You also have to consider pitching around walks for a #8 hitter also. Hanigan would get challenged more as a #2 hitter, and I don't think he'd be up to that challenge. The lineup when Votto returns should be Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanigan.Originally Posted by Brutus
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
What about having Stubbs in the 8th spot? Increase his walks and utilize his speed on the basepaths
I don't think Dusty wants Stubbs hitting after Hannigan. With Hannigan on base so often, Stubbs' speed would be almost useless. Stubbs in front of Hannigan is ideal, partially due to Hannigan's awesome contact rate. Allows Dusty all kinds of hit-and-run opportunities.
Ryan Hanigan sees ~51% of pitches in the strike zone. MLB average this year is 49%.
Personally, I share your skepticism. However, we're talking about a 70 point difference in OBP. We're not talking about a minor upgrade here. That difference over the # of Stubbs has accrued would be 31 more times on base so far this year.
League average in terms of scoring when on base is about ~14%. Presumably it's higher for a guy in the 2 hole and higher for fast baserunners. In any event, the differece between Stubbs/Cozart and Hanigan would thus be in the ballpark of 5 runs. And depending on just how much of a difference speed makes, it could be less. So is the lineup a "big deal" then? No. Not really.
However, I do find think it's silly to not do something just because the effect is small. Managers constantly talk about players paying attention to detail and always giving 100% effort. You have to be ready to take advantage of the opportunities you get and so forth. Heck, the Reds team philosophy regarding taking the extra base is a perfect example of this.
And yet, when there's an opportunity to do the same in the lineup, they choose not to. But when you figure that Dusty likely thinks the effect of speed offsets the OBP difference (and could be right) and when you factor in that he places a high priority on catcher's staying focused on defense, you can see where he's coming from.
It's easy for us fans to rag on batting order because it seems so obvious and easy to "fix". But it's worth remembering that at the end of the day, what drives your offensive production is guys hitting, period. The batting order might be an annoyance because of it being a constant reminder of Dusty's priorities, but it frankly simply isn't a big enough deal to get worked up about. And if Stubbs and/or Cozart was performing at the .320-330 OBP level that one might predict is where their true talent lies then the difference is even smaller, if not non-existent.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Ludwick
Frazier (Rolen)
Cozart
Stubbs
Hannigan
Pitcher
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I know that some of the ballpark philosophy of batting the catcher lower in the order involves 2 factors from the defensive side that leak into that positions offensive game in the first inning at home.
1. The catcher has to quickly remove his equipment to get ready to bat.
2. the catcher is now not available to discuss the game/pitch selection with the pitcher and coaching staff.
Small stuff... or is it?
The Mayans must have been right, because this would be the end of the world, with the two lefties back to back.
You may be correct, but he wasn't going to get much time in CF with Kemp and McCutcheon on the roster in front of him in his previous 2 stops.
Edit: 287 of 710 minor league games in CF. He may be adequate.
Last edited by dabvu2498; 08-20-2012 at 01:46 PM.
When all is said and done more is said than done.
True, very true.
Looks like they were weaning him away from there in the minors
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=paul--001xav
Cairo has to be the one left off the playoff roster. He can't be on it over Paul or Heisey, and you need Valdez to back up Cozart. Frazier can back up Votto/Rolen and Valdez backs up Cozart/Phillips.
Now where things get interesting is if the Reds decide they want Hamilton on the playoff roster.
I don't see anyway Dejesus makes it to the Reds on waivers. He's affordable and a pretty decent player.
I think Bruce makes the lineup.
Somehow or other, I firmly believe that Billy Hamilton will be on the playoff roster. The day of reckoning is coming on Aug 31. He has to be added to the 40 man on that day to be playoff eligible.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
Yep.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
2B Phillips
LF Frazier
1B Votto
RF Ludwick
CF Bruce
3B Rolen
SS Cozart
C Hanigan
I'd be shocked of that. Probably more shocked by that than anything else I've seen the Reds do lol
I think they'll keep the possibility open, though. They'd probably have him report for the game that day (it's in Houston) and then activate him after the game. But when push comes to shove, while I imagine he'll be with the club in September, I can't see them putting him on the playoff roster unless he's able to contribute as a hitter.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
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