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Thread: Remaining games

  1. #1
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Remaining games

    Stretch run math

    The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
    The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
    The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
    What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

    If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
    Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
    Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

    If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
    Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
    Cards must go 29-12 to tie

    If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
    Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
    Cards must go 24-17 to tie
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Stretch run math

    The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
    The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
    The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
    What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

    If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
    Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
    Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

    If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
    Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
    Cards must go 29-12 to tie

    If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
    Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
    Cards must go 24-17 to tie
    Nice breakdown.

    Not worried about the Cards.

    On the Bucs, here are the questions.

    1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September.

    2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season).

    3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds?

    One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-20-2012 at 04:35 PM.

  4. #3
    Member Reds Fanatic's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    Looking at the remaining schedules of the 3 teams the Cardinals appear to have the toughest schedule remaining.

    They not only play the Reds 6 more times and Pirates 3 more times they still have 7 games left against the Nationals and a west coast road trip in mid September including 4 games in LA.

    The Reds have the next toughest schedule left. 6 games left against both the Cardinals and Pirates. Also 3 games against the Dodgers at home and 3 games left against Arizona who is still in the wild card race and 7 against the Phillies starting tonight.

    The Pirates appear to have the easiest remaining schedule as they still play the Cubs 7 times and the Astros 6 times. The Pirates still have 6 games left against the Reds, 3 games against the Cardinals and finish with 3 games against the Braves
    Last edited by Reds Fanatic; 08-20-2012 at 04:31 PM.

  5. #4
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.

  6. #5
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    The Mets aren't a good team, but depending on who they're pitching in that series, it could be a tough one. I don't care how good you are, facing Dickey, Niese and Harvey in the same series would be one hell of a challenge. The Pirates certainly have an easy slate. But we ARE 6.5 games up, and have given ourselves a huge advantage by building this lead... mostly without Joey Votto.
    Yes, there are variables by pitchers, etc. On the other hand, Mets could play a AAA squad for that series, it's very late in September. They could shut down guys with slight injuries. Hard to tell, which is why I hedged as to how to classify it.

    Right now, though, I'm hoping our old friend Volquez helps the Reds out tonight. Pirates could be in pitching disarray after yesterday. And Pads recently gave Bucs a tough time in Pitt.

    Would like to see Pads take two of three over the Bucs, taking advantage of home field and the Pirates overhang from the nineteen inning game.

  8. #7
    Member jhu1321's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I'm just glad the Reds don't have to play the Reds. With Votto on his way back, I would have no interest in stepping in front of this freight train.


    YES!

  9. #8
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nice breakdown.

    Not worried about the Cards.

    On the Bucs, here are the questions.

    1- How will they do in their 23 "easy" games? 13 against Astros and Cubs. 6 against Brewers at Pitt. (Brewers bad on road.) Four against Mets late in September.

    2- How will they do in their 12 more "difficult" non-Reds games? Three each with Cards (in Pitt), Brewers (in Mil.), Padres (at SD), Braves (to end season).

    3- How will they do in six head to head with Reds?

    One could argue whether the Pads and Mets are easier series or more difficult. I put the Pads as more difficult because of the circumstances now. I put the Mets as easy because their season will be long over when the games happen.

    I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor.

    I'm holding RZ to that.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

  10. #9
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Klu View Post
    I was assured by RedsZone that the Pirates are a non-factor.

    I'm holding RZ to that.
    If the Cards were 2 games back of the Reds, would anyone even really be considering the Pirates? It's the fact that their the closest of any team that makes them seem threatening, but in reality, they are pretty darn far back, and not playing great baseball. Obviously the division race isn't over, but the Reds are in a great, great position.

  11. #10
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Remaining games

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Stretch run math

    The Reds stand 74-48 (.606) with 40 games remaining.
    The Reds lead Pittsburgh 67-54 (.563) by 6.5 games
    The Reds lead St Louis 65-56 (.537) by 8.5 games
    What will it take for the Pirates and/or Cardinals to catch the Reds?

    If Reds go 24-16 (.600) rest of the way (98-64):
    Pirates must go 31-10 to tie
    Cardinals must go 33-8 to tie

    If Reds go 20-20 (.500) rest of way (94-68):
    Pirates must go 27-14 to tie
    Cards must go 29-12 to tie

    If Reds go 15-25 (.375) rest of way (89-73):
    Pirates must go 22-19 to tie
    Cards must go 24-17 to tie
    How does the math look if the Reds go 40-0 the rest of the way? :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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