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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #316
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And he probably can't. He gives up few fly balls, but he should have allowed more than 1 home run this year. He has a 1.42 WHIP but has a sub 2.50 ERA. That doesn't really jive with what one would expect does it?
    There is some precedence for relief pitchers being able to maintain lower than the average HR/FB ratio over long periods of time (obviously not to the extent Broxton is currently doing).

    Just saying that in combination with his groundball skills, it is quite possible that there are some real skills there.

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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Because the data doesn't show that.

    here is his rolling averages (i.e. the data used to draw the trend line):

    95.9 95.4 94.0 95.1 95.0 94.4 95.1

    Where is a 2 mph increase? If anything over his last 10 or so appearances, he's averaged 1 mph slower than his first 5 appearances.
    Looks to me, as I said in earlier post, the graph might be read to show greater consistency of velocity from outing to outing from about appearance 13 onward. But it does look as if the average velocity hasn't really varied much.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Because the data doesn't show that.

    here is his rolling averages (i.e. the data used to draw the trend line):

    95.9 95.4 94.0 95.1 95.0 94.4 95.1

    Where is a 2 mph increase? If anything over his last 10 or so appearances, he's averaged 1 mph slower than his first 5 appearances.
    This was posted by Brutus. Do you have a reason to believe these numbers are false?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Also, as far as the improving velocity subject, Brooks' FX chart has Broxton's fastball speed by month as:

    March (94.48)
    April (95.79)
    May (95.95)
    June (95.66)
    July (96.72)

    So his data suggests that the fastball speed has gradually improved all season, sans a small dip last month.

  5. #319
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    There is some precedence for relief pitchers being able to maintain lower than the average HR/FB ratio over long periods of time (obviously not to the extent Broxton is currently doing).

    Just saying that in combination with his groundball skills, it is quite possible that there are some real skills there.
    Youre right that relief pitchers as a group can maintain a lower HR/FB% than starters. That said, Broxton's is different than his norms (significantly lower)so one would have to argue its a new change in skillset. Could it be? Maybe. But we're dealing with alot of randomness given the sample size.

    A safe, conservative interpretation given he's actually been below average concerning contact and missing bats and his IFF% hasn't been high (in other words, it's tough to argue he's inducing weak contact), is that the HR/FB% is a peripheral that will regress.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #320
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Random data point... Listened to Lance talk to Jocketty about the trade a couple nights ago on the radio.

    Walt said the Reds projected Sulbaran as a back of the rotation starter and Joseph as a middle reliever. He said he wouldn't be surprised to see Joseph up with the Royals later this season.

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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    This was posted by Brutus. Do you have a reason to believe these numbers are false?
    I have reason to believe his average fastball velocity has not increased with time, because examining his velocity across appearances indicates that it hasn't.

    The problem with split data is that it arbitrarily breaks up the data into groups that can confound interpretation. For instance, Brooks' pitch f/x data for Broxton only includes 6 fastballs for the month of July, a key month for the argument that Broxton is increasing velocity-and a significant outlier.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I have reason to believe his average fastball velocity has not increased with time, because examining his velocity across appearances indicates that it hasn't.

    The problem with split data is that it arbitrarily breaks up the data into groups that can confound interpretation. For instance, Brooks' pitch f/x data for Broxton only includes 6 fastballs for the month of July, a key month for the argument that Broxton is increasing velocity-and a significant outlier.
    If his FB is averaging 97 isn't that enough?

    Why continue to talk about IFF%, HR/FB ratio and any other FG stats you can dig up and ignore the big picture? Is he now the best RHP relief pitcher on this team? I think a great case can be made that he is better than what we've got and if that's the case then he'll be a contributor to this team's fortunes. If a contending team can acquire a RHP who's better than any other RH reliever on its roster, don't you have to get him?

  9. #323
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    If his FB is averaging 97 isn't that enough?

    Why continue to talk about IFF%, HR/FB ratio and any other FG stats you can dig up and ignore the big picture? Is he now the best RHP relief pitcher on this team? I think a great case can be made that he is better than what we've got and if that's the case then he'll be a contributor to this team's fortunes. If a contending team can acquire a RHP who's better than any other RH reliever on its roster, don't you have to get him?
    I could make a case that he isn't better than LeCure, Simon or Arredondo just as easily as you could make the case that he is.

