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Thread: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

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  1. #1
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    .....who would you keep?
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake, and I wouldn't think about it very hard.

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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by reds1869 View Post
    Leake, and I wouldn't think about it very hard.
    bird in the hand and all that.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Member SirFelixCat's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake, as he hasn't had the shoulder issues.

  5. #5
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake..
    Less injury worries, club has control of him for longer period of time.
    I like his makeup better too. Seems like he will have a long career like Arroyo.

    I have been impressed with how Homer has taken a huge step forward this year however. Impressed that he had such a rigorous offseason workout to get in good shape, and glad it paid off for him.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake for two reasons:

    1. More than a year less service time
    2. Adds value at the plate
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #7
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    If you are talking about a trade, the return would be involved in my decision. All things being equal, Leake.

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
    Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
    Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.

    Can I change my vote?
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  10. #10
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

  11. #11
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.
    Are you suggesting that RedsZone fans are a fickle lot?

    /Leake, but by a hair and like someone said above, the return would have to be known too
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.
    The issue with with Bailey has always been his inconsistency. He has better stuff, but can't put it together for an extended period of time.

    I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.

    For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #13
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The issue with with Bailey has always been his inconsistency. He has better stuff, but can't put it together for an extended period of time.

    I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.

    For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.
    My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

    Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

    Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.

  14. #14
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

    Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

    Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.
    I think Homer has done some good things this year and look forward to another hot streak from him. This has been Homer's best year IMO and overall I think he has contributed a bit more than Leake. I wouldn't mind if the Reds keep Bailey next year.

    But if forced to take one of them for the future, I'd take Leake. I think Homer's high ceiling is questionable at this point.

    Homer as a power pitcher and bat misser isn't working out. His K rate is 6.80 per nine innings and has gotten lower over the last three years. Fangraphs rates his fastball below average. I don't see the big upside at this point.

    Leake never was held out as a power pitcher, is a bit younger and less experienced, but is very competitive and shows a feel for pitching. Good ground ball rate of 47.7%. Many of his numbers are similar to or slightly better than Homer's this year (FIP, xFIP, WAR for example).

    Given his modest K rate and fastball rating, I don't see Bailey's path to sustaining excellence. I can see Leake's as a ground ball guy, although it's certainly not a lock.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-17-2012 at 01:04 PM.

  15. #15
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.
    Leake, and for the record, I would have answered the same a few weeks ago.

    Bailey has just not won me over. Even when he was pitching well, I felt it was somewhat smoke & mirrors. He too often gets the ball up in the zone for my liking. His stuff is a little better than Leake's when it's on, but I like Leake because of the age, the contract, the control and being able to induce more grounders.

    I don't dislike Bailey, but I'd rather have Leake going forward.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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