Who has turned out to be the better pick up? Through the first 3 months of the season no doubt it was Beltran. He was probably the MVP of the first 2 months alone.
But counting July and August....man I don't know. Ludwick has been the man while Beltran has really cooled.
I'd say whoever has the better September comes out on top.
If I'm Ludwick, I'm pointing to Beltran's contract after the season is over.
Don't get me wrong, Beltran has the more impressive resume, but if I'm Ludwick, that is the starting point to begin negotiations.
Beltran
PA: 467
wOBA: .368
Ludwick
PA: 348
wOBA: .375
So far, I think Beltran has contributed more: over 100 more PAs with pretty much the same wOBA.
However, cost per win probably gives Ludwick the advantage.
The question is, who will do what going forward.
Good post, Nate.Originally Posted by nate
I would say that if money were no object, Beltran is the better pickup. But in a situation the Reds are in, there's no question whatsoever Ludwick is the better fit. To put up the same production level for a fifth of the cost is the kind of thing that puts a club like Cincinnati in position to compete with higher payrolls.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I'd say Ludwick clearly. He's much more cost effective for essentially the same production. I can't fault him for having 100 fewer PAs as that was due to platooning early on. Given a fulltime job from the start he may have hit better much sooner (conjecture - I know) and have better overall numbers.
I'm just glad we're having this conversation.I do hope the Reds don't go overboard on a contract extension with Beltran's contact as a mirror.
May the Lord bless
I don't think that's likely. Ludwick doesn't have the pedigree of Beltran. I think the Reds FO understands the distinction. The conversation is interesting though considering my montra when Ludwick came to the plate in April and May was "do something, quit being the most boring player on the team."
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Agreed. We didn't have $13MM to spend on Beltran. As it stands, Ludwick has given us great bang for the buck.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I'm thinking that $5M option is a no brainer at this point.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
It's a mutual option.
Ludwick will want more.
I'm not so sure he'll ask for more from Cincinnati. He's made several comments this year about how appreciative he's been to the Reds for taking a chance on him. I could see him taking the 5 mil in order to be the starting left fielder on a team built to win big again in 2013. Maybe he'll ask them for a year extension if he agrees to the option. Call it a hunch.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
I think this is possible.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
5 million is a pretty decent payday. It wouldn't be Ludwick's biggest seasonal contract, but it would be pretty close.
If he comes back, he gets to hit half his games at GAB again and play with what has been a pretty good set of teammates.
I'll say it....if he comes back he gets to play for Dusty Baker and there will be enough talent that he won't be overexposed. If he starts to slip, Dusty will give him some time off and spot him where he can succeed.
I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, but I don't know if I would want to squeeze another 2 million out of the free agent market and then get stuck hitting in a cavernous ballpark or playing for the lAstros.
....
Looking at Ludwick's line at baseballreference is interesting. We all know about the big season he put up for the Cardinals forever ago, but what in the heck happened to him before that? He got to the majors as a 23 year old and then it was another 6 years before he got a clear shot at being a major league regular. He yo-yoed between the major league bench and AAA and didn't get 600 at bats in the majors in all that time. Was released as a 27 year old and spent his whole age 27 season in the minors and then got released again! ....
Cautionary tale about options and such.
It would not shock me if Ludwick decides that he's found a home with Bob and Dusty and GAB and picks up that option.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
Ludwick, Frazier, Chapman, the recent Latos, Cueto, Arroyo (been good this year) are the team MVP's this season.
Before the season, I wasn't expecting much out of Ludwick or Frazier. I did expect more from Latos. After a rough start, he has been what I thought he would be. Arroyo is back to keeping us in games with the occasional blip. Cueto has repeated last season beautifully.
I could be wrong but I think you're underestimating the ego required to be a MLBer. Playing for Dusty may bring him back but there is no way I can believe he's thinking about that other stuff. Being overexposed? Put in spots where he can succeed? You're absolutely right but I doubt very much that Ludwick knows it. He may never express it outwardly but I'd bet a ton of money he thinks he's turned it around and is a full time player and an all star.
"I know a lot about the law and various other lawyerings."
Hitters who avoid outs are the funnest.
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