Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

[Sea Ray]

Sure, he has. But he has done it by being an entirely different player. It would be like trading for Juan Pierre, then Juan Pierre turning into Todd Frazier. Nothing suggested Juan Pierre would turn into Todd Frazier. Just like nothing suggested that Broxton would cut his walk rate by 60% and increase his strikeout rate by 43%. To expect such a turnaround is crazy. Even if you expected improvement, those kinds of improvements are not one anyone should have reasonably expected. Heck, if he would only have improved his walk rate by 30% and his strikeout rate by 20%, it would have been in incredible improvement. But he doubled those improvements.

I am not at all upset that Broxton is performing outstandingly. I don't believe for a second that I was wrong about what I said at the time of the trade in regards to Broxton. Nothing suggested he was capable of what he has done as a Red so far, or even close to it.

Doug, forget the Todd Frazier analogies. You said that Broxton would not help this bullpen and you were dead wrong on that. Others said that he'd be a nice addition. Forget the 43 or 60% numbers. He was a nice addition no matter what math you use. If you were advising Walt you would have told him not to acquire Brox and we'd have a weaker team today

[Sea Ray]

I've been wrong before.

See guys, not that hard to do.

You might try it some day

I LOVE to say I was wrong when reality works to the Reds favor.

[Sea Ray]

Doug, you can't be surprised that folks are climbing all over you here. You've posted 71 times in this thread, twice that of any other member, and just about all of it has been stuff like this:

Oh joy, we might use a guy who walks a bunch of guys and can't strike guys out as a set up man and closer. Watch out NL. Watch. Out.

I wouldn't put him at the back end of the bullpen. Of course I wouldn't put Broxton there either and I guess that is the difference. Broxton to me profiles as a guy who should be pitching in the 6th inning. If the best asset you have is that you allow a lot of groundballs, you aren't a back end of the bullpen guy.

I understand where you're coming from but I don't see a guy who's "giving up walks". He walked two in the month of July and hasn't walked more than two in any outting this year.

I'm not expecting the pre shoulder woes Brox but I do think he's an upgrade over any RH pitcher we have in our pen now.

That said, I do think we overpaid for him

Brutus, I will take Addedondo and Simon over Broxton. Counting on him to "keep" gaining velocity isn't something I am paying for. Maybe Walt was.

The difference with Broxton and Simon, LeCure and Arredondo and their walk rates is that those guys also strike out plenty of guys. Broxton doesn't.

Why do you say that given that the data shows a 2 MPH increase since the beginning of the year?

I could make a case that he isn't better than LeCure, Simon or Arredondo just as easily as you could make the case that he is.

And no, you don't have to get him in that case. It depends on what it costs.

Humbly I'd add that my projections were correct on this player in that he'd be a valuable back of the bullpen RH arm. You are correct in that even I underestimated his contributions, but I correctly estimated that he'd be a solid contributor whereas you flat out said he wouldn't.

[VR]

I've been wrong before.

See guys, not that hard to do.

You might try it some day

I'm on the same page as woy.

He has been wrong before.

[westofyou]

I'm on the same page as woy.

He has been wrong before.

So true.

Methinks some guys who post here need to get married so they will know how wrong they are (and how often they are)

[VR]

So true.

Methinks some guys who post here need to get married so they will know how wrong they are (and how often they are)

or have kids

[Homer Bailey]

If Broxton blows 3 playoff games, and goes back to being the averagish pitcher he was in KC, will those thumping their chest now stand up and say they were wrong?

20 IP is nothing that can be conclude on definitively. And neither is 3 IP in the playoffs.

Broxton's performance has been a pleasant surprise, and we're all thrilled with that. Many people said they thought he would be a positive addition. I haven't seen where anyone said they thought his peripherals would improve as much as they have. If Doug, or anyone would have known his peripherals would look like they currently do, EVERYONE would have thought this was a great trade. But there was no way to predict this turnaround, the same way there is no way to predict whether or not we can expect similar results going forward, considering we're talking about a 20 IP sample.

[M2]

Pretty much. By evalauting the rationale (as much as can be known) or the strength of arguments for and against at the time of the trade, an assessment is actually much freer from the noise that occurs as life happens.

Frankly, with most relief pitchers, it's pretty much a coin flip. In Broxton's case, look at the medical records, have some scouts watch him pitch and then not pay alot for him. Its pretty hard to argue with what seems to be their rationale-placating a trust issue and a depth concern with their pen coupled with Broxton's a playoff track record proably helping too.

