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Thread: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

  1. #16
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    Just a note: Everyone seems to take as a given that speed guys burn out early in their careers. I'm not sure that's historically true.
    It's been researched that historically speed peaks between 24-25, but not all speed guys automatically begin a decline at that juncture. Many continue for many years before slowing down.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #17
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I think it's slow to catch up. I still see the magic 70% thrown around a lot. As SeaRay mentions this may need to change. There is no fixed benchmark. It changes as the game changes.
    70% is wrong anyways, so I don't know who is throwing that around. It is closer to 74%.

    In a lower run scoring environment, a steal would be more valuable, but a caught stealing would also be more detrimental. My guess? It is still pretty close to evening out in that 74% range.

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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    70% is wrong anyways, so I don't know who is throwing that around. It is closer to 74%.

    In a lower run scoring environment, a steal would be more valuable, but a caught stealing would also be more detrimental. My guess? It is still pretty close to evening out in that 74% range.
    Tom Tango has said it's about 68% in a normal run environment (around 4.5 runs per game or so).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    70% is wrong anyways, so I don't know who is throwing that around. It is closer to 74%.

    In a lower run scoring environment, a steal would be more valuable, but a caught stealing would also be more detrimental. My guess? It is still pretty close to evening out in that 74% range.
    Wouldn't a caught stealing carry a bigger penalty in high scoring environment? To take it to extremes, if every fifth batter hit a home run, then it would be foolish to attempt to steal. On the other hand, