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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #616
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The point was that if it could all turn in three innings, can anyone really definitively say that the move was right or wrong? Was the Latos move right or wrong after three starts?
    If someone posts over and over that it's wrong I'm pretty sure they are saying it's wrong.

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  3. #617
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    You can't have it both ways. If you can't make any conclusions on 20 IP, then why would three blown playoff games lead to any conclusions leading to correct/incorrect judgments of opinions?
    I agree. Which is why I said this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    20 IP is nothing that can be conclude on definitively. And neither is 3 IP in the playoffs.

  4. #618
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    What is gridlock?

    1. A high OBP lineup loading the bases
    2. the U.S. Congress
    3. Redszone discussing the aftermath of a trade
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #619
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Homer, what I think we can say was wrong was the take that Broxton was a longshot with little chance of working out. He was, at absolute worst, a medium shot and he's clearly got some things working for him (I'll bet the Reds liked that he was keeping the ball in the park).

    If someone's take was that he's a middling arm and not necessarily someone you want on the mound in critical situations, then I'd say that door is still open. Though that also describes most relievers. Very few are sure things. So that doesn't really count as useful insight that argues for or against the deal.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  6. #620
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    If Broxton blows 3 playoff games, and goes back to being the averagish pitcher he was in KC, will those thumping their chest now stand up and say they were wrong?

    20 IP is nothing that can be conclude on definitively. And neither is 3 IP in the playoffs.

    Broxton's performance has been a pleasant surprise, and we're all thrilled with that. Many people said they thought he would be a positive addition. I haven't seen where anyone said they thought his peripherals would improve as much as they have. If Doug, or anyone would have known his peripherals would look like they currently do, EVERYONE would have thought this was a great trade. But there was no way to predict this turnaround, the same way there is no way to predict whether or not we can expect similar results going forward, considering we're talking about a 20 IP sample.
    Man, some of you are tough. If you'd take away what Broxton has done to get us a double digit lead based on what he does in the post season then I'd have to say I disagree. Let's give Walt his kudos with the understanding that anything can happen in the playoffs.

    When you acquire a rental then 20 innings is everything. That's all you acquired him to do. I don't understand the sample size argument where a rental is concerned

  7. #621
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    What is gridlock?

    1. A high OBP lineup loading the bases
    2. the U.S. Congress
    3. Redszone discussing the aftermath of a trade
    I'm continually amazed that Redszone can argue anything. I'd think that we'd all be in agreement that Broxton was a good acquisition. Only on RZ would someone argue "no he wasn't. He's only pitched 20 innings".

  8. #622
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Except the blackjack analogy, as simplistic and understandable as you made it, isn't really what we have here, unless you want to say that the Reds had been counting cards and knew that there were only a few high cards left in the deck, so they had some supportable reason(s) to believe that they would win this hand.

    I think it is acceptable to give the Reds more credit than they ignorantly said "hit me" and luckily drew a good card. Using that analogy is honestly insulting a lot of folks' intelligence around these parts.
    If you read my earlier post, you'll see that I did say I was completely open to the possibility that the Reds were acting on information not available to the general public.

    But to perhaps adjust the analogy, poker may be the better comparison. It's not that the overall odds of success were great. Rather, it's that the pot odds were in the Reds favor. That is, the benefit from winning the hand (a healthy step towards securing a playoff spot) were high enough compared to the cost that it justified the risk that he could return to his previous talent level.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #623
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    So is it so stunning that Broxton is doing this? He's done it before. Some of you wanted to simply ignore the fact that he was coming off an injury and maybe wasn't 100% yet. So I don't think it's fair to say "this turnaround was absolutely unpredictable," because that simply isn't true. Broxton has been a high-leverage arm before. So I don't know why it's so surprising he's had this level of success. It's similar to the Marshall and Rolen deals. Everyone wants to scream about all the great prospects we gave up. When in reality, Walt has an amazing track record of giving up chump change for marquee players.

  10. #624
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Frankly, with most relief pitchers, it's pretty much a coin flip. .
    I agree that it's difficult for us to predict relief pitchers, but I think saying it is a coin flip is pushing it.

    Whatever method Walt uses to pick relief pitchers, he seems to have an above average success rate compared to his peers.

