"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-26-2012 at 10:08 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
We're talking about 20 IP with swings in peripherals that are just as wild as swings in his previous 35 in KC. For instance, it's probably not likely that Broxton is going to maintain a HR/FB%=0 or a BB/9 that is only almost a third of his career norm and his batted ball tendencies have been dramtically different as a Red than they've been as a Royal this year and these are a departure fomr his career numbers too.
Relief pitchers are highly volatile. The Reds probably scouted him to make sure he was throwing normal and went with experience to add depth given it was a low cost move and it has paid off.
One thing is definately certain though. It's pretty obvious that Broxton's velocity hasn't been increasing with time so any argument that future performance would be dramatically improved due to increasing velocity would have to be considered an invalid argument.
Last edited by jojo; 09-26-2012 at 10:03 AM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Yep.. I really liked this trade at the time. This isn't "I told you so post", but I'm glad the trade has worked out so well.
Overall, Walt has been great at identifying and acquiring pitching (especially relief pitching) that other clubs are perhaps undervaluing.. Got to give the Reds' various staff (Price, Dusty, etc) credit as well.
I would love to resign Broxton. I'm not sure he'll want to come back unless he's annoited the closer, but the guy is certainly getting the job done and filling in the void as the best RH reliever we have.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I'll admit I make emotional off the cuff remarks. And I'm learning that they'll be thrown in my face and to watch what I say. Touche'.
In the end, the rebuilding Padres got what they needed. And the Reds got what they needed. I just wish there was a way to eliminate Latos' slow start to the season.
I think the Padres will be much improved next season. But the only one I think we will miss is Grandal at this point.
I would argue it's the same point as evaluating the guy. 20 innings doesn't prove that he's pitching well, or that he is a good pitcher.
I'm more or less saying, it was a fine move at the time because they were getting a reliever pitching pretty well, with past experience of being even better. They didn't give up a ton to get him. But looking at 20 innings, where that one flyball on Miami that easily could have gone out anywhere would have made his stats look about half as nice due to the small sample is just not the best way to evaluate the move.
Pretty much. By evalauting the rationale (as much as can be known) or the strength of arguments for and against at the time of the trade, an assessment is actually much freer from the noise that occurs as life happens.
Frankly, with most relief pitchers, it's pretty much a coin flip. In Broxton's case, look at the medical records, have some scouts watch him pitch and then not pay alot for him. Its pretty hard to argue with what seems to be their rationale-placating a trust issue and a depth concern with their pen coupled with Broxton's a playoff track record proably helping too.
Would Broxton pitching badly in a Reds uniform really invalidate their reason's for trading for him? If anything, I'd argue Chapman's issues would speak more to a evaluation than any results Broxton actually produced.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Well there's one type of evaluation obviously done at the time of a trade but I think hindsight is the best way to evaluate one. Certainly allowances need to be made for injuries if they were not foreseen at the time such as Ryan Madson's.
In this case some fans were saying "Broxton will help" while others were saying "no, he's not that good anymore". In hindsight we can see who was good at pronosticating and who wasn't because afterall that's what trades are all about: predicting the future.
As for your comment on 20 innings, that's sometimes all there is when you acquire a "rental" in MLB.
I understand that. I just think that it's not enough. I thought it was fair to conclude that he would be a useful addition at the time of the trade, and my opinion has maybe only marginally strenghtened since the trade. Based on past history, I'm still pretty comfortable that Broxton is not a complete lockdown guy and very well might have an ugly inning at a key spot in him. If that happens in the first playoff game, does the trade become a failure? I really don't think so.
In 20 innings, he's K'ed lots, walked few, and gotten mega ground balls. And given up few runs. So whether you are an ERA guy or an xFIP guy, he's gotten decent results, so I would say he's pitchuing good.
Whether that will continue or whether he's a good pitcher is yet to be determined.
He has certainly looked imposing out there recently.
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