Turn Off Ads?
Page 6 of 12 FirstFirst ... 2345678910 ... LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 174

Thread: Votto out additional 7-10 days

  1. #76
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,093

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    If someone could direct me to the "former major league managers forum" somewhere on these internets so I can lurk and read their dicussions, criticisms and praising of current managers managerial moves, I would be much obliged...I would very much like to linger there, given that they are the only ones who can engage in such discussions.
    Last edited by membengal; 08-13-2012 at 10:43 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #77
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Sigh. You said:


    to which I said:


    That does not mean that there aren't scenarios when he makes a blatantly poor decision. Me having never managed a game has literally nothing to do with the fact that Dusty keeps putting Ondrusek in positions that he shouldn't be in.



    The managerial record argument is one of the worst in all of baseball, in my opinion. It's not basketball or baseball. Put the "best manager" in the game on the worst team, and it's still the worst team. Put the worst manager on the best team, and while it's probably still the best team, there is more a manager can do to bring down a team with his decision making than he can build up a team that is going to over achieve. Did Dusty all of a sudden become a bad manager in 2006 when the Cubs won 66 games? Was he still a bad manager when the Reds won 74 games? Did he magically become better in 2010 when the Reds won 91, only to suck again in 2011 to win 79 games? A teams record is more of a reflection of the actual ball players than it is the manager. That doesn't mean I can't have problems with a manager's decision making, especially when I have strong facts to support my opinions.



    I made a lengthy post this offseason summarizing my thoughts on Dusty. To summarize, there are two parts of managing a team - the locker room factor, and the decision making factor. I'm not going to pretend to understand the locker room factor, but I concede (by basically anyone that has covered him or played for him) that Dusty is excellent at this part. The part that is easiest to evaluate is the decision making, and Dusty drives me up a wall on this side of the coin. In my opinion, he deserves plenty of criticism for some of his philosophies and "Dustification" for his decisions.
    I'm just a little confused because there seems to be a contradiction.

    In the same response where you agreed with me that there isn't a "right" or "wrong" decision in managing a baseball game, you said prior to that:

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
    Am I supposed to agree with every decision Dusty makes, just because he's the manager and he has more experience than me? Or does he sometimes make mistakes that are blatantly wrong and subject to criticism?
    If there's not a right or wrong, then how can someone be blatantly wrong?

    Arguing we shouldn't judge managers based on managerial record is like arguing we shouldn't judge defenders by any defensive metric. Both have major flaws, but in both cases, they're the best we've got.

    I don't pretend managerial record is all or even mostly due to a manager. But for goodness sake's... baseball is a game where many games are decided by one or two runs. If the manager's decisions are as big as you're suggesting, then a bad manager would have a hard time consistently fielding a winning record even with a good team.

    I don't think anyone is saying that because we're not big league managers, we can't criticize. But I do think that since none of us are big league managers, we should somewhat humble in criticizing as recognition that there a) isn't a right or wrong way, and b) we don't have the full perspective or knowledge to make decisions since we are not around the players every day and might not know every little thing that goes on.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #78
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    If someone could direct me to the "former major league managers forum" somewhere on these internets so I can lurk there and read their dicussions, criticisms and praising of current managers managerial moves, I would be much obliged...I would very much like to linger there, given that they are the only ones who can engage in such discussions.
    That's quite a straw man you've built.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #79
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,314

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The Ondrusek citing was simply an example. If you want, I can go into full detail about all the things I disagree with Dusty on. I don't want to do that, and I doubt anyone truly cares to read that. And according to some, I shouldn't be allowed to criticize him because I'm not a major league manager.
    At what point do the constant criticizers take a look and say "You know what, maybe I'm wrong? The guy wins." Dusty makes thousands of decisions per season. To obsess over decisions made here or there doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

  6. #80
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'm just a little confused because there seems to be a contradiction.

    In the same response where you agreed with me that there isn't a "right" or "wrong" decision in managing a baseball game, you said prior to that:



    If there's not a right or wrong, then how can someone be blatantly wrong?

    Arguing we shouldn't judge managers based on managerial record is like arguing we shouldn't judge defenders by any defensive metric. Both have major flaws, but in both cases, they're the best we've got.

    I don't pretend managerial record is all or even mostly due to a manager. But for goodness sake's... baseball is a game where many games are decided by one or two runs. If the manager's decisions are as big as you're suggesting, then a bad manager would have a hard time consistently fielding a winning record even with a good team.

