"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Oh, so this is the type of "quality discussion" we'd be losing if we merged with the Sun Deck.
My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!
Broxton's success this year has been modest but he seems to have caused a lot of playable ground balls.
If he continues to do that he should be successful.
If not, he's got a problem because he's not a bat misser.
Hopefully, Broxton will continue to cause a high percentage of ground balls.
His agent said after the surgery back in September that he was going to work on throwing a heavy fastball to induce grounders and rely less on his fastball to blow by people. So yeah, as you say, one hopes it will continue as it seems it's working.
In the meantime, his velocity has been increasing as the year goes on. He was throwing 92-93 in spring training. For the first two months, he was sitting around 94-95. Now the past month, there are reports that he's been more consistently hitting 96 and 97. He's been trending up for those that have been following all year. But if one only looks at strikeouts alone, and had not paid any attention to the backstory, the context and everything else, I understand that his situation might be misunderstood.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Nice research. It looks as if Broxton is a slightly better than league average pitcher. Since he takes the roster spot of a less than league average pitcher. He takes the role (8th inning RH set-up man) of a less than league average reliever.
Might not be a great move, but it's at least a positive one.
If you compare his stats to Bray's, it might even be closer to a full win.
I know one thing... Baker and whatever decided the Ondrusek was our RH setup man. Simon and Lecure have been better pitchers than both O and Broxton this season, but neither was going to be used in set-up situations.
That choice was between O, Broxton, and whomever we were trading for. O is an awful choice, Broxton is probably adequate. His reputation at least makes him usable in set-up situations in Baker's eyes.
In the end, we gave up a guy who is almost for sure a LOOGY, and a minor league pitcher with flyball rates that precludes him from being anything other than a relief prospect for a guy whom respresents an upgrade over the current options for the role that Broxton will be used in.
The system is likely broken within, however, the stuff we gave up is probably minimal, and the guy we got fits whatever they are aiming for. Overall its a whatever move, that is probably fine as long as it gets lost in the shuffle of a bigger purpose for a first place team.
While I truly believe Broxton makes the Reds better this season, I hate to give up Donnie Joseph for him. JC was an enigma to me, not a 100 prospect, so I'm fine with losing him.
I had Joseph penciled in as an effective cost controlled guy for the next few years...projecting him to to better than your Brays and Ondruseks. So, I'm just gonna hope for the best on this one, but it is a bit hard to swallow.
I can't help but wonder (and I'm sure others do too) is how much better the Reds are with Broxton rather than just simply calling up Joseph right now.
Not gonna harbor a grudge towards Brox however, I'll be cheering for him hard. Just hope it works out.
Again with the hubris. The Reds certainly dealt for him because of name recognition. They didn't even need to take a look at him, goodness' sakes, its Jonathon Broxton. Why waste money on travel for a scout, they could just check it out on the internet. Yea, that's the decision process for the Reds--name recognition.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
It's not necessarily hubris, but....
There are a lot of ways to run the team, and this just might be a way of satisfying the every day managers. Baker needs to trust his back 3 bullpen arms, and he likely didn't until now. In the grand scheme of things, Baker does lots okay, and we have up a few okay things to get the comfort for the bottom line guy's decision making. In the end, bigger fish to fry, this wont be a thing that costs us materially.
Hmmm.
Johnny Cueto's K/9 is 6.8. Broxton's is 6.3.
Neither misses bats that much. Both have a very low HR/9 rate. Both have a quality e.r.a.
Both get more ground balls than fly balls, which contributes to that low HR/9 rate.
I still don't get what's not to like about Broxton. "can he sustain it?" Cueto has had one good season. Can he sustain it? I think that question can be asked of any pitcher in baseball.
Reds have plenty of relievers who have decent K rates. But alot of their other numbers aren't as good as Broxton's.
Last edited by Vottomatic; 07-31-2012 at 11:26 PM.
You can believe what you want. He also allowed runners to score that were on base and his bouts of wildness are getting behind constantly. I as much as inferred I think he might do well in the playoffs - and as a setup man instead of closer I like him. I just think its an overpay for 2 months of Broxton. But in the games I've seen him pitch he's had me biting my nails and he lost in extra innings a game he should have won. Royals fans are elated to get rid of him.
I think he'll pitch better for the Reds just getting out of KC - I think just about any player would play better. We'll see.
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