Originally Posted by
Homer Bailey
My opinion of Dusty would be the same whether his career winning percentage was 47%, 52%, or 57%. He's a poor in game manager. That is my opinion of Dusty. I could name the reasons I believe that, but I don't think you're asking me to, and frankly I don't have the time tonight.
I'll again refer to something I already said:
That's my opinion on the matter. Dusty's decision making does more bring down a team than it does to help it. I think, in the past few years, its been much less pervasive because he's been given a much better roster to deal with. However, Paul Janish, Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo, etc., have all managed to find a way to the top of the lineup card many times when that can't possibly be rationally justified.
And no, I absolutely did not say that he is responsible for losing games, yet gets no credit for winning games. Please do not put words in my mouth. Dusty does a lot of things in the game that drive me absolutely insane. The Reds are the only team I follow and watch on a nightly basis, so I'm not going to pretend that I "know for a fact" that he is the worst manager in the MLB. I just know that, very often, I strongly disagree with his decision making.
You are trying to quantify this by citing managerial records and such. I'm saying that it isn't quantifiable, and I'm telling you what my opinion is. I'm also giving you reasons for my opinions. I think that over the course of a season, Dusty's decision making absolutely does cost the Reds ball games. Does his positive influence in the locker room lead to more wins? Maybe. We truly have no way of knowing that. However, a reasonable person can conclude that he makes decisions that lower the Reds chances of winning, such as taking out your 2nd best reliever for your worst in a tie game in the 8th inning. Maybe that's the decision that every manager in baseball makes? I don't know. Like I said, I don't watch every other team. However, I can say that, regardless of the actual result of the at bat, that decision gave the Reds less of a chance of winning that game. I have no idea how to put that in the 80-90% probability number that you are demanding of me, but that is an example of what I believe to be a blatantly bad decision.