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Thread: Vote Billy !!!

  1. #16
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Problem is 1 steal does not equal 1 total base, so you can't just add it to the slugging and pretend the two things are equal, because they aren't. Steals don't advance other runners. Hits do.

    Either way, Oscar Taveras has had a much stronger season than Billy Hamilton has. Again, Billy Hamilton has had a good season and a bunch of steals. The other guys on the list have had incredible seasons all around.
    He is a lead off hitter with an open base in front of him in order to steal a base. Which means it is really close to adding that extra base for him. Only the times he hit a single with a man on first or second that went to third or got a walk with a man on third does that matter. Plus, with that, I reduced his BA due to caught stealing. Taking that into account I should up Hamilton's BA for moving players.

    Face it, even if you eliminated 100 points to his slugging he is right up there with him (plus you would need to add to his BA in my post). It's not as much of a difference as you make it out to be.

    Sorry, but you can't just take 143 stolen bases and say it's a bunch of steals. It will be an all time record number of steals when all is said and done. There is a big freaking difference.
    Last edited by scott91575; 08-20-2012 at 07:26 AM.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Hitting a single and then stealing second base is, for the most part, as good as hitting a double in the same position. Obviously 2nd base is already open, and only in the extreme case where a double will score a runner from first is it going to be a big difference (most singles out of the infield score the runner from 2nd unless they're real slow.) Regardless he's moving himself into scoring position, too. Yes, a double overall is better but there is a lot of value in steals, too...especially if you are talking about advancing runners (because he's advancing himself as a runner without needing a hit to do so.)

    When he's stealing 2nd and then 3rd it's just as good as hitting a triple in the same situation given that nobody would be there anyway and he's setting himself to be scored on anything that gets deeper than 15 feet past 2nd base.

    I really feel like Doug just doesn't value speed as much as some other people do. That's fine. He's spent a lot of time talking about how much better other prospects are than Hamilton.
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  4. #18
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.

    And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.

    And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.

    But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

    End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 08-20-2012 at 09:35 AM.

  5. #19
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.

    And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.

    And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.

    But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

    End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.
    You spent time mentioning that one steal isn't equal to one single. Well that's true but you're forgetting that having the threat of a guy like Hamilton is likely to be a huge indirect impact on the hitters behind him because any pitcher will tell you it's tough to concentrate on a hitter with someone on base that can steal a base. And if ever there were a guy that can steal a base, Hamilton is it.

    So Hamilton's steals may not be a 1:1 addition of total bases, but they do count and he would have a huge impact on the guys behind him. If pitchers had to pitch to Joey Votto with Hamilton in front of him, it's not at all unreasonable to expect him to wind up with a ton more pitches to hit because pitchers weren't able to concentrate nearly as well.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    You also forgot to mention that some hitters don't do well with a runner trying to steal because they have to take pitches that wouldn't otherwise and fall behind in the count.

    There is a whole lot of things that go into something with a player like Hamilton. Things that normally don't apply to most players.

  7. #21
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And Jamz, the Reds only have one guy who might be a better prospect than Hamilton is and that is Stephenson. And this is the first time I have said that. I have also said that Hamilton has MVP caliber potential, so let's please not try to suggest I think Hamilton isn't good or can't be. I am just saying that there are prospects out there who are better than he is and ones that are having far better seasons than he is.
    Right, I didn't say that. However, people seem to always be surprised when you aren't touting Hamilton the way that everyone else does. I only pointed out that you don't seem to value speed the way that a lot of others do, and that you've said before that you think a lot of prospects are better (or have been better) than Hamilton. I wasn't putting words in your mouth or anything.

    And stealing 2nd and 3rd with no one on still isn't quite like hitting a double or a triple. If you are on 2nd base and the next batter hits a fly ball to left field, you aren't scoring. But if he steals third on the next pitch he is still on third and you are equating that to a triple. But a triple would have plated a run in that exact same scenario.
    Right -- I was equating it to a triple only in one situation though. I've said that with people on base or in certain situations obviously just hitting a double or triple is better. However, steals do have value and can't be ignored when considering 'total bases' and such.

    But you are probably right, I don't value speed as much as others do on this board.

    End of the day a center fielder hitting .320/.380/.520 is more impressive to me, by quite a lot than a shortstop hitting .320/.420/.430 with 200 steals.
    I guess that's where we differ. I would take the second line every single day. If you say that the lead-off hitter gets something like 750 PA a year you can grab this from those statlines:

    Player 1: .380 OBP = 285 times on base
    Player 2: .420 OBP = 315 times on base

    If we assume that the 2nd player is also stealing 200 bases to the other player's 0 you're going to probably have way more opportunities to get him home than the previous. The difference in RBIs will not make up for the difference in run potential as well as passed balls, balks, and general discord.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  8. #22
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    Right, I didn't say that. However, people seem to always be surprised when you aren't touting Hamilton the way that everyone else does. I only pointed out that you don't seem to value speed the way that a lot of others do, and that you've said before that you think a lot of prospects are better (or have been better) than Hamilton. I wasn't putting words in your mouth or anything.
    I am not the only one "not touting him like everyone else". I might be the only one on this board, but I am not the only one. At this point in time, Hamilton is a top 50 prospect in baseball. That makes an incredibly small amount of prospects that I think are better than him. I do think he is still a moderate risk/high reward guy though.

