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Thread: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

  1. #661
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Forget the scouts here Doug. In this scenario you are the scout. It gets us nowhere if you say something that starts with "if". I said at the time of the trade that he would be the top RH in our bullpen...no ifs. You disagreed with me. We now know who was right
    It gets a whole lot of places because it gets into the thought process behind the decision.

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  3. #662
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think it's pretty fair to say that no one could have predicted that as a Red, Broxton would post a HR/FB%=0, shave 2.2 BB/9 off of his walk rate while posting a 20% IFFB%.
    I don't think I've ever seen anyone bother to predict each and every peripheral for a new player. It would be an exercise in futility. However, he'd only allowed 1 HR during his time in KC. So he was already keeping the ball in the park, and he's historically stingy with the longball. And he still throws mid-90s (consistently Weezer Blue Album and able to dial it up to Pinkerton). Really the question was whether he could shave his BB rate in order to offset the drop in his K rate. Granted he's done better at that than anyone would have projected, but I'll hazard a guess most would have agreed that if he curbed the BBs a bit he'd be fairly effective.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  4. #663
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    2010 wasn't exactly a very good season for Broxton. It wasn't bad, but he walked 4 guys per 9 innings and had a WHIP around 1.48.
    In spite of that, his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all hovering right around 3.00. It was still a good season beyond his control.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #664
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen anyone bother to predict each and every peripheral for a new player. It would be an exercise in futility. However, he'd only allowed 1 HR during his time in KC. So he was already keeping the ball in the park, and he's historically stingy with the longball. And he still throws mid-90s (consistently Weezer Blue Album and able to dial it up to Pinkerton). Really the question was whether he could shave his BB rate in order to offset the drop in his K rate. Granted he's done better at that than anyone would have projected, but I'll hazard a guess most would have agreed that if he curbed the BBs a bit he'd be fairly effective.
    I like the Green Album the best myself

  6. #665
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Well Chapman can throw Make Believe.

  7. #666
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I like the Green Album the best myself
    are you joking? that's my least favorite by a longshot.

  8. #667
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I like the Green Album the best myself
    Yeah, but you also think Green Mind is best. Must be something to do with your love of that color...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  9. #668
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I like the Green Album the best myself
    In my hipster circles, we'd say you're starting a weezer fight.

  10. #669
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    are you joking? that's my least favorite by a longshot.
    Have you heard Death to False Metal? It has a Céline Dion cover.

  11. #670
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen anyone bother to predict each and every peripheral for a new player. It would be an exercise in futility. However, he'd only allowed 1 HR during his time in KC. So he was already keeping the ball in the park, and he's historically stingy with the longball. And he still throws mid-90s (consistently Weezer Blue Album and able to dial it up to Pinkerton). Really the question was whether he could shave his BB rate in order to offset the drop in his K rate. Granted he's done better at that than anyone would have projected, but I'll hazard a guess most would have agreed that if he curbed the BBs a bit he'd be fairly effective.
    Anyone who throws in the 90's, walks only 1.3/9 and doesn't give up any homeruns would be effective.

    The point wasn't about specifically predicting peripherals but rather than his production is largely driven by swings in his peripherals that seem more beholden to sample size than an ability to reproduce them consistently. It's been a level of production that hasn't been Broxtonesque in the underlying peripherals.

    Or in the words, of Patty Smyth...give it time.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #671
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    are you joking? that's my least favorite by a longshot.
    No I like it it 27 minutes of pop

  13. #672
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    No analogy is perfect. But in so far as it conveys the point that reasonably informed projections of likely outcomes can be made based on available information and that both positive and negative outcomes can result regardless of those likelihoods, it's a useful shorthand.
    I agree, but I guess the simple way to say it is this.
    For you, the trade might be "hitting on a 17"
    For Walt, the trade might be "hitting on a 12"

    Did Broxton exceed my expectations since he arrived? Yes. I'm willing to admit that even though I was bullish on him, he outperformed my expectations.
    However.. this is not calling out anyone.. there were people that said Broxton would have zero impact.. that all he'd do is push better pitchers like Simon down in the depth chart..

    I think with Logan basically imploding in the second half, there was a clear need for a RH reliever, and the Reds thought Broxton would help in that area, for relatively little cost. Did I think Broxton would probably be better than any other RH reliever we currently had? Yes.. I guess just because Broxton increased his walk rates and K rates unexpectedly, that doesn't mean the Reds won the trade on dumb luck, or that their thought process was flawed. So your question "What production was expected out of Broxton?" My answer: to be a better RH option than anyone else in the bullpen.

    Will KC ultimately get more value? That's hard to say.. Those young pitchers will probably give KC more innings than we get out of Broxton.. But Broxton is a legitimate difference maker for a contender.. that's hard to compare.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #673
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I don't mean to move the goalposts from my previous posts, and I don't think I am. Just didn't want people to think I'm changing my tone to "what he's currently doing doesn't matter." I will say, if he continues to stay hot through the playoffs, I will certainly factor in this hot run with a lot more credence, and not just consider the playoffs a lucky hot run. If that makes any sense. It probably doesn't.
    That's fair enough.
    If Broxton becomes a gas can in the playoffs, I will not be happy either.
    It will probably change my perception of the trade. (Yea, I know I'm sort of contradicting what I said earlier, but if he's a gas can, I will have a more emotional evaluation of the trade).
    Since he was acquired to help us in the stretch run and playoffs, it's fair to evaluate the trade that way.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #674
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    You wrote a narrative on Broxton as if his skillset was set in stone.

    The point is, those that have essentially turned out to be right recognized that Broxton's narrative was not complete. There were reasons to look beyond the year to date stats, and many people allowed for the suggestion that not only could he improve, but it was perhaps even to some degree, likely.

    You made it very clear at the time in your numerous posts that you were not willing to entertain the notion that there were some reasons to suggest he could improve and be an asset. I think that was the reason you ultimately appear to be wrong on this issue, and the fact that you have been more willing to change your own narrative, than to simply admit that you may have missed the boat on this one seems to make it difficult to get your "implications".
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

  16. #675
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

    The best part about trading for Broxton is that we weren't forced to watch Logan Ondrusek pitch late in a game with a lead nearly as much.


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