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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #256
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Relievers are highly volatile. Predicting their future production is a fools errand, no matter what stats you use. That's why they are always risky trade objects. I wouldn't make any bets on how any reliever will do in short window of time.

    The Reds acquired Broxton because they wanted a veteran arm for the pen who has closing experience. No matter who they got, it's a crap shoot.
    That's precisely the reason why a true high leverage arm is more valuable. Miss bats and don't walk people...it's the reliever's safety net...a buffer if you will against randomness.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #257
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That's precisely the reason why a true high leverage arm is more valuable. Miss bats and don't walk people...it's the reliever's safety net...a buffer if you will against randomness.
    Even guys who miss bats are volatile. You can usually count on one hand the number of relievers who are truely dependable, and worth trading for.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #258
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Oh, so this is the type of "quality discussion" we'd be losing if we merged with the Sun Deck.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  5. #259
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a comparison of Broxton versus the average major league relief pitcher this season:

    Code:
    	k/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	LOB%	HR%	GB%
    MLave	8.3	3.53	3.68	3.85	73%	9.0%	45%
    Broxton	6.3	3.53	2.27	3.38	81%	4.3%	57%
    He's got a significantly below average Krate and a walk rate that is basically average. That's not an inspiring combination. When looking at plate discipline metrics (ala fangraphs), its clear that he has a below average contact rate relative to league pitching (i.e. hitters make more contact against him than against an average pitcher) and is below average concerning missing bats (fewer whiffs when batter swing). Since this is relative to an average pitcher (i.e. it includes starters), he's he's actually more below average relative to his peers (i.e. only relief pitchers who generally have lower contact rates than starters).

    In any event, i'm skeptical that the Reds just traded for a high leverage arm.

    He does have a better ERA and FIP than an average relief pitcher but he also has HR/FB% and LOB% that are significantly better than both the average reliever and his career norms. Since these are luck metrics, one would expect them to regress which would be expected to elevate his ERA/FIP. Also, his GB% is significantly higher than his career norms.

    When looking at his monthly splits, his K rates have been all over the place and do not display a pattern that suggests he's gotten more effective as the season has progressed.

    If I have to make a bet, i'd put the chips on his ERA/FIP being significantly higher going forward this season than they've been up to this point.
    Great post. Thank you.

  6. #260
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    If the Reds had traded two decent prospcets for a better rental (say Betancourt) then I'd be happy with the trade.

    If they couldn't do that & traded a couple of A ball nobodies for Broxton then I'd be disappointed we couldn't do better but hope for good results from Broxton.

    IMO the trade the Reds made is a poor one. I don't think they got a light out reliever. I think his ERA is due to luck. Broxton 2012 = Coco 2011.
    I hope I am wrong.
    Agreed.

  7. #261
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Broxton's success this year has been modest but he seems to have caused a lot of playable ground balls.

    If he continues to do that he should be successful.

    If not, he's got a problem because he's not a bat misser.

    Hopefully, Broxton will continue to cause a high percentage of ground balls.

  8. #262
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Broxton's success this year has been modest but he seems to have caused a lot of playable ground balls.

    If he continues to do that he should be successful.

    If not, he's got a problem because he's not a bat misser.

    Hopefully, Broxton will continue to cause a high percentage of ground balls.
    His agent said after the surgery back in September that he was going to work on throwing a heavy fastball to induce grounders and rely less on his fastball to blow by people. So yeah, as you say, one hopes it will continue as it seems it's working.

    In the meantime, his velocity has been increasing as the year goes on. He was throwing 92-93 in spring training. For the first two months, he was sitting around 94-95. Now the past month, there are reports that he's been more consistently hitting 96 and 97. He's been trending up for those that have been following all year. But if one only looks at strikeouts alone, and had not paid any attention to the backstory, the context and everything else, I understand that his situation might be misunderstood.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #263
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a comparison of Broxton versus the average major league relief pitcher this season:

    Code:
    	k/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	LOB%	HR%	GB%
    MLave	8.3	3.53	3.68	3.85	73%	9.0%	45%
    Broxton	6.3	3.53	2.27	3.38	81%	4.3%	57%
    Nice research. It looks as if Broxton is a slightly better than league average pitcher. Since he takes the roster spot of a less than league average pitcher. He takes the role (8th inning RH set-up man) of a less than league average reliever.

    Might not be a great move, but it's at least a positive one.

    If you compare his stats to Bray's, it might even be closer to a full win.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  10. #264
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    I know one thing... Baker and whatever decided the Ondrusek was our RH setup man. Simon and Lecure have been better pitchers than both O and Broxton this season, but neither was going to be used in set-up situations.

    That choice was between O, Broxton, and whomever we were trading for. O is an awful choice, Broxton is probably adequate. His reputation at least makes him usable in set-up situations in Baker's eyes.

    In the end, we gave up a guy who is almost for sure a LOOGY, and a minor league pitcher with flyball rates that precludes him from being anything other than a relief prospect for a guy whom respresents an upgrade over the current options for the role that Broxton will be used in.

    The system is likely broken within, however, the stuff we gave up is probably minimal, and the guy we got fits whatever they are aiming for. Overall its a whatever move, that is probably fine as long as it gets lost in the shuffle of a bigger purpose for a first place team.

  11. #265
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    While I truly believe Broxton makes the Reds better this season, I hate to give up Donnie Joseph for him. JC was an enigma to me, not a 100 prospect, so I'm fine with losing him.

    I had Joseph penciled in as an effective cost controlled guy for the next few years...projecting him to to better than your Brays and Ondruseks. So, I'm just gonna hope for the best on this one, but it is a bit hard to swallow.

    I can't help but wonder (and I'm sure others do too) is how much better the Reds are with Broxton rather than just simply calling up Joseph right now.

    Not gonna harbor a grudge towards Brox however, I'll be cheering for him hard. Just hope it works out.

  12. #266
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So why trade two guys who fit that profile - Sulbaran (95 MPH FB and a plus curve) and Joseph (93 MPH FB and a plus slider) - for one of those guys? Because he used to be really good? Because he has MLB experience?
    Again with the hubris. The Reds certainly dealt for him because of name recognition. They didn't even need to take a look at him, goodness' sakes, its Jonathon Broxton. Why waste money on travel for a scout, they could just check it out on the internet. Yea, that's the decision process for the Reds--name recognition.
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  13. #267
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Again with the hubris. The Reds certainly dealt for him because of name recognition. They didn't even need to take a look at him, goodness' sakes, its Jonathon Broxton. Why waste money on travel for a scout, they could just check it out on the internet. Yea, that's the decision process for the Reds--name recognition.
    It's not necessarily hubris, but....

    There are a lot of ways to run the team, and this just might be a way of satisfying the every day managers. Baker needs to trust his back 3 bullpen arms, and he likely didn't until now. In the grand scheme of things, Baker does lots okay, and we have up a few okay things to get the comfort for the bottom line guy's decision making. In the end, bigger fish to fry, this wont be a thing that costs us materially.

  14. #268
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Hmmm.

    Johnny Cueto's K/9 is 6.8. Broxton's is 6.3.

    Neither misses bats that much. Both have a very low HR/9 rate. Both have a quality e.r.a.

    Both get more ground balls than fly balls, which contributes to that low HR/9 rate.

    I still don't get what's not to like about Broxton. "can he sustain it?" Cueto has had one good season. Can he sustain it? I think that question can be asked of any pitcher in baseball.

    Reds have plenty of relievers who have decent K rates. But alot of their other numbers aren't as good as Broxton's.
    Last edited by Vottomatic; 07-31-2012 at 11:26 PM.
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  15. #269
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Hmmm.

    Johnny Cueto's K/9 is 6.8. Broxton's is 6.3.

    Neither misses bats that much. Both have a very low HR/9 rate. Both have a quality e.r.a.

    Both get more ground balls than fly balls, which contributes to that low HR/9 rate.

    I still don't get what's not to like about Broxton. The only answer I get is "can he sustain it?" Cueto has had one good season. Can he sustain it? I think that question can be asked of any pitcher in baseball.

    Reds have plenty of relievers who have decent K rates. But alot of their other numbers aren't as good as Broxton's.
    Cueto keeps his walk rate in check. Broxton, this season, has walked 60% more batters per 9 innings than Johnny Cueto. Cueto has well above average control. Broxton, not so much.

  16. #270
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Brox has walked more than 1 in an appearance this season three times and allowed more than one earned run twice. Are you sure you are talking about the same guy? I don't see the same crazy bouts of wildness or "barfing" all over himself that you have seen this season.
    You can believe what you want. He also allowed runners to score that were on base and his bouts of wildness are getting behind constantly. I as much as inferred I think he might do well in the playoffs - and as a setup man instead of closer I like him. I just think its an overpay for 2 months of Broxton. But in the games I've seen him pitch he's had me biting my nails and he lost in extra innings a game he should have won. Royals fans are elated to get rid of him.
    I think he'll pitch better for the Reds just getting out of KC - I think just about any player would play better. We'll see.


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