    We can pour over video and numbers at the time of the trade and form our own opinions, but in the end, it's Walt's job to get results.
    I don't know what he saw in Simon, for example. I also don't know what he saw in Hoover (Atlanta didn't really seem to value him highly, neither did much of the publications).. but Walt has gotten great results, and I expect him to continue to get results.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #625
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Many people said they thought he would be a positive addition. I haven't seen where anyone said they thought his peripherals would improve as much as they have. If Doug, or anyone would have known his peripherals would look like they currently do, EVERYONE would have thought this was a great trade. But there was no way to predict this turnaround, the same way there is no way to predict whether or not we can expect similar results going forward, considering we're talking about a 20 IP sample.
    Respectfully, that's not true. Here are some of my posts from July 31, and there were many others that agreed with this. My final post her listed specifically states I thought he could get back to striking out 8-10 guys per nine innings:

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    His velocity has recently been returning, Doug. Remember he's coming off surgery. Those K numbers will be higher by the end of the year IMHO.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Because he's still pretty good. It remains to be seen if he'll be anywhere near as good as he once was, but he's better than Arredondo, Simon and Ondrusek and would help the Reds with high-leverage innings. While he's not throwing, currently, as hard as he once was nor is he missing as many bats, he's helping his cause by throwing a heavy fastball and keeping the ball down. If the velocity continues to improve as reports suggest, then he absolutely will be worth the payment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Even in his only season below 10 K/9, Broxton is still throwing almost a full MPH faster than Simon. Simon's career K/9 is the same as Broxton's 2012. And we all know Broxton has been a better pitcher his entire career than Simon.

    Arredondo is certainly missing more bats, but he's also "walking a bunch of guys" to quote you. You complained about Broxton's 3.5 BB/9 but Arredondo is walking 5.27 guys per nine and also giving up considerably more fly balls. Broxton's FIP is actually as good as Simon's right now and a lot better than Arredondo. And that's only assuming Broxton is doing only what he's doing this year and doesn't revert back more closely to his career talent level. I think it's fair to suggest he'll continue to regress a little bit back to his past, even if he'll never be the total dominating force he once was.

    Broxton, even now, throws 95. That's faster than every reliever this year the Reds have (sans Superman).
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Even if you ignore that he's still only 9 months removed from elbow surgery and that he could conceivably regress back a little closer to what he once was, let's just focus on what he is doing at the moment. And if we only look at that, your description of mediocre, as I understand the meaning of the term, doesn't seem to fit.

    The average of all NL relievers this year is roughly a 3.90 FIP. Broxton, meanwhile, is carrying a 3.38 FIP this year with strong groundball tendencies.

    Again, ignoring the possibility of him getting back closer to Broxton circa-mid 2010, being a half run lower than the average production of a reliever in this league, I have a hard time agreeing that's mediocre. And that's assuming he won't continue to improve as he gets further from his surgery.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    His agent said after the surgery back in September that he was going to work on throwing a heavy fastball to induce grounders and rely less on his fastball to blow by people. So yeah, as you say, one hopes it will continue as it seems it's working.

    In the meantime, his velocity has been increasing as the year goes on. He was throwing 92-93 in spring training. For the first two months, he was sitting around 94-95. Now the past month, there are reports that he's been more consistently hitting 96 and 97. He's been trending up for those that have been following all year. But if one only looks at strikeouts alone, and had not paid any attention to the backstory, the context and everything else, I understand that his situation might be misunderstood.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    As probably the biggest Broxton supporter on this board, I don't think he'll ever get back to striking out 13 guys per nine. I do think, though, he can get back to 8-10 and reinvent himself as a groundball pitcher, as he's now throwing a heavier ball and occasionally mixing in a sinker as well.

    If he does what I think he'll do, Broxton-Marshall-Madson would be a very, very good bullpen and they could move Chapman to the rotation, trading Leake or Bailey for a bat.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #626
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Doug, forget the Todd Frazier analogies. You said that Broxton would not help this bullpen and you were dead wrong on that. Others said that he'd be a nice addition. Forget the 43 or 60% numbers. He was a nice addition no matter what math you use. If you were advising Walt you would have told him not to acquire Brox and we'd have a weaker team today
    He was a nice addition. But I guess what should have been said, though I figured it was implied, was that if Jonathan Broxton comes to the Reds and has the same walk rate and strikeout rate he had in Kansas City, he isn't going to help this team. And he wouldn't have. But he doesn't have anywhere near those things. He has gone from below average in both, to incredibly above average in one and above average in the other.

