When do we start talking about re-signing Ludwick

[kaldaniels]

Let's be careful here. When you're a low-mid revenue team, there's almost always more risk in signing a guy who who turns out to not produce up to his contract than there is in losing a guy you could have had at a discount.

With the former, you lose any opportunity to remedy the problem. With the latter, you've missed on "buy low" opportunity -- but there are still others.

If a guy is a unique talent who cannot otherwise be replaced, you take that risk on the multi-year deal. Otherwise, let's err conservative.

Ideally Ryan accepts the 5 MM option and we all go on from there. But if he finishes this year at his season long pace set so far, that's doubtful.

But for me, it all comes down to what the talent evaluators and medical staff in the club see. If this .850 plus OPS and 25 HR pace (and that's with his lack of playing time) season are for real, I'd be inclined to roll the dice. What other options are there in LF for the next season or two? I don't see much on the horizon.

I agree two years at 14 MM brings risk, but the fact that no better options are
looking this club in the face would allow me to not lose sleep if they made that deal.

[oregonred]

With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

[kaldaniels]

With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

If there is someone targeted that the Reds can get cheaply and is a fair bet to produce, I agree. However I am perhaps jaded by the fact that they acquired Gomes to do the same thing and they ran him out in LF for so long. It just might be harder to find a replacement for Ludwick than it seems.

You like the 2yr/10M deal. I'd be ok with 2yr/14M. Like I mentioned earlier I don't think any of us are too far off with our numbers.

[oregonred]

I'd let the season play out and see what happens. Gomes was a fine stop gap for a short period of time.

[REDREAD]

I agree that Ludwick has some risk, but I think the market has changed quite a bit.

It used to be that above average OF grew on trees.. It was easy to pick up a Michael Tucker, etc..

There seems to be somewhat of a scarcity of decent OF now.. Many good teams were looking for upgrades in that area. I am concerned that if Ludwick walks, finding a decent replacement (without giving up the farm) is going to be difficult.

IMO, it would be worth slightly overpaying Ludwick to avoid trading one of our top 3 prospects to get a replacement. I'm not saying sign him at any price, but it's something to be consider. I'm guessing any quality FA OF are going to be in high demand this winter.

[PickOff]

I've got to bump this up and Ludwick mad props. I did not expect this type of production. A few NL stats to chew on (minimum of 250 at bats to include Kemp):

- 3rd to Ryan Braun and Kemp in HR per at bat at 14.3. Fielder was tops last year at 15.0 and Pujols the year before at 14.
- 8th in Slugging at .555
- 1st in RBIs per at bat at .209
- 1st in ISO
- 17th in wRC+
- 5th in Clutch (Fangraphs - by the way the Reds are 3rd clutchiest behind the Mets and Pirates - Bruce and Cozart the only negative clutch)
- 8 out of 9 LF with a -9.4 UZR/150 (Heisey at positive 4.8 FYI)

So anyway, color me impressed. Defense is sub par, but if he can put up 70% of these numbers the Reds should definitely re-sign this 34 year old to a 2 year deal. And I never thought I would say that.

[Blitz Dorsey]

With the GABP reputation, finding veteran bats with OPS pop like the Ludwick's of the world (Randa's, Hattebergs, etc.) shouldn't really ever be a huge challenge. Ground ball pitchers, Ludwick type stop gaps...

No one could have foreseen a .888 OPS into August (Ryan would be #13 in the NL if qualified - looks to be about 25-30AB's short) and a guy carrying the offense into the stretch run, so we might as well sit back and enjoy this run of good fortune.

Best bet is Walt negotiates a 2 yr/10M type deal in the offseason - assuming the mutual option is not picked up by Ludwick. Don't think Ludwick wants to go anywhere and he's a Walt kind of guy. Upton is a pipe dream, Reds are simply not in a position to pick up another 10M+ contract given the extensions to BP and Votto. Not with Hamilton in the wings and Ludwick as an option through 2013.

I agree with all of this except I think it will take a bit more than 2-years/$10 million. I said 2-years/$11 million in the original post, but Ludwick's value has gone up even more since then. I bet it will take at least $6 mil per year to get him to re-sign (2-years/$12 million). And frankly, he'd be worth it. Who else are we going to get? And before we write this season off as "lucky" or "fortunate" let's not forget this is a guy that had an incredible season in St. Louis (and one other really good year). He's no one-hit wonder. And $6 mil per year over 2 years is hardly a big risk. (I know you weren't saying it was; I'm just throwing that out there.)

[Vottomatic]

Where's the thread titled "When do we start talking about reacquiring Gomes?"