I don't think I've ever seen anyone bother to predict each and every peripheral for a new player. It would be an exercise in futility. However, he'd only allowed 1 HR during his time in KC. So he was already keeping the ball in the park, and he's historically stingy with the longball. And he still throws mid-90s (consistently Weezer Blue Album and able to dial it up to Pinkerton). Really the question was whether he could shave his BB rate in order to offset the drop in his K rate. Granted he's done better at that than anyone would have projected, but I'll hazard a guess most would have agreed that if he curbed the BBs a bit he'd be fairly effective.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Well Chapman can throw Make Believe.
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Anyone who throws in the 90's, walks only 1.3/9 and doesn't give up any homeruns would be effective.
The point wasn't about specifically predicting peripherals but rather than his production is largely driven by swings in his peripherals that seem more beholden to sample size than an ability to reproduce them consistently. It's been a level of production that hasn't been Broxtonesque in the underlying peripherals.
Or in the words, of Patty Smyth...give it time.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I agree, but I guess the simple way to say it is this.
For you, the trade might be "hitting on a 17"
For Walt, the trade might be "hitting on a 12"
Did Broxton exceed my expectations since he arrived? Yes. I'm willing to admit that even though I was bullish on him, he outperformed my expectations.
However.. this is not calling out anyone.. there were people that said Broxton would have zero impact.. that all he'd do is push better pitchers like Simon down in the depth chart..
I think with Logan basically imploding in the second half, there was a clear need for a RH reliever, and the Reds thought Broxton would help in that area, for relatively little cost. Did I think Broxton would probably be better than any other RH reliever we currently had? Yes.. I guess just because Broxton increased his walk rates and K rates unexpectedly, that doesn't mean the Reds won the trade on dumb luck, or that their thought process was flawed. So your question "What production was expected out of Broxton?" My answer: to be a better RH option than anyone else in the bullpen.
Will KC ultimately get more value? That's hard to say.. Those young pitchers will probably give KC more innings than we get out of Broxton.. But Broxton is a legitimate difference maker for a contender.. that's hard to compare.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
That's fair enough.
If Broxton becomes a gas can in the playoffs, I will not be happy either.
It will probably change my perception of the trade. (Yea, I know I'm sort of contradicting what I said earlier, but if he's a gas can, I will have a more emotional evaluation of the trade).
Since he was acquired to help us in the stretch run and playoffs, it's fair to evaluate the trade that way.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
The best part about trading for Broxton is that we weren't forced to watch Logan Ondrusek pitch late in a game with a lead nearly as much.
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