    I don't think anyone is saying that because we're not big league managers, we can't criticize. But I do think that since none of us are big league managers, we should somewhat humble in criticizing as recognition that there a) isn't a right or wrong way, and b) we don't have the full perspective or knowledge to make decisions since we are not around the players every day and might not know every little thing that goes on.
    I'll repeat this I guess, this time bolding the part I have a problem with. Your quote:
    I think the problem here is that people actually have fooled themselves into believing there's a "right" or "wrong" decision with every possible scenario.
    to which I said:
    There isn't a "right or wrong" decision with every possible scenario.
    I then used an example of one of these scenarios.

    That does not mean that there aren't scenarios when he makes a blatantly poor decision. Me having never managed a game has literally nothing to do with the fact that Dusty keeps putting Ondrusek in positions that he shouldn't be in.
    I honestly have no idea how you got to the mangerial/UZR analogy. They aren't even remotely in the same ballpark comparison wise. Managerial wins tell us next to nothing, in my opinion, about a manager's decision making, and a whole heck of a lot more about who is on the team. It's impossible to drill down to a number.

  7. #81
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I honestly have no idea how you got to the mangerial/UZR analogy. They aren't even remotely in the same ballpark comparison wise. Managerial wins tell us next to nothing, in my opinion, about a manager's decision making, and a whole heck of a lot more about who is on the team. It's impossible to drill down to a number.

    First, please show me evidence of any managerial decision that is "blatantly wrong" and support it with evidence that contradicts the decision by the order of a 80-90 percent probability. Unless you can do that on any of Dusty's decisions, they aren't "blatantly wrong." To be obviously wrong, there has to be something that makes it obvious, and one would think there would be statistical backing to make it such, not just a poster's whim or preference.

    As far as managerial wins, games are a product of players making plays and managers making decisions to improve odds of them making such plays.

    For you to argue Dusty often makes decisions you feel are "blatantly wrong," then turn around and say he should get no credit for winning percentage is completely contradictory. You're basically saying he's responsible for losing games but gets no credit for winning games. If managers don't have a huge impact on wins and losses, as you're now trying to suggest, then I guess you shouldn't fret so much over Dusty's managerial decisions.

    The talent level is a huge factor in wins and losses. That's not being disputed. But managers also impact that as well. If they didn't, you wouldn't be so vocal against Dusty's decision-making. Because if you didn't think it mattered much, why get so upset over it?
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-13-2012 at 10:58 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #82
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    First, please show me evidence of any managerial decision that is "blatantly wrong" and support it with evidence that contradicts the decision by the order of a 80-90 percent probability. Unless you can do that on any of Dusty's decisions, they aren't "blatantly wrong." To be obviously wrong, there has to be something that makes it obvious, and one would think there would be statistical backing to make it such, not just a poster's whim or preference.

    As far as managerial wins, games are a product of players making plays and managers making decisions to improve odds of them making such plays.

    For you to argue Dusty often makes decisions you feel are "blatantly wrong," then turn around and say he should get no credit for winning percentage is completely contradictory. You're basically saying he's responsible for losing games but gets no credit for winning games. If managers don't have a huge impact on wins and losses, as you're now trying to suggest, then I guess you shouldn't fret so much over Dusty's managerial decisions.

    The talent level is a huge factor in wins and losses. That's not being disputed. But managers also impact that as well. If they didn't, you wouldn't be so vocal against Dusty's decision-making. Because if you didn't think it mattered much, why get so upset over it?
    My opinion of Dusty would be the same whether his career winning percentage was 47%, 52%, or 57%. He's a poor in game manager. That is my opinion of Dusty. I could name the reasons I believe that, but I don't think you're asking me to, and frankly I don't have the time tonight.

    I'll again refer to something I already said:
    Put the "best manager" in the game on the worst team, and it's still the worst team. Put the worst manager on the best team, and while it's probably still the best team, there is more a manager can do to bring down a team with his decision making than he can build up a team that is going to over achieve.
    That's my opinion on the matter. Dusty's decision making does more bring down a team than it does to help it. I think, in the past few years, its been much less pervasive because he's been given a much better roster to deal with. However, Paul Janish, Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo, etc., have all managed to find a way to the top of the lineup card many times when that can't possibly be rationally justified.

    And no, I absolutely did not say that he is responsible for losing games, yet gets no credit for winning games. Please do not put words in my mouth. Dusty does a lot of things in the game that drive me absolutely insane. The Reds are the only team I follow and watch on a nightly basis, so I'm not going to pretend that I "know for a fact" that he is the worst manager in the MLB. I just know that, very often, I strongly disagree with his decision making.

