Offseason Plan

[Kc61]

Ludwick gives the Reds a cleanup hitter without trading valuable assets. Sign him, by all means, forget other cleanup alternatives.

Instead focus on a lefty or switch hitting tablesetter. CF is the obvious position.
If no starter can be acquired, at least swap Heisey for a backup OBP type.

Reds also will need to replace Cairo on the bench and will look to add to pitching. Decision on Madson must be made.

For next year the bench is Xman, Mes (or Hanigan), Valdez. Cairo gets replaced and possibly Heisey.

Frazier is the third baseman replacing Rolen who presumably retires.

Not major surgery.

[Tom Servo]

Ludwick gives the Reds a cleanup hitter without trading valuable assets. Sign him, by all means, forget other cleanup alternatives.

This.

[I(heart)Freel]

Ludwick gives the Reds a cleanup hitter without trading valuable assets. Sign him, by all means, forget other cleanup alternatives.

Instead focus on a lefty or switch hitting tablesetter. CF is the obvious position.
If no starter can be acquired, at least swap Heisey for a backup OBP type.

Reds also will need to replace Cairo on the bench and will look to add to pitching. Decision on Madson must be made.

For next year the bench is Xman, Mes (or Hanigan), Valdez. Cairo gets replaced and possibly Heisey.

Frazier is the third baseman replacing Rolen who presumably retires.

Not major surgery.

How about Rolen in the Cairo bench role, with the chance to start a day or two a week spelling Frazier and Votto (could slide Fraz over to 1B prolly)?

[PuffyPig]

Also, there's no chance Homer Bailey, Drew Stubbs, and a C level prospect nets you Garza alone, much less him and DeJesus.

You don't think the Cubs would take Stubbs and Bailey for one year of Gazra?

I'd be surprised if they didn't jump on Bailey alone.

[Kc61]

How about Rolen in the Cairo bench role, with the chance to start a day or two a week spelling Frazier and Votto (could slide Fraz over to 1B prolly)?

Not sure Rolen would want this, but I'm sure the Reds would love to have him in that spot.

To state the obvious, the big issue for next year is Stubbs/Heisey. Have to think one or both of those spots will change hands. That's where the Reds could use the lefty/OBP addition. But they have to be careful because defense is so important in CF.

The emergence of Frazier and Ludwick solves a couple of needs for next year, assuming they can sign Ludwick. Makes next off season easier IMO.

[mdccclxix]

I think the Reds will also want to go the resign Ludwick route, as coming off a great season does not lead to lots of tinkering, as we saw in 2010.

In fact, it occurs to me now that they may look at bloat payroll a bit further with the arb cases in Leake and Bailey and Stubbs, and in so doing "go all in" one more year. Those are 3 starters on a championship level team.

I'd say Heisey is a bit more on the bubble.

Paul a bit more so.

Bray more still.

And if Rolen wants to come back, I would think he will be offered a spot, for sure.

But if things go well, I can see them wanting to keep the band together one more year before Cingrani, Corcino, Hamilton and others really factor in come 2014. That's some salary relief for when the arb cases really reach their peak. Plus, we've seen them sit on promoting great prospects when they're a winning club. And it's worked out too, of course, with Frazier and Cozart.

[mdccclxix]

I think the Ludwick deal will be about showing some respect. What respect means to Ludwick and/or his agent is somewhat unknown. But, if they think they can go get a 3 year 30 million deal, that's their prerogative. Really interesting spot for all parties.

[mdccclxix]

Waitaminit,

Ludwick's bref page says this: 1 yr/$2.5M (12) & 13 team option

Doesn't this mean he's signed for 2013 then?

Edit: So Cot's, where bref gets their info apparently, says mutual option.

[Benihana]

You don't think the Cubs would take Stubbs and Bailey for one year of Gazra?

I'd be surprised if they didn't jump on Bailey alone.

Exactly.

[WrongVerb]

The Upton deal...I'd do Cozart, Stubbs and Leake for Upton and a LH reliever on the major league roster. That opens a spot for Chapman to move into the rotation. D-backs get their SS and Leake gets a nice homecoming. If that happened, I'd also consider moving Bruce to LF to mitigate some of what appear to be defensive short-comings that have developed.

[buckeyenut]

I think Hamilton is a 2013 mid year addition rather than a 2014 addition. I think the right spot for him is CF, with an offseason deal of Stubbs. I think we want to keep Cozart at SS due to the pop in his bat and the good defense.

With Hamilton in CF and a resigned Ludwick, this lineup is pretty tough at
Hamilton
Phillips
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
Cozart
Hamilraco

If Ludwick doesn't resign, we still need a LF who ideally could bat cleanup, but Frazier or Phillips might be able to bat 4 with Heisey stepping into LF.