    If I were advising Walt, I would have said, "His numbers aren't that good despite his shiny ERA. If he comes over to our side and walks that many guys and strikes out so few guys, he isn't going to be an asset to us. Do our scouts/pitching coach see something in the video that suggests he can cut down on the walks or raise his strikeout rate?" and then the conversation would have progressed from there depending on the answer.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 09-26-2012 at 05:15 PM. Reason: typo

  13. #627
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If you're playing blackjack and have 17 and the dealer has a 6 showing, an onlooker would be completely justified in saying that the smart move is to hold. If you then hit and draw a 4 while the dealer winds up with 20, you win and you get to keep the money. But that doesn't mean the onlooker was wrong. He wasn't saying that you WILL lose if you, just that the odds were not in your favor. That you drew the 4 doesn't change the fact that the odds were against you and thus the advice was sound, if wrong.
    .
    No offense, but I have seen this analogy many times to justify someone's prediction.. This is not an "I told you so" post, so please don't take it that way, but it's a poor analogy.

    Very few trade decisions are a no brainer like your analogy.
    Maybe Walt had information that Redszone didn't know about.
    Or maybe the people that disliked the Broxton trade were using the information in a flawed manner to arrive at a wrong conclusion.

    I guess my thought at the time was that the minor leaguers we gave up were fodder that are longshots to stick at the major leagues (much less be an impact). I didn't see a lot of Broxton before the trade, but the skills were there.
    Maybe the numbers didn't show it, but when that Baseball writer implied that Joseph > Broxton right now.. well, that was just silly and closed minded thinking. I'm sure that writer that said that will say that Broxton just got lucky or the blind squirrel found a nut or whatever, but Broxton has pitched extremely well since arriving. He's got to be one of the best trade deadline deals in terms of results vs talent surrendered..

    The sabermatic analysis of Broxton at the time of the trade was certainly interesting.. I am not saying that it was bad/wrong.. just saying, the blackjack analogy doesn't fit in baseball trades.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #628
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    So is it so stunning that Broxton is doing this? He's done it before. Some of you wanted to simply ignore the fact that he was coming off an injury and maybe wasn't 100% yet. So I don't think it's fair to say "this turnaround was absolutely unpredictable," because that simply isn't true. Broxton has been a high-leverage arm before. So I don't know why it's so surprising he's had this level of success. It's similar to the Marshall and Rolen deals. Everyone wants to scream about all the great prospects we gave up. When in reality, Walt has an amazing track record of giving up chump change for marquee players.
    Broxton has never shown anywhere near this ability to keep guys from walking. He is literally at half of his previous career low. So no, he hasn't done this before. And his stuff today, isn't close to what it was when he was "doing it before". When he was in LA and dominating, here is what he was doing:

    Average FB Velocity: 97.05 MPH (94.8 today)
    Fastball value per 100 thrown: 1.39 (1.17 today)
    Slider value per 100 thrown: 2.97 (-0.85 today)

    So yes, he has done it before. But what he was before was a pitcher with elite velocity and a wipe out slider.

    Today, he is a pitcher with very good velocity and a below average slider.

  15. #629
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Doug, you can't be surprised that folks are climbing all over you here. You've posted 71 times in this thread, twice that of any other member
    I don't have 25,000+ posts for nothing....

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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He was a nice addition. But I guess what should have been said, though I figured it was implied, was that if Jonathan Broxton comes to the Reds and has the same walk rate and strikeout rate he had in Kansas City, he isn't going to help this team. And he wouldn't have. But he doesn't have anywhere near those things. He has gone from below average in both, to incredibly above average in one and above average in the other.

    If I were advising Walt, I would have said, "His numbers aren't that good despite his shiny ERA. If he comes over to our side and walks that many guys and strikes out so few guys, he isn't going to be an asset to us. Do our scouts/pitching coach see something in the video that suggests he can cut down on the walks or raise his strikeout rate?" and then the conversation would have progressed from there depending on the answer.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Doug, here is what you said about obtaining Broxton:


    dougdirt:
    Oh joy, we might use a guy who walks a bunch of guys and can't strike guys out as a set up man and closer. Watch out NL. Watch. Out.
    __________________

    Do you really wonder why no one got the "implied" part of your post?


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