    You are trying to quantify this by citing managerial records and such. I'm saying that it isn't quantifiable, and I'm telling you what my opinion is. I'm also giving you reasons for my opinions. I think that over the course of a season, Dusty's decision making absolutely does cost the Reds ball games. Does his positive influence in the locker room lead to more wins? Maybe. We truly have no way of knowing that. However, a reasonable person can conclude that he makes decisions that lower the Reds chances of winning, such as taking out your 2nd best reliever for your worst in a tie game in the 8th inning. Maybe that's the decision that every manager in baseball makes? I don't know. Like I said, I don't watch every other team. However, I can say that, regardless of the actual result of the at bat, that decision gave the Reds less of a chance of winning that game. I have no idea how to put that in the 80-90% probability number that you are demanding of me, but that is an example of what I believe to be a blatantly bad decision.

  9. #83
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    South Vienna, OH
    Posts
    4,397

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Lol, I like how the intense Dusty argument is taking place in the Joey Votto thread. You guys are confusing the crap out of me. There are roughly one billion Dusty Baker threads currently. I have a lot of respect and enjoy reading both of you, but I'm not sure what place this argument has here... I think this is a pretty important thread at the moment, and think it's important it doesn't get derailed.

  10. #84
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Lol, I like how the intense Dusty argument is taking place in the Joey Votto thread. You guys are confusing the crap out of me. There are roughly one billion Dusty Baker threads currently. I have a lot of respect and enjoy reading both of you, but I'm not sure what place this argument has here... I think this is a pretty important thread at the moment, and think it's important it doesn't get derailed.
    I agree. Although the child in me wants to point out that I did not start this.

  11. #85
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    My opinion of Dusty would be the same whether his career winning percentage was 47%, 52%, or 57%. He's a poor in game manager. That is my opinion of Dusty. I could name the reasons I believe that, but I don't think you're asking me to, and frankly I don't have the time tonight.

    I'll again refer to something I already said:


    That's my opinion on the matter. Dusty's decision making does more bring down a team than it does to help it. I think, in the past few years, its been much less pervasive because he's been given a much better roster to deal with. However, Paul Janish, Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo, etc., have all managed to find a way to the top of the lineup card many times when that can't possibly be rationally justified.

    And no, I absolutely did not say that he is responsible for losing games, yet gets no credit for winning games. Please do not put words in my mouth. Dusty does a lot of things in the game that drive me absolutely insane. The Reds are the only team I follow and watch on a nightly basis, so I'm not going to pretend that I "know for a fact" that he is the worst manager in the MLB. I just know that, very often, I strongly disagree with his decision making.

    You are trying to quantify this by citing managerial records and such. I'm saying that it isn't quantifiable, and I'm telling you what my opinion is. I'm also giving you reasons for my opinions. I think that over the course of a season, Dusty's decision making absolutely does cost the Reds ball games. Does his positive influence in the locker room lead to more wins? Maybe. We truly have no way of knowing that. However, a reasonable person can conclude that he makes decisions that lower the Reds chances of winning, such as taking out your 2nd best reliever for your worst in a tie game in the 8th inning. Maybe that's the decision that every manager in baseball makes? I don't know. Like I said, I don't watch every other team. However, I can say that, regardless of the actual result of the at bat, that decision gave the Reds less of a chance of winning that game. I have no idea how to put that in the 80-90% probability number that you are demanding of me, but that is an example of what I believe to be a blatantly bad decision.
    I don't see how someone can have it both ways. If he costs games, then it's fair to point out his record. If a manager is responsible for some wins or losses, then he should get credit (or blame) for his managerial record to some extent.

    It seems people want to criticize but don't want to have any accountability for exaggerations or perhaps that their conclusions were based on coin flips rather than something concrete.

    You keep harping on the Ondrusek thing. But Ondrusek's career OPS against is over 30 points better than an average NL reliever. Whether you like it or not, he's gotten the job done more than not. To suggest using him is blatantly wrong doesn't align with what's actually happened over the course of his career thus far. Maybe at some point the regression fairy will adjust his overall numbers to fall in line with what people here seem to believe, but as long as he keeps getting the job done, I don't see how people can continue to say Dusty is "blatantly wrong" for using him in tight situations. Results do matter. Ondrusek's overall results, not his theoretical stats, continue to be better than an average pitcher.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #86
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    columbus,ohio
    Posts
    2,224

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Except all of us have quite a bit of experience in baseball. I played baseball for many, many years. I've been watching professional baseball for many, many, many years. I have read so much about the game, discussed it extensively with people on here on almost a daily basis, am able to form my own opinions, and analyze the game at a pretty high level. The same can be said for most people on this board.
    I'm going to guess that I've played in over 500 baseball games in my life.I'm pretty sure that no less then 180 of those were for my schools team with another 200 having been for youth traveling teams.I'll guess that I've attended over 100 professional baseball games in my life.Mostly Reds and the local AAA team here in Columbus.I have no doubt that I've watched well over 1000(probably more like 2000)televised baseball games over the years.I've spent countless hours watching baseball specials and other baseball related TV show.My time in RZ and other site are also worth mentioning.All of these numbers are rough guesses but I promise that I'm being very conservative.