I look at this and I just don't see where this team has holes and really needs help going forward. The rotation is top notch, but Arroyo will drop off in 2 years, opening up a hole for someone from minors to fill. Your bullpen is outstanding. And if Ludwick provides the solid type of bat he is providing now or Frazier is for real, we are in good shape.

[Kc61]

The Upton deal...I'd do Cozart, Stubbs and Leake for Upton and a LH reliever on the major league roster. That opens a spot for Chapman to move into the rotation. D-backs get their SS and Leake gets a nice homecoming. If that happened, I'd also consider moving Bruce to LF to mitigate some of what appear to be defensive short-comings that have developed.

I would be amazed if the Reds did anything like this. The ballclub is 27 games over .500. Cozart is great defensively and hits for power. The team is loaded with righty power, there is no crying need for Upton. Ludwick and Frazier provide the power at a fraction of the cost.

And frankly, I don't see the Reds re-configuring the pitching staff so Aroldis can start. If a good closer falls into their laps, maybe, but why tamper with success? When Arroyo leaves presumably in 2014 there are excellent prospects to take his place.

I see relatively minor change this off-season. I'd guess that either Stubbs or Heisey will be replaced, but even there not so sure, CF is a tough position to find quality guys who hit, run and field.

[MikeThierry]

I still do not understand the fascination of moving Chapman to the starting rotation. I said this before but as an outsider, I pray to god that the Reds do this. Right now, you have arguably the most dominant year of any closer in the history of the game. It's lock down in the 9th. Teams cannot come back. Going into the ninth, if the Reds are winning, there is about a 99% certainty that they're going to win. Your starting rotation is good this year. Why mess with a formula that HAS been working and move it to an unknown formula? Plus, there is no certainty that Chapman will be successful in the starting rotation. He's a lock down closer but a pitcher generally needs more than two pitches to be successful in the starting rotation. His fastball and slider are elite pitches but are his other pitches on the same level?

Another thing is why would you want Chapman to have an impact on a game every 5 days vs. the role he has now where he can essentially make an impact in the game on a daily basis?

[Kc61]

I still do not understand the fascination of moving Chapman to the starting rotation. I said this before but as an outsider, I pray to god that the Reds do this. Right now, you have arguably the most dominant year of any closer in the history of the game. It's lock down in the 9th. Teams cannot come back. Going into the ninth, if the Reds are winning, there is about a 99% certainty that they're going to win. Your starting rotation is good this year. Why mess with a formula that HAS been working and move it to an unknown formula? Plus, there is no certainty that Chapman will be successful in the starting rotation. He's a lock down closer but a pitcher generally needs more than two pitches to be successful in the starting rotation. His fastball and slider are elite pitches but are his other pitches on the same level?

Another thing is why would you want Chapman to have an impact on a game every 5 days vs. the role he has now where he can essentially make an impact in the game on a daily basis?

Many people around here have said that individual relievers don't add much value and most any good pitcher can close. Some feel that starters are worth many multiples more than closers.

I've never agreed, although I would have liked to see Aroldis start this season for the Reds right out of spring training. The way things worked out, I think it will now be a tough decision if the Reds decide to try Chappy in the rotation. He is a great closer. A bird in hand . . . .

[MikeThierry]

Many people around here have said that individual relievers don't add much value and most any good pitcher can close. Some feel that starters are worth many multiples more than closers.

I've never agreed, although I would have liked to see Aroldis start this season for the Reds right out of spring training. The way things worked out, I think it will now be a tough decision if the Reds decide to try Chappy in the rotation. He is a great closer. A bird in hand . . . .

Obviously they haven't watched the abortion known as the Cardinals bullpen this year. They have the best offense in the NL, a top 5 starting rotation, the best run differential yet are a 2nd place team. All because the bullpen cannot lock down games. More so than ever having lock down relievers in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innnings is one of the most important things now. Starting pitchers aren't going long in games like they were 20 years ago. Many times, the bullpen is having to pitch almost half of the game.

Also, the whole idea where anyone can pitch in the 9th is where sabermatricians and I separate. There is something about that 9th inning that can shake someone. Technically, they might be right in saying that anyone should be able to pitch in that inning but basic human nature takes it's course. Some people cannot handle pressure situations. Simple as that. I don't believe in clutch hitting or clutch pitching but what I do believe is that there are certain players that can handle high leverage situations better than others. Albert Pujols is the most "clutch" player I've ever seen. He had/has the ability to shut out all external forces and focus with laser accuracy on the job at hand. Others in his same position get "the tight cheeks" and fail.