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Thread: 8/2/2012 Reds vs Padres

  1. #241
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Not his head.
    His legs?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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  3. #242
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    My Reds scoring prediction from pre game was 1 run and 2 hits shy. I'll take that!
    You da man!

    Were I to predict it would have been about 7 runs shy

  4. #243
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    So who's up for heading to Paul Brown Stadium for the Bengals practice at 6pm? Seems like an appropriate way to celebrate a Reds win

  5. #244
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Ondrusek is inconsistent, but I think Homer Bailey is piling on. Having watched a lot of baseball this year, there are some bullpens that could use Ondrusek. As for a now back-end of the bullpen guy, he's strong enough to be above average in that role.
    Can't win with 'em

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  6. #245
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    I predicted 3 of 4 for this series, but man, the Padres were very pesky in doing it. The series was starting to remind me of the bad old days. Waiting for Todd Van Poppel to appear out of the bullpen in relief of Jimmy Haynes. If it were not for the bullpen, we could have very easily lost 3 of 4 in this series.

    However, I don't think any "regression" or "Verducci factor" panic is warranted just yet for the starters. I still think it was the random nature of the game.
    Can't win with 'em

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  7. #246
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Big win and the lead is now 3.5 games. Just a little slice of Heaven...
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    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
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  8. #247
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Reds have a 2 game lead on the Nats for home field and for the best record in the majors.

  9. #248
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Nice to see Cozart moved down in the order.

    I was a bit nervous of what would happen when Paul got a full game start. It seems that was a legitimate concern. Overexposed.

    All the hand-wringing about Cairo...and he has a very solid game. I saw 2 webgems from him in the highlights. Diving stab that Enberg was incredulous about. And the barehanded reception of the Cozart flip to start the really slick DP. Toss in a 2 for 4 with a run scored...nice game for Miggy.

    Looks like it was a good game overall. Sad I missed it.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  10. #249
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ...
    Bingo. I like Ondrusek. And I don't need xFIP, WAR, xWAR, ZIPS, unZIPS, UNICEF, ACLU, LMAO, ATOBTTR or any other set of initials to tell me that he's a pretty serviceable reliever.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  11. #250
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Bingo. I like Ondrusek. And I don't need xFIP, WAR, xWAR, ZIPS, unZIPS, UNICEF, ACLU, LMAO, ATOBTTR or any other set of initials to tell me that he's a pretty serviceable reliever.
    To be fair to Ondrusek, or any reliever, you have to compare him to others filling a similar role in the bullpen. While it would be hard to define, it would not be impossible. I would imagine he stacks up pretty well if you ranked relief pitchers 5-7 in the pecking order around MLB.
    Can't win with 'em

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  12. #251
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Bingo. I like Ondrusek. And I don't need xFIP, WAR, xWAR, ZIPS, unZIPS, UNICEF, ACLU, LMAO, ATOBTTR or any other set of initials to tell me that he's a pretty serviceable reliever.
    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    To be fair to Ondrusek, or any reliever, you have to compare him to others filling a similar role in the bullpen. While it would be hard to define, it would not be impossible. I would imagine he stacks up pretty well if you ranked relief pitchers 5-7 in the pecking order around MLB.
    Funny thing is, in the old days, the only stat we cared about for a pitcher was ERA. And if a pitcher had an ERA south of about 3.35, we figured he was effective enough to keep you in the ball game without embarrassing you too often. And 99.9% of the time, we were right.

    I agree Ondrusek is not one of the top five relievers on this team. But the majority of other major league teams would love to have a guy with his stats in their bullpen. Who knows, he may even be better if he didn't have to pitch half the time in GABP.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  13. #252
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Funny thing is, in the old days, the only stat we cared about for a pitcher was ERA. And if a pitcher had an ERA south of about 3.35, we figured he was effective enough to keep you in the ball game without embarrassing you too often. And 99.9% of the time, we were right.