    And no, you don't have to get him in that case. It depends on what it costs.

  10. #324
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I could make a case that he isn't better than LeCure, Simon or Arredondo just as easily as you could make the case that he is.

    And no, you don't have to get him in that case. It depends on what it costs.
    I think you can make a much better case for Walt overpaying for him than you can that any of those other pitchers are better options than Brox. If you don't like Brox' walk rate I can't wait to hear your thoughts on Arredondo's

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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I think you can make a much better case for Walt overpaying for him than you can that any of those other pitchers are better options than Brox. If you don't like Brox' walk rate I can't wait to hear your thoughts on Arredondo's
    I don't like Arredondo's walk rate at all. But while it is bad, he also misses a lot of bats. Missing bats > groundballs.

  12. #326
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't like Arredondo's walk rate at all. But while it is bad, he also misses a lot of bats. Missing bats > groundballs.
    So the K/BB ratio is pretty much a push in this comparison. So, with that being equal, isn't GB after walk better than K after walk, since we're counting angels on the head of a pin for this transaction?
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  13. #327
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't like Arredondo's walk rate at all. But while it is bad, he also misses a lot of bats. Missing bats > groundballs.
    1. Reds have #2 bullpen in all of mlb.
    2. If you compare Broxton's numbers to the pitchers in our bullpen, his BB/9 rate is tied for third best out of 7 pitchers. His ground ball rate is the best. His earned run average is second best.
    3. Brutus has data showing clearly that Broxton's fastball has increased in velocity by each month. Backed up by fact by Brutus, not debatable.

    It's notable to me that the Reds bullpen has guys with good K rates but Broxton's e.r.a. is lower than them. Then there's Johnny Cueto with a similar K rate to Broxton. Cueto has lead the NL for most of the season in starter e.r.a. I don't see anyone questioning Johnny or saying he can't sustain it. And he doesn't thrive on missing bats. He just knows how to induce ground balls, keep hitters off balance, and rely on his defense mostly.
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I think you can make a much better case for Walt overpaying for him than you can that any of those other pitchers are better options than Brox. If you don't like Brox' walk rate I can't wait to hear your thoughts on Arredondo's
    ...or Ondrusek's. Or Lecure's. Or Masset's (2010 & 2011). The list goes on and on and on. Broxton is tied for the third best walk rate in the bullpen with Simon, with only Marshall and Chapman being better.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  15. #329
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    If his FB is averaging 97 isn't that enough?
    Was it averaging 97? You're basing that upon 6 pitches measured on one night in Anaheim. How do you know that his recorded velocity wasn't effected by the system measuring pitch f/x data? In other words, would he have averaged 97 if he had thrown those 6 pitches in his home park that night? I don't know but I do know that when looking at his velocity averaged over all of his appearances for the month of July, it's 95.1 mph (which leads to a significantly different conclusion concerning the question of whether he's increasing his velocity with time this season).


    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Why continue to talk about IFF%, HR/FB ratio and any other FG stats you can dig up and ignore the big picture? Is he now the best RHP relief pitcher on this team? I think a great case can be made that he is better than what we've got and if that's the case then he'll be a contributor to this team's fortunes. If a contending team can acquire a RHP who's better than any other RH reliever on its roster, don't you have to get him?
    The big picture is the whole point of trying to evaluate what Broxton might do going forward. I haven't pooh poohed the trade. I just found it curious and have suggested there is reason to beleive that it might not be the difference maker that a look at either his ERA of FIP as a Royal might make it seem while arguing it's not really appropriate to predicate a projection upon the notion that his velocity has and should be expected to increase.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #330
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    If the same guy scouted him that scouted Alfredo Simon, then I have to give that guy the benefit of the doubt.
    Even more importantly, the Reds have the coaching staff that have coaxed performance out of Simon, Arredondo, Lecure and Ondrusek. Broxton certainly gives the Reds something to work with, and the Reds are making a habit of turning whatever ability a reliever has into performance.

    Of course, you could then argue why bother trading for a reliever since you might be able to churn young arms off the assembly line? Seems to me the answer is this is a playoff trade. Broxton's been around the block and the Reds are looking for a RH reliever to handle late game pressure situations. It's the kind of trade a confident team makes.

    However, Broxton needs a nickname. Perhaps the New Tub of Goo or, for fans of old school schlock sci-fi, the Red Gargantua. Fans could serenade with

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