Should the Reds look to extend Chapman after this season?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

His contract details according to Cotts:


6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
2.034 yrs service after this year (if he stays on 24-man roster entire year)


-$16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20).

-10: $1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player option

-Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series.

-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible (he will not qualify).

-If Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible (he will qualify).

So through 2012, of the $30.25M he signed for, he will have been paid out $4M in salary (10: $1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M), and $6M in signing bonuses ($1.5M at signing and $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010, 2011, 2012) – totaling $10M.

The Reds still owe him $15.25M in guaranteed money ($10.25M in bonuses from 2013-2020) and $5M for salaries in 2013 and 2014 ($2M, $3M). The Reds only really have him locked up for two more years as he has a player option in 2015 ($5M). If he plays through 2015, the Reds still owe him $20.25M plus the $3M bonus for becoming arb-eligble after 2013.

So the question is, should the Reds look to extend him after 2012?

Let’s assume at the end of 2012, he maintains his dominance as a closer and all we know is he has potential to be a starter or continue being a dominant closer. With all that said, since we really only control him through 2014 (two more years) would it make sense to extend him, say through 2017, giving us a guarantee of keeping him at least three more years? And what would it take?







http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...s/?page_id=109

[Vottomatic]

No. I'd wait until the end of 2014. There's always a chance he blows his arm/shoulder/etc. out.

[kaldaniels]

His contract confuses me, but I thought we control him longer than thru 2014?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I did too, Kal, and then I saw that 2015 "player option" on Cotts.

[mdccclxix]

What does arbitration mean in this case? It's not the same as arb 1, arb 2 and arb 3 that most players go through is it?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

If this were a regular situation, he wouldn't be arb-eligible until 2014 (yr 1) then 2015 (yr 2) and then 2016 (yr 3) and then be a FA in 2017.

However, the 2015 player option tells me otherwise. Maybe I have it wrong.

[redsmetz]

What does arbitration mean in this case? It's not the same as arb 1, arb 2 and arb 3 that most players go through is it?

It's an unusual clause & would guess that virtually no one else has it. I would think that it would mean that his salary would be determined by an arbitrator, presumably with the arbitrator picking between his figure or our's. If this is the case, this would be the time to consider extending him, tying him into a differently structured contract.

[hebroncougar]

Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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[mdccclxix]

When he's arb eligible after 2013, he'll get his 3 million as a bonus and then they'll have to determine his salary via arbiter, which could be a lot of money by then if he's a great starter or closer. So 2014 is already looking like he'll make 6-10 million. Rather than go to arbitration, Walt will definitely get something done by then, hopefully with multiple years added on.

This next offseason will be difficult to gauge since he's not a starter yet. Chapman's agents may recommend he wait to see what his next role/value will look like.

[mdccclxix]

Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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It's a fair point.

[PuffyPig]

Doesn't he have to accumulate 6 years of service time to be a free agent like everyone else? Otherwise, its arbitration?

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That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

[mdccclxix]

Depending on the payroll, having Chapman at 2 million next year still allows a closer to be signed while they try him as a starter. That said, they could do a 3 year extension that starts in 2015 for 8, 9, 10 million per? I think fans would love that.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

Thanks for clearing that up. I wasn't sure and I feel much better now.

[mdccclxix]

That is correct.

If he declines his "player option" he doesn't become a FA, it's just that he's arbitration eligible.

aha, that changes things! I think the Reds and Chapman can wait to see if he can start before making the next move. I wouldn't mind a proactive extension, but do have a little concern about the shoulder last offseason and his ability to handle a starters workload, not to mention years of throwing 100 mph.

[I(heart)Freel]

I think it would be bad business to negotiate with a player after a potentially history-book year. They have the time. Wait to see how he does as a starter, then go to the table.