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Thread: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

  1. #136
    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    if you have to trade one of them it should be Bailey to the Pirates. He owns that ball park and they should pay a premium to get him given that fact.
    We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

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  3. #137
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by KittyDuran View Post
    So you're also eluding to Madson coming back as a closer (maybe even Broxton in that role)?
    I think with Madson, Broxton and Masset all as possible options next season, along with Marshall and Hoover being back in the fray, I like the odds of finding someone to be closer.

    Even if they only sign one of Broxton or Madson, I think they'll be in good shape.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #138
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferson24 View Post
    I'm not so sure you get the quality OF starter that would be such an improvement that it would be worth trading. I am also not convinced that Chapman will be that effective as a starter. The more exposed he gets the more pedestrian he becomes.
    Exposed? Pedestrian? Dude has a 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. I don't see where those terms should even be in the vocabulary.

    There are no secrets. Teams know he's throwing a fastball 90% of the time. Yet he had a career-best 18.2% swinging strike rate this year -- second best only to Kimbrel. That's not pedestrian, that's flat out dominant.

    Literally, if he only were half as effective as a starter, you're talking a 4:10 strikeout to walk ratio. That's amazing for a starting pitcher. That puts him in such company as: Felix Hernandez, C.C. Sabathia, Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander and Madison Bumgarner who all own a rate right around 4.0. Again, pedestrian?

    But that ignores the possibility of him using his changeup, which the Reds say he has (and used a few times later in the year) and it becomes a plus third pitch.

    I just don't see the downside here. Aroldis could lose so much production and still be a better starter than Bailey or Leake. There is so much margin for error there. And let's not forget, he signed with the Reds as a starter. He pitched most of 2010 as a starter. This isn't much of an experiment.

    The Reds could throw him in winter ball, as they intended to do last year, and be able to gauge his progress by spring. So they won't have to make a decision without having some sort of knowledge how it will turn out. Nonetheless, I think you're underestimating the value of Bailey. His stats, on the whole, are OK but most parks, Bailey would play pretty well (as his road ERA suggests). I find it hard to believe they couldn't get a decent starter in return for him.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #139
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

    That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

    I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.
    I tonight Leake has most of his options left. He's only been sent down once.

    And the Reds were lucky this year in only needing 5 (plus one) starters all year. Very few teams start the season with the five starters they penciled in at the start of spring training.

    I'm guessing the Reds keep all their starters, try Chapman as a starter in spring training, and worry about a glut if and when it happens before opening day.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #140
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I tonight Leake has most of his options left. He's only been sent down once.

    And the Reds were lucky this year in only needing 5 (plus one) starters all year. Very few teams start the season with the five starters they penciled in at the start of spring training.

    I'm guessing the Reds keep all their starters, try Chapman as a starter in spring training, and worry about a glut if and when it happens before opening day.
    It's not about how many options he has, it's that his 3-year option clock expires in the first week of April. That means to use one of his options, the Reds would have to clear waivers before optioning him.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #141
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It's not about how many options he has, it's that his 3-year option clock expires in the first week of April. That means to use one of his options, the Reds would have to clear waivers before optioning him.
    Never heard of that. Where is that in the rule book? Not questioning you, just would like to have it for reference.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #142
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Never heard of that. Where is that in the rule book? Not questioning you, just would like to have it for reference.
    No problem at all. It comes from the Major League Rules;

    Rule 10 Waivers
    10(b) When Waivers Are Required For Assignment

    (3) Optional assignment waivers. Optional assignment waivers are required for an optional assignment from a Major League Club to a Minor League Club only if the date of assignment is three or more years after the date the player first reported to a Major League Club during a championship season. One year shall be deducted from the above three-year period for each season in which the player may have been charged with an option prior to the championship season in which the player first reports to a Major League Club.
    Leake first reported, if memory serves me correctly, on April 10, 2010. So his clock would expire April 11, 2013. Since he did not burn an option in any prior season, no seasons would be deducted from that date as mentioned in the rule.

    There have been rumors that while this is done out of procedure, there is a 'gentlemen's agreement' that other GMs don't make claims on option waivers. I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know the rule itself is strictly enforced.
    Last edited by Brutus; 09-30-2012 at 01:36 AM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #143
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    Re: If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No problem at all. It comes from the Major League Rules;

    Rule 10 Waivers
    10(b) When Waivers Are Required For Assignment



    Leake first reported, if memory serves me correctly, on April 10, 2010. So his clock would expire April 11, 2013. Since he did not spend a whole season on optional assignment in any given year, no seasons would be deducted from that date as mentioned in the rule.

    There have been rumors that while this is done out of procedure, there is a 'gentlemen's agreement' that other GMs don't make claims on option waivers. I don't know if that's true or not, but I do know the rule itself is strictly enforced.
    Thanks.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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