Would Broxton pitching badly in a Reds uniform really invalidate their reason's for trading for him? If anything, I'd argue Chapman's issues would speak more to a evaluation than any results Broxton actually produced.

Good points, this was clearly a move to add bullpen depth to a team with playoff aspirations. That's rarely a bad idea.

What's made it successful (outside of the luck factor that's part of every player acquisition) is the Reds seem to have done a good job of scouting Broxton and then in managing him. The question in any deadline deal is "Can the player deliver what you're hoping for on the field?" In the case of Broxton the answer is clearly yes. He is capable of delivering on the field.

In terms of what kind of pitcher is he? As you mentioned, relievers are prone to hot and cold swings. Sometimes they're season-long swings, sometimes back and forth within individual seasons. Broxton's ability is probably closer to his combined numbers than anything he did with just KC or with the Reds. And even that doesn't really capture it.

Ultimately what we should ask of any major league organization is that it do a quality job of spotting pitchers who can work out and then putting those pitchers in situations where they can succeed. That would seem to be a fair description of the Reds organization at this moment. And its run of successes argues for giving the organization the benefit of a doubt when it comes to relievers who could go either way.

[westofyou]

If Broxton blows 3 playoff games, and goes back to being the averagish pitcher he was in KC, will those thumping their chest now stand up and say they were wrong?

20 IP is nothing that can be conclude on definitively. And neither is 3 IP in the playoffs.

Yes.

Why?

Because we'd be wrong.

Nothing wrong about that... or so I thought

[lollipopcurve]

The guy's thrown well. Velocity excellent at times. Control excellent. He admirably plugged the gaping hole when Chapman went down, allowing the Reds to breeze down the stretch.

For me, you can close the books on this one, a win for the Reds. No matter what happens in the playoffs.

[Homer Bailey]

Yes.

Why?

Because we'd be wrong.

Nothing wrong about that... or so I thought

The point was that if it could all turn in three innings, can anyone really definitively say that the move was right or wrong? Was the Latos move right or wrong after three starts?

[757690]

Reds wanted a veteran reliever with closing experience to enable them to rest Chapman and/or in case Chapmen got hurt. Personally, Broxton wouldn't be on the top of my list of guys I'd want for that role, but he'd be on the list somewhere.

Regardless of how Broxton does in the playoffs, the trade was a success from that perspective. The Reds wanted a guy to fill a role, and the guy they got filled that role.

[M2]

The point was that if it could all turn in three innings, can anyone really definitively say that the move was right or wrong? Was the Latos move right or wrong after three starts?

The Latos move was right before his first start. And, for the reasons jojo listed, I'd say the Broxton move was right before his first appearance.

[traderumor]

If Broxton blows 3 playoff games, and goes back to being the averagish pitcher he was in KC, will those thumping their chest now stand up and say they were wrong?

20 IP is nothing that can be conclude on definitively. And neither is 3 IP in the playoffs.

Broxton's performance has been a pleasant surprise, and we're all thrilled with that. Many people said they thought he would be a positive addition. I haven't seen where anyone said they thought his peripherals would improve as much as they have. If Doug, or anyone would have known his peripherals would look like they currently do, EVERYONE would have thought this was a great trade. But there was no way to predict this turnaround, the same way there is no way to predict whether or not we can expect similar results going forward, considering we're talking about a 20 IP sample.

You can't have it both ways. If you can't make any conclusions on 20 IP, then why would three blown playoff games lead to any conclusions leading to correct/incorrect judgments of opinions?

[mdccclxix]

I'm constantly impressed with Walt's (and his staffs) feel for a baseball team. Fact is, if every move he's made made most fans happy, we'd be stuck in mediocrity still. When it comes down to it, Walt's one of the best GM's in the league, and has been, bar none, for well over a decade. It's not wise to try to outsmart him with just one angle, because he's working on several angles any of us would be oblivious to. Plus, I contend, he's got a feel for the game and how to create a real living breathing team. That's all I can conclude from the confounding and excellent moves he's made to get the Reds to the best record in baseball with the best bullpen in the league with the best starting staff in 20 years with the best defense and the best hitter in baseball. The guy is walking the golden road and we get to be on the bandwagon. Lucky us.