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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #571
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    It's actually fairly jarring.
    got that right. I still can't get used to it.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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  3. #572
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I agree with most everything you wrote except the above. He was signed to give Chapman a breather and help get us into the playoffs. In that sense he was a good pickup and that does prove some people right or wrong. In other words, he was signed to perform " a small sample size" and by any definition, he did that well
    This is a good point. From the "did it work" perspective, what we could reasonably expect is pretty much irrelevant. It has worked, quite well.

    Whether or not he's really "this good" is beside the point -- a worthwhile, but different question.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-26-2012 at 10:08 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #573
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    A few points:

    3. With that said, the sample we have with the Reds is very small, and doesn't really prove that anyone was right or wrong.
    We're talking about 20 IP with swings in peripherals that are just as wild as swings in his previous 35 in KC. For instance, it's probably not likely that Broxton is going to maintain a HR/FB%=0 or a BB/9 that is only almost a third of his career norm and his batted ball tendencies have been dramtically different as a Red than they've been as a Royal this year and these are a departure fomr his career numbers too.

    Relief pitchers are highly volatile. The Reds probably scouted him to make sure he was throwing normal and went with experience to add depth given it was a low cost move and it has paid off.

    One thing is definately certain though. It's pretty obvious that Broxton's velocity hasn't been increasing with time so any argument that future performance would be dramatically improved due to increasing velocity would have to be considered an invalid argument.
    Last edited by jojo; 09-26-2012 at 10:03 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #574
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Broxton is the Super Masset. I seriously doubt he will be back and with Chapman moving to starter sooner than later, Broxton should be resigned. I want him back.
    Yep.. I really liked this trade at the time. This isn't "I told you so post", but I'm glad the trade has worked out so well.
    Overall, Walt has been great at identifying and acquiring pitching (especially relief pitching) that other clubs are perhaps undervaluing.. Got to give the Reds' various staff (Price, Dusty, etc) credit as well.

    I would love to resign Broxton. I'm not sure he'll want to come back unless he's annoited the closer, but the guy is certainly getting the job done and filling in the void as the best RH reliever we have.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  6. #575
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    I guess that kinda makes up for your "bet the Padres are laughing b/c they traded us Latos" comment earlier this year, V-matic.

    Been waiting to use this one. Just jabbin' at ya (no offense!).
    I'll admit I make emotional off the cuff remarks. And I'm learning that they'll be thrown in my face and to watch what I say. Touche'.

    In the end, the rebuilding Padres got what they needed. And the Reds got what they needed. I just wish there was a way to eliminate Latos' slow start to the season.

    I think the Padres will be much improved next season. But the only one I think we will miss is Grandal at this point.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  7. #576
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This is a good point. From the "did it work" perspective, what we could reasonably expect is pretty much irrelevant. It has worked, quite well.

    Whether or not he's really "this good" is beside the point -- a worthwhile, but different question.
    I would argue it's the same point as evaluating the guy. 20 innings doesn't prove that he's pitching well, or that he is a good pitcher.

    I'm more or less saying, it was a fine move at the time because they were getting a reliever pitching pretty well, with past experience of being even better. They didn't give up a ton to get him. But looking at 20 innings, where that one flyball on Miami that easily could have gone out anywhere would have made his stats look about half as nice due to the small sample is just not the best way to evaluate the move.

  8. #577
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    They didn't give up a ton to get him. But looking at 20 innings, where that one flyball on Miami that easily could have gone out anywhere would have made his stats look about half as nice due to the small sample is just not the best way to evaluate the move.
    What is the best way to evaluate the trade?

  9. #578
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    What is the best way to evaluate the trade?
    I think at the time of the trade. If his arm broke in his first inning as a Red, I would not have deemed the trade to be a bad one.

    I don't think you can really evaluate anything well in 20 innings.

  10. #579
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I think at the time of the trade. If his arm broke in his first inning as a Red, I would not have deemed the trade to be a bad one.

    I don't think you can really evaluate anything well in 20 innings.
    Pretty much. By evalauting the rationale (as much as can be known) or the strength of arguments for and against at the time of the trade, an assessment is actually much freer from the noise that occurs as life happens.

    Frankly, with most relief pitchers, it's pretty much a coin flip. In Broxton's case, look at the medical records, have some scouts watch him pitch and then not pay alot for him. Its pretty hard to argue with what seems to be their rationale-placating a trust issue and a depth concern with their pen coupled with Broxton's a playoff track record proably helping too.

    Would Broxton pitching badly in a Reds uniform really invalidate their reason's for trading for him? If anything, I'd argue Chapman's issues would speak more to a evaluation than any results Broxton actually produced.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #580
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Yeah, what M2 said about the Reds' ability to scout relievers that they think they can do something with. I didn't like this move. I hated the Simon move. How cool is it that my favorite team knows what it's doing?
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  12. #581
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I think at the time of the trade. If his arm broke in his first inning as a Red, I would not have deemed the trade to be a bad one.

    I don't think you can really evaluate anything well in 20 innings.
    Well there's one type of evaluation obviously done at the time of a trade but I think hindsight is the best way to evaluate one. Certainly allowances need to be made for injuries if they were not foreseen at the time such as Ryan Madson's.

    In this case some fans were saying "Broxton will help" while others were saying "no, he's not that good anymore". In hindsight we can see who was good at pronosticating and who wasn't because afterall that's what trades are all about: predicting the future.

    As for your comment on 20 innings, that's sometimes all there is when you acquire a "rental" in MLB.

  13. #582
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    As for your comment on 20 innings, that's sometimes all there is when you acquire a "rental" in MLB.
    I understand that. I just think that it's not enough. I thought it was fair to conclude that he would be a useful addition at the time of the trade, and my opinion has maybe only marginally strenghtened since the trade. Based on past history, I'm still pretty comfortable that Broxton is not a complete lockdown guy and very well might have an ugly inning at a key spot in him. If that happens in the first playoff game, does the trade become a failure? I really don't think so.

  14. #583
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Yeah, what M2 said about the Reds' ability to scout relievers that they think they can do something with. I didn't like this move. I hated the Simon move. How cool is it that my favorite team knows what it's doing?
    Nope, not true at all... I know, I read it on Redszone

  15. #584
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I would argue it's the same point as evaluating the guy. 20 innings doesn't prove that he's pitching well, or that he is a good pitcher.

    In 20 innings, he's K'ed lots, walked few, and gotten mega ground balls. And given up few runs. So whether you are an ERA guy or an xFIP guy, he's gotten decent results, so I would say he's pitchuing good.

    Whether that will continue or whether he's a good pitcher is yet to be determined.

    He has certainly looked imposing out there recently.

  16. #585
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    I'd say 20 IP is a pretty decent sample size for relief pitchers.
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