.....who would you keep?
.....who would you keep?
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
Leake, and I wouldn't think about it very hard.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
Leake, as he hasn't had the shoulder issues.
Less injury worries, club has control of him for longer period of time.
I like his makeup better too. Seems like he will have a long career like Arroyo.
I have been impressed with how Homer has taken a huge step forward this year however. Impressed that he had such a rigorous offseason workout to get in good shape, and glad it paid off for him.
Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Leake for two reasons:
1. More than a year less service time
2. Adds value at the plate
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
If you are talking about a trade, the return would be involved in my decision. All things being equal, Leake.
Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.
Reds Fan Since 1971
I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)
I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.
For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.
"Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.
Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.
Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.
But if forced to take one of them for the future, I'd take Leake. I think Homer's high ceiling is questionable at this point.
Homer as a power pitcher and bat misser isn't working out. His K rate is 6.80 per nine innings and has gotten lower over the last three years. Fangraphs rates his fastball below average. I don't see the big upside at this point.
Leake never was held out as a power pitcher, is a bit younger and less experienced, but is very competitive and shows a feel for pitching. Good ground ball rate of 47.7%. Many of his numbers are similar to or slightly better than Homer's this year (FIP, xFIP, WAR for example).
Given his modest K rate and fastball rating, I don't see Bailey's path to sustaining excellence. I can see Leake's as a ground ball guy, although it's certainly not a lock.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-17-2012 at 02:04 PM.
Bailey has just not won me over. Even when he was pitching well, I felt it was somewhat smoke & mirrors. He too often gets the ball up in the zone for my liking. His stuff is a little better than Leake's when it's on, but I like Leake because of the age, the contract, the control and being able to induce more grounders.
I don't dislike Bailey, but I'd rather have Leake going forward.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda