when Aroldis has had to go two or three days in a row and there's a save opportunity.
    Yup. Don't mind it. Also happen to think that Broxton may be a little more, um, focused, coming from a KC team in its usual state of disrepair, to a team in a pennant chase. And with that alone, I suspect his numbers will tick up. I also think fitting into a pen with Chapman at the back, will also help to reinvigorate him.

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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    He's better than Bray, the guy he replaces.

    He's better than Ondrusek, the man whose role he takes over.

    He's an upgrade.

    I wanted more, but Jocketty at least improved the team.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  8. #247
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    He's better than Bray, the guy he replaces.

    He's better than Ondrusek, the man whose role he takes over.

    He's an upgrade.
    All this.

  9. #248
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    Oh really? Thanks, I hadn't realized that.

    My point was that it seems hitters 1-8 are generally better in an AL lineup than its NL counterpart. Maybe that's true, maybe it isn't. I was wondering if anybody had the answer to that, not whether Broxton would be facing pitchers or not.
    Again, the difference won't be as great as for a starting pitcher because Broxton won't likely get to face pitchers.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #249
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Somehow, without even throwing a pitch or putting on a Reds jersey yet, I'm starting to come around on Broxton.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  11. #250
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    Ten BJ Ryans wouldn't have cured the Reds' futility during the 2000s, but one Juan Guzman almost got them to the playoffs.
    If only Broxton were a very good starter instead of a mediocre reliever.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #251
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    Just a guess... wondering if Masset isn't going to be ready sooner than later. I heard he was progressing but they always say that. Can't risk losing these tight games.

    If there's a brawl, Broxton has to be first out of the dugout. LOL
    Good observation...Looks lie Broxton is a NEEDED addition to the team since Masset is still not up to speed.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

  13. #252
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If only Broxton were a very good starter instead of a mediocre reliever.
    Even if you ignore that he's still only 9 months removed from elbow surgery and that he could conceivably regress back a little closer to what he once was, let's just focus on what he is doing at the moment. And if we only look at that, your description of mediocre, as I understand the meaning of the term, doesn't seem to fit.

    The average of all NL relievers this year is roughly a 3.90 FIP. Broxton, meanwhile, is carrying a 3.38 FIP this year with strong groundball tendencies.

    Again, ignoring the possibility of him getting back closer to Broxton circa-mid 2010, being a half run lower than the average production of a reliever in this league, I have a hard time agreeing that's mediocre. And that's assuming he won't continue to improve as he gets further from his surgery.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. #253
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Here's a comparison of Broxton versus the average major league relief pitcher this season:

    Code:
    	k/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	LOB%	HR%	GB%
    MLave	8.3	3.53	3.68	3.85	73%	9.0%	45%
    Broxton	6.3	3.53	2.27	3.38	81%	4.3%	57%
    He's got a significantly below average Krate and a walk rate that is basically average. That's not an inspiring combination. When looking at plate discipline metrics (ala fangraphs), its clear that he has a below average contact rate relative to league pitching (i.e. hitters make more contact against him than against an average pitcher) and is below average concerning missing bats (fewer whiffs when batter swing). Since this is relative to an average pitcher (i.e. it includes starters), he's he's actually more below average relative to his peers (i.e. only relief pitchers who generally have lower contact rates than starters).

    In any event, i'm skeptical that the Reds just traded for a high leverage arm.

    He does have a better ERA and FIP than an average relief pitcher but he also has HR/FB% and LOB% that are significantly better than both the average reliever and his career norms. Since these are luck metrics, one would expect them to regress which would be expected to elevate his ERA/FIP. Also, his GB% is significantly higher than his career norms.

    When looking at his monthly splits, his K rates have been all over the place and do not display a pattern that suggests he's gotten more effective as the season has progressed.

    If I have to make a bet, i'd put the chips on his ERA/FIP being significantly higher going forward this season than they've been up to this point.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #254
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Relievers are highly volatile. Predicting their future production is a fools errand, no matter what stats you use. That's why they are always risky trade objects. I wouldn't make any bets on how any reliever will do in short window of time.

    The Reds acquired Broxton because they wanted a veteran arm for the pen who has closing experience. No matter who they got, it's a crap shoot.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

  16. #255
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    If the Reds had traded two decent prospcets for a better rental (say Betancourt) then I'd be happy with the trade.

    If they couldn't do that & traded a couple of A ball nobodies for Broxton then I'd be disappointed we couldn't do better but hope for good results from Broxton.

    IMO the trade the Reds made is a poor one. I don't think they got a light out reliever. I think his ERA is due to luck. Broxton 2012 = Coco 2011.
    I hope I am wrong.
    .


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