    I agree Ondrusek is not one of the top five relievers on this team. But the majority of other major league teams would love to have a guy with his stats in their bullpen. Who knows, he may even be better if he didn't have to pitch half the time in GABP.
    We clearly will have to agree to disagree, but the bolded part of what you said is just absolutely not true. Back in the day, teams fell victim time and time again to ERA's that were bloated due to random luck over a certain period of time. FIP and xFIP didn't just magically become better predictors of future success, or better indicators of true talent in recent years. Just because no one knew about it then, didn't mean that pitchers that struck out more, walked less, and gave up fewer homer weren't better pitchers than those that relied on excellent defense or luck to get them their outs.

  14. #253
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Bingo. I like Ondrusek. And I don't need xFIP, WAR, xWAR, ZIPS, unZIPS, UNICEF, ACLU, LMAO, ATOBTTR or any other set of initials to tell me that he's a pretty serviceable reliever.
    If you want to plug your ears and say "LALALALALALA", and see what you want to see, then yes, you don't need any of those stats.

    If you want to evaluate him as a pitcher, you need to evaluate things he does well, and things he doesn't do well. He doesn't strike guys out at a good rate. He walks guys at a pretty alarming rate, especially for someone that doesn't strike anyone out. He does a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the park, I'll give you that, but some of that can be contributed to an artificially low HR/FB%, especially for GABP. His GB rate has dropped by a pretty significant amount as well, which is a bit alarming.

    BuckeyeRedLeg has already done the ground work. Granted this is as of last week, but here is some perspective on Logan:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...2&postcount=17

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I'm not sure the struggles of Ondrusek can be completely understood until you put his peripherals into proper context with his peers.

    Of the 155 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 26.2 IP) in 2012, Ondrusek ranks:

    #144 of 155 in fWAR (-.03)
    #138 of 155 in K/9 (5.68)
    #143 of 155 in BB/9 (5.40)
    #141 of 155 in FIP (4.93)
    #152 of 155 in xFIP (5.22)

    NL only (out of 80 relief pitchers with at least 26.2 IP):

    #72 of 80 in fWAR (-.03)
    #74 of 80 in K/9 (5.68)
    #72 of 80 in BB/9 (5.40)
    #71 of 80 in FIP (4.93)
    #77 of 80 in xFIP (5.22)

    And this is not some strange fluke that is only occurring in 2012. Let's look at 2011.


    In 2011, of the 134 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 48.2 IP), Ondrusek ranked:

    #120 of 134 in fWAR (-.02)
    #113 of 134 in K/9 (6.02)
    #104 of 134 in BB/9 (4.11)
    #119 of 134 in FIP (4.43)
    #118 of 134 in xFIP (4.49)

    Now NL only in 2011, out of 71 relief pitchers that qualify:

    #64 of 71 in fWAR (-.02)
    #61 of 71 in K/9 (6.02)
    #54 of 71 in BB/9 (4.11)
    #66 of 71 in FIP (4.43)
    #66 of 71 in xFIP (4.49)

    Since 2010, there have been 66 NL relief pitchers with at least 100 IP. Within that 66, he ranks:


    #63 of 66 in fWAR (-.05)
    #63 of 66 in K/9 (5.93)
    #52 of 66 in BB/9 (3.98)
    #62 of 66 in FIP (4.49)
    #63 of 66 in xFIP (4.52)


    So I guess if one wants to argue with the definition of struggling, fine. Be my guest. If you don't define struggling as being in the bottom 5-10% in nearly every category and being sub-replacement level, then sure, I guess he's not struggling according to that definition.

  15. #254
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    We clearly will have to agree to disagree, but the bolded part of what you said is just absolutely not true. Back in the day, teams fell victim time and time again to ERA's that were bloated due to random luck over a certain period of time. FIP and xFIP didn't just magically become better predictors of future success, or better indicators of true talent in recent years. Just because no one knew about it then, didn't mean that pitchers that struck out more, walked less, and gave up fewer homer weren't better pitchers than those that relied on excellent defense or luck to get them their outs.
    The arguments against Logan sound vaguely familiar to the "Is Cueto Really an Ace" thread from this offseason.

  16. #255
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 8/2/2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I'll give you that, but some of that can be contributed to an artificially low HR/FB%, especially for GABP. His GB rate has dropped by a pretty significant amount as well, which is a bit alarming.
    Why do you word it that way rather than say "to his credit, he has not given up many HRs..."?


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