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Thread: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

  1. #31
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I think the argument for Homer is that his best performances are more dominant. He has pitched some great games this year, games in which he got stronger in the late innings, looked like a top end pitcher. Leake hasn't been so dominant even in his better games.

    I'd vote for Leake, but I think that's the theory for Homer and it's a fair point.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-17-2012 at 03:04 PM.

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  3. #32
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Homer would do better and look better pitching in Petco or someone other large park. He's scared to death of giving up the HR ball.

    I agree with Brutus. Homer is what he is. He's had enough innings and time to establish who is he.

    I think fans have a tendency to latch onto or invest wayyy too much allegience to certain prospects. When they don't quite pan out, there's always that clinging hope that they will, instead of acknowledging that they didn't quite meet all the hype and huge expectations. Bailey is one of these guys. And Bruce is quickly becoming one. But the blame, maybe should simply be on the fans ridiculous expectations and not these players.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  4. #33
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I mostly agree with Brutus, but we also have to remember that Bailey came up to MLB fairly young. He would hardly be the first 28-30 year old starting pitcher to make another jump.

    Unfortunately, it would be an expensive gamble to see if he does it (ie. Darren Dreifort - whom never made that extra jump and got an injured). The problem with Baiely is that the Reds will have to essentialyl pay him dollar for dollar what he deserves based on what he prdocues. From here, he wont be cheap regardless of what he does, and for that reason, I'd rather have Leake whom is a pretty good starter, and has the extra cheap year which gives him more controllable value before having to pay for whatever perceived upside there is.

  5. #34
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I don't know the answer to this question, it's a tough one for me.

    But it's probably the most important question for the front office to answer in the year ahead.

  6. #35
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I mostly agree with Brutus, but we also have to remember that Bailey came up to MLB fairly young. He would hardly be the first 28-30 year old starting pitcher to make another jump.
    Very true. Pitchers tend to improve less linearly than hitters do, or at least that's my impression. Bailey probably is what he is for now, but it's not out of the question he couldn't figure something out later that takes him to another level.

    As for Leake, I don't really buy the "this is all there is" argument some have made. It's easy to forget he's 18 months younger than Bailey and had enough talent to get major-league hitters out without even touching the minor leagues. Granting he doesn't have the top-end velocity many other guys do, he's the guy I'd bet on to keep coming up with tweaks and adjustments to get better.
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  7. #36
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Bailey has made meaningful improvements this season, so he absolutely can improve more. Change is usually gradual.

    And Leake never really spent time in the minors, so he's been learning on the job for the past few years. It seems like he's still learning how to pitch in the bigs, so he also can amd should improve.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #37
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    It's tough for me too. Bailey really is the more dominant in a single game when he's on but he really isn't any more dominant than Leake over a season. I'd say if it was a trade it would be about the return and also about the payroll and its impact - Leake is going to be cheap for another year or two after Homer gets expensive. Don't mind the payroll if I know Bailey is going to keep getting better but I don't know that. Seems to me that both pitchers have progressed each year a bit, with Bailey hampered by health issues. I'd say Homer isn't done progressing - heck he's made strides each year - now it's mostly about eliminating or reducing the bad games.

    You know what I think I just talked myself into keeping Bailey, after all.

  9. #38
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    The most consistent argument for Bailey seems to be that when he's on his game, he's more dominant. Admittedly, I'm a Leake guy--I prefer the way he goes about his business--but I just don't see the dominance argument.

    I charted the top 15 performances for each guy for the past three seasons, averaging five performances a year. I listed them chronologically. Here's how they break down:

    Homer Bailey (5-3-86)

    5-12-10 vs Pit: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K, GS 85
    8-15-10 vs. Fla: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 70
    8-20-10 vs. LA: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K, GS 69
    9-10-10 v. Pit: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K, GS 72
    9-26-10 vs. SD: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 64
    5-10-11 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, GS 72
    5-21-11 vs. Cle: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 65
    7-17-11 vs. StL: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, GS 69
    8-2-11 vs. Hou: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, GS 69
    8-13-11 vs. SD: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K, GS 67
    9-9-11 vs. StL: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 68
    6-16-12 vs. NYM: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, GS 68
    7-2-12 vs. LA: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K, GS 70
    7-20-12 vs. Mil: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K, GS 76
    7-25-12 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 7 K, GS 69

    Mike Leake (11-12-87)

    4-28-10 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K, GS 66
    5-9-10 vs. Chi: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 62
    6-5-10 vs. Wash: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 5 K, GS 66
    6-11-11 vs. SF: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K, GS 81
    6-27-11 vs. TB: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, GS 65
    7-19-11 vs. Pit: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K, GS 66
    9-6-11 vs. Chi: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K, GS 79
    9-13-11 vs. Chi: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K, GS 66
    5-21-12 vs. Atl: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 77
    6-1-12 vs. Hou: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K, GS 69
    6-19-12 vs. Cle: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, GS 64
    6-24-12 vs. Min: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K, GS 69
    6-29-12 vs. SF: 9 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, GS 68
    7-24-12 vs. Hou: 8 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K, GS 65
    8-15-12 vs. NYM: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K, GS 79

    As you can see, they're very similar. Bailey shows the top game score, an 85 in his first top-15 outing of 2010. Leake's best is an 81. But the next three highest scores (four of the top five, that is) go to Leake. Taking just their top five outings, Leake averages a game score of 77, Bailey a 75. Bailey's lowest listed score, a 64, is slightly higher than Leake's 62.

    In total, Leake's top 15 games embrace 114 innings; Bailey's 110.1. Their walks are almost identical, 17 for Leake and 18 for Bailey (very good numbers in both cases). Bailey does produce more strikeouts by a fairly modest margin, 88-75.
    Last edited by mace; 08-17-2012 at 05:58 PM.

  10. #39
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    the Reds can't give long term deals to every decent player. when stars get expensive then keep them. when ok guys get expensive move on. hopefully when Bailey & Leake become free agents the good prospects we have will be ready to take over. i wouldn't bet on either of these guys being a Red once their six years of service time are up.

    on the other hand despite his struggles I'd lock up Latos now.
    .

  11. #40
    Waiting for a tour/album KittyDuran's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.
    Awww Doug you're just sore because you couldn't follow Leake up thru the minors.
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  12. #41
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    I think 10 years from now we're going to look back at Homer as the better pitcher. But with his shoulder history and Leake's longer time under control, I think he's the answer. I think they are both gone by 2015 anyway. The Reds spent their money elsewhere. The money left needs to go toward Latos and, if he's still healthy, extending Cueto. Stephenson, Corcino, Lotzkar, Cingrani, Rogers, Travieso and Chapman will be the guys to choose from to fill out the rotation come 2015.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  13. #42
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Reds need to try and lock up Latos and Leake for a couple FA years in the offseason - assuming Leake can be extended at a reasonable contract. Leake seems less injury prone, and someone who could be a solid #3 type for years. The bat and great defense is a bonus.

    Homer is likely good trade bait to a bigger park team, but is getting too expensive for the duration of his service time. The foolish organization use of his service time in his early years is a shame since he is starting to get better (and will get prohibitively expensive if he gets much better).

  14. #43
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Leake. Easily.

  15. #44
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Bailey.

  16. #45
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Bailey.
    Timing is everything.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread


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