"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Homer has displayed the ability to strike people out in the reasonably recent past and hasnt displayed any physical reason why he should not be able to anymore, so I don't think it's all that far fetched to suggest he can still do it.
But Leake has 2 HR's.
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As many are aware, Fangraphs has "pitch value" stats. Homer's fastball is not very effective this season by this measure.
wFB uses linear weights to determine how many runs are saved by the use of the pitcher's fastball. Chapman, for example has saved 17.8 runs, Cueto 17.6 using the fastball.
Bailey's fastball, by this measure, has saved -14.1 runs.
Now, that stat may not be entirely fair because Homer has probably thrown many fastballs this year and it is a counting stat. So there's also a wFB/C stat which standardizes the results per 100 pitches. Chapman is +2.02 by that measure and Cueto is +1.20, again focused on the fastball.
Bailey's fastball, by this standardized measure, has saved -.95 runs.
Others may understand these stats better, but it seems to me that a power pitcher needs a more effective fastball and this could correlate to the relatively low K rate so far for Homer. I was surprised Homer's fastball did not grade out higher.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-21-2012 at 09:15 AM.
Of course, I don't put a lot of stock into Marty's thoughts.. Marty was annoyed Leake could not hold the lead.. I'm sure Marty will say Homer will be left off the roster after his next rough start. Marty doesn't think much of either guy.
But it raises an interesting question.. The broadcasters claimed Leake couldn't pitch out of the pen.. I'm not sure that's accurate, but let's assume it is.. They say Homer can't pitch out of the pen either. Would it make sense to drop one of Leake/Homer off the playoff roster? I'm not sure it does.. I think they'd have to replace them with a pitcher that is on the DL on Aug 31. (I'm assuming neither Homer or Leake will be injured before then).. So that just means replacing them with Bray or Masset.. Not really sure that's an upgrade. Bray has been ineffective all year, and I think Masset is a lost cause for this year..
If they could replace one of Homer/Leake with a position player, maybe that makes sense.. who would you guys pick? Cairo, Billy Hamilton? Not really sure there's anyone in the organization worth considering (I'm assuming Cairo is the odd man out when Votto is healthy). I'm guessing if the Reds really wanted to, they could DL LeCure at the end of August and bring up a position player to replace him and then have the flexibility to replace Homer/Leake with a position player through roster juggling, but I'm not 100% sure..
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Leake. I'm already on record advocating a trade of Bailey in the offseason. His splits suggest he would be worth more to teams that don't play half their games in GAPB.
Thank goodness for baseball.
I can live with a lower K rate as long as the BB's go down with them. What's hurt Homer this year (and last) are his HR's allowed. He seems to be going to his breaking balls quite a bit more of late, mixing things up like that should correct that HR rate some I'd think. I'm not worried about Homer in the least.
Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!
Unlike Cueto, Homer doesn't throw ground balls at a high rate. Cueto is 18th in ground ball percentage among NL pitchers with 100 innings, Homer is 47th.
So the question is this - what is Homer's path to success? Not strikeouts apparently. Not ground balls apparently.
Low walk rate? A 2.63/9 walk rate is good, but it's not special, it's not enough to make you a winner absent some other superior ability.
Homer has pitched some great games this year, but based on current numbers I'm struggling to see how it all turns out for the better. I always thought he would be a power pitcher, but if not he needs to find some other path to success, which I don't yet see in his numbers.
He's still young and has a great arm, maybe something will click in the near future.
Last edited by Kc61; 08-21-2012 at 12:50 PM.
I'd keep both of them, personally. I'd also keep Chapman as the closer and plan to move either Corinco or Cingrani (which ever develops faster) into the starting rotation in 2014 once Arroyo's contract is done.
If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve!
So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right?
"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."