    I have been to the doctor a few times for all the common reasons people go to the doctor.I sprained my knee once and had to go to the emergency room.I've attempted to pay attention to some of my older relatives as they catch me up on all of their ailments and trips to the doctor(is it just me or do old people really like to talk about this stuff).

    My point is that I feel pretty confident giving my opinion about something baseball related and not so confident giving my opinion about something health related.While you don't need to be qualified to give an opinion it's a good idea to know a little something about what you're talking about and if your're really spouting off about something it might be a good idea to be an expert.I'm pretty sure there's a good number of baseball experts here and not too many medical experts.

  13. #87
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Zanesville, OH
    Posts
    1,318

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Some people just choose to argue for the sake of winning anything. Dale Carnegie would tell you that everyone is right in their own mind. I'm a financial advisor and I'll tell you the people that argue the most are the ones with the least amount of control over their money.

    In regards to this spat, Ill say: Brutus you love being the antagonist, but know that your act gets old no matter how credible your argument may be.

  14. #88
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04 View Post
    Some people just choose to argue for the sake of winning anything. Dale Carnegie would tell you that everyone is right in their own mind. I'm a financial advisor and I'll tell you the people that argue the most are the ones with the least amount of control over their money.

    In regards to this spat, Ill say: Brutus you love being the antagonist, but know that your act gets old no matter how credible your argument may be.
    If you have a problem with me, I suggest you put me on ignore or take it private. Not sure where you think it's your place to call me out for no apparent reason whatsoever. Dale Carnegie would also tell you that someone shouldn't engage someone in a conflict, especially one they weren't involved in.
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-14-2012 at 12:21 AM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #89
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    25,481

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Except all of us have quite a bit of experience in baseball. I played baseball for many, many years. I've been watching professional baseball for many, many, many years. I have read so much about the game, discussed it extensively with people on here on almost a daily basis, am able to form my own opinions, and analyze the game at a pretty high level. The same can be said for most people on this board.

    Aside from actual doctors, no one on this board has any idea what they're talking about when it comes to Kremchek performing a knee surgery. Absolutely no idea. Can anyone tell me what Kremchek should have done differently? Should he have been more cautious when scoping his knee? I can't even come up with a hypothetical question to ask here because I know next to nothing about what it takes to perform a knee surgery. What I can tell you is that Logan Ondrusek is not an 8th inning pitcher, that bunts are extremely unproductive, that Corey Patterson should not be a leadoff hitter, etc. A manager's decision making is very public, and fair game to be criticized. Kremchek's decision making/performance is not. I don't have to have major league baseball experience to have an opinion on Dusty's decision making. Sometimes I'm right and Dusty is wrong. Sometimes I'm wrong, and Dusty is right. In no way is that comparable to Kremchek's "performance." Those throwing the stones at Kremchek have literally no idea what they are talking about. Unless they can specifically tell me how he should have performed the surgery differently (which would mean they would have to have been there to watch him perform the first surgery), the situation is 100% not comparable.
    THIS. All of THIS.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  16. #90
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,967

    Re: Votto out additional 7-10 days

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Only to a small degree. Lineup construction is theoretical. Truth is, we can't know ever how a lineup would work. It's based on false assumptions that players aren't pitched differently or react differently with different spots in the order.

    It's a manager's job to not only construct a lineup based on skill, but based on how players are able to handle a role psychologically as well as physically. Some players aren't as comfortable in different spots in the order as they are others. That's an emotional part of the game we as fans do not have access to, whereas the manager would be more privy to it.
    Do you really believe that the potential for 'emotions' and slight differences that players have in relation to their line-up position makes us essentially equal to able to construct a line-up as we do to perform a significant medical procedure? I'm never going to buy that one.

    Honestly, I think the stats would show that there might be slight differences in the stuff you are talking about, but at least 90% of line-up construction is based on being able to understand very easy mathematics. You just can't say anything close to that about doctors no matter how you spin it.

    We as posters wont be able to fairly criticize doctors here unless Reds players consistently begin getting recurring injuries or their DL trips are consistently longer than expected.

    If I recall, most of Krem's complaints were surrounding Griffey's constant surgeries and issues, and general unpredictability. I think time showed that Griffey was simply broken from his high gear level of play from his early years and demanding position. Considering that players from multiple different sports, and even other baseball teams have significant surgeries performed by Krem, I think its fair to say the guy is earning his paycheque despite Votto's relapse. Not to mention the health of the Reds starting pitching, the argument just can't be made.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25