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Thread: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

  1. #46
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    The problem is total innings pitched...

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  3. #47
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    IMO, anyone who says it's "easy" is completely biased or not paying attention.

  4. #48
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    IMO, anyone who says it's "easy" is completely biased or not paying attention.
    To be honest, it's pretty easy for me, and I would take Homer. This has nothing to do with tonight or even that I don't like Mike Leake. But they're pretty much the same pitcher right now, results wise. But Homer has a higher ceiling, and I think Mike basically is what he is. I don't think Mike Leake has the ability to be a pitcher like Homer was in July this year, and I think Homer has the potential to be closer to that than what he is now.

  5. #49
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    To be honest, it's pretty easy for me, and I would take Homer. This has nothing to do with tonight or even that I don't like Mike Leake. But they're pretty much the same pitcher right now, results wise. But Homer has a higher ceiling, and I think Mike basically is what he is. I don't think Mike Leake has the ability to be a pitcher like Homer was in July this year, and I think Homer has the potential to be closer to that than what he is now.
    Mike Leake is what he is, but yet Homer Bailey, after 1,000 innings and three years of regression/static pitching, isn't?

    Bailey also is what he is. It's not impossible he improves, but it's time to start facing the reality this is who he is too. Good pitcher, decent strikeout rate, improved control, but sometimes erratic.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #50
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I don't like either.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman

  7. #51
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I don't like either.
    Then you may want to go find another team to cheer for or resign yourself to the fact that you will never be happy with a rotation the Reds put forward.
    Last edited by kaldaniels; 08-20-2012 at 09:49 PM.

  8. #52
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Even after tonight performance, I keep both. No question. People forget just how young these two guys are. Homer has a much higher ceiling IMO, but Leake has a much wider variety which fits into the rotation well (especially after Bronson leaves).
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
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  9. #53
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Didn't Leake throw a complete game just 5 days ago?

  10. #54
    Waiting for a tour/album KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Didn't Leake throw a complete game just 5 days ago?
    Don't bring up facts to confuse people! The answer is yes, but as someone pointed out (in the game thread?) it was against the Mets-the same team that Homer lost to the next game. By that reasoning Homer should have a good game tomorrow.
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  11. #55
    Waiting for a tour/album KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Even after tonight performance, I keep both. No question. People forget just how young these two guys are. Homer has a much higher ceiling IMO, but Leake has a much wider variety which fits into the rotation well (especially after Bronson leaves).
    I don't know about a higher ceiling but IMHO a power pitcher like Homer (and Cueto, Latos, Chapman) are the equivalent to thoroughbreds in horse racing. Just more "sexier". Whereas Leake and Arroyo are draft horses or mules - capable for getting the job done just not pretty or exciting.
    2014 Reds record when I'm attending: 3-4
    2014 Dragons record when I'm attending: 1-0
    "We want to be the band to dance to when the bomb drops." - Simon Le Bon of Duran Duran

  12. #56
    Waiting for a tour/album KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Just caught the last part of the post game show w/Marty and Jeff. In effect they believe Leake is the odd man out especially in the post season. You know what you're going to get with Cueto, Latos and even Arroyo. Tomorrow's start will be huge for Homer.
    2014 Reds record when I'm attending: 3-4
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    "We want to be the band to dance to when the bomb drops." - Simon Le Bon of Duran Duran

  13. #57
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Isn't there something to be said about Leake's age and shorter time in the majors, and need to build-up arm strength for this time of year still? (considering the fact he, as well as Homer, are in never-before territory with # of innings pitched)

    Or is that not a factor at all for him? I want to keep both, frankly, they have everything to do with why the Reds are where they are. I know the question is "one or the other," but I wouldn't want to give up either of them.

  14. #58
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Mike Leake is what he is, but yet Homer Bailey, after 1,000 innings and three years of regression/static pitching, isn't?

    Bailey also is what he is. It's not impossible he improves, but it's time to start facing the reality this is who he is too. Good pitcher, decent strikeout rate, improved control, but sometimes erratic.
    The idea is that whichever one you keep, at bare minimum you're going to get the same pitcher, but Bailey has more to offer potentially.

    As to why, I think just think Mike's stuff is going to keep his ceiling in the middle of the pack, and he's pretty much hit it. He's a softer tosser in a game where pitchers are throwing harder than ever and will continue to throw harder. Guys like him that rely so heavily on fine control will pretty much always be prone to getting blown up more often than other pitchers. He's a fine piece to have, he's basically an exactly average pitcher to have and that's pretty useful. But so is Homer, and his stuff raises his ceiling just a bit higher.

  15. #59
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    The idea is that whichever one you keep, at bare minimum you're going to get the same pitcher, but Bailey has more to offer potentially.

    As to why, I think just think Mike's stuff is going to keep his ceiling in the middle of the pack, and he's pretty much hit it. He's a softer tosser in a game where pitchers are throwing harder than ever and will continue to throw harder. Guys like him that rely so heavily on fine control will pretty much always be prone to getting blown up more often than other pitchers. He's a fine piece to have, he's basically an exactly average pitcher to have and that's pretty useful. But so is Homer, and his stuff raises his ceiling just a bit higher.
    Leake's career k/9 is 6.13, Homer's is 6.93. Not really that big of a difference.

    I think the most interesting post in this thread was the one showing the game scores this year. People seem to have the perception that Homer, at his best, has a much higher ceiling than Leake. Interestingly, though, Leake has four of the top five game scores by either pitcher this season. In fact, Homer only has one game of more than eight strikeouts this year, so his best hasn't really been all that much better.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #60
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Leake's career k/9 is 6.13, Homer's is 6.93. Not really that big of a difference.

    I think the most interesting post in this thread was the one showing the game scores this year. People seem to have the perception that Homer, at his best, has a much higher ceiling than Leake. Interestingly, though, Leake has four of the top five game scores by either pitcher this season. In fact, Homer only has one game of more than eight strikeouts this year, so his best hasn't really been all that much better.
    The key on that last part is "this year."

    As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

    If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.


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