  9. #23
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    I do not care how well the or deserving the other players are in for the achievement. We are Reds fans and we should vote for Reds.

    Other guys might be hitting better or might have better averages, but Hamilton is one of the most exciting prospects this year. Most exciting is sometimes what usually gets the award anyways. Look at the NFL last year, you have 3 guys throw over 5,000 yards and Drew Brees breaks Marino's record, but who gets the MVP? Aaron Rodgers does because he is a more exciting player. Same goes with LeBron winning his MVP. Kobe was just as deserving, but LeBron is the more exciting player.

    So I am not saying the other players are not deserving and the MVP or POTY achievements are representative of the most deserving, but a combination of somewhat deserving and most exciting. That is Billy Hamilton IMO.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I do not care how well the or deserving the other players are in for the achievement. We are Reds fans and we should vote for Reds.

    Other guys might be hitting better or might have better averages, but Hamilton is one of the most exciting prospects this year. Most exciting is sometimes what usually gets the award anyways. Look at the NFL last year, you have 3 guys throw over 5,000 yards and Drew Brees breaks Marino's record, but who gets the MVP? Aaron Rodgers does because he is a more exciting player. Same goes with LeBron winning his MVP. Kobe was just as deserving, but LeBron is the more exciting player.

    So I am not saying the other players are not deserving and the MVP or POTY achievements are representative of the most deserving, but a combination of somewhat deserving and most exciting. That is Billy Hamilton IMO.
    Aaron Rodgers didn't make the most exciting plays and win the MVP because of it. He won the MVP because he was the best player in the league. He had the highest QB rating in the NFL, by far. His team won the most games.

    LeBron won the MVP award because he was the best player in the game. He was as good of a scorer as anyone, was a better defender than Kobe or Durant, a better rebounder and a better passer.

    Maybe I am nuts, but I am not voting for inferior players in award things simply because they are 'my guy'. I don't do it for the all star games either. The point is to vote for the best, not your favorite.

  11. #25
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So if in a few years Hamilton hits .280/.340/.390 and breaks the stolen base record in the Majors you would vote for him as an MVP over a guy who hits .320/.381/.571 as a center fielder (Oscar Taveras this year for example)? I just can't buy into that being more valuable than what a guy like Taveras is doing.
    If you are going to use Tavaras' AA numbers as an example of what he can do in the majors, why not do the same for Hamilton?

    Hamliton 303/419/424 with over 130 steals. Plays SS.
    Based on the Reds' team makeup right now, I don't think it's a no brainer to chose Tavaras, even at the stat line he is putting up. The Reds have plenty of power in the lineup, but could sure use an infusion of a leadoff hitter/OBP guy.

    Now naturally, maybe neither prospect puts up those numbers in the majors.
    Also, I've never seen Tavaras.. but just wondering why Taveras gets his AA numbers, while Billy gets MLB estimates..
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  12. #26
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Here is the fact most likely to get Doug to change his opinon of Hamilton:

    I agree with Doug.

    If that doesn't get him re-thinking his position, nothing will.
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  13. #27
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Here is the fact most likely to get Doug to change his opinon of Hamilton:

    I agree with Doug.

    If that doesn't get him re-thinking his position, nothing will.
    Hahaha so true.

    But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.

  14. #28
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Hahaha so true.

    But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.
    Crazy talk. I have a personal grudge to hold against him. Or so I am told by some.

    But no, you are on line pretty much with where I am sitting.

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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    I haven't seen Hamilton play a lot, but the few times I have seen him, I am left thinking, "He's not going to get away with that at higher levels."

    Hamilton's struggle will always be getting on base. I see his OBP now, and while it is impressive, I have my doubts about his ability to get on base at the major league level. I certainly think talk of promotion to themajor leagues is premature until he has a full season of AA and a full season of AAA under his belt.

    Right now I see Hamilton as another novelty carnival act - like Chapman and his 100+ mph fastball. What does he offer when he is no longer able to run?
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  16. #30
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    Re: Vote Billy !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Hahaha so true.

    But I think a lot of people are misinterpreting Doug's motive. People around here are uberexcited about Hamilton, and for some of us, the hype has gotten out of hand. Doug's just trying to set it up so that Hamilton won't disappoint by attempting to offer more realistic expectations for Hamilton's future performance.
    As if Doug saying so is going to keep people from being disappointed. People are going to have their own expectations. No amount of Doug trying to feel it's his job as Redszone enthusiasm manager is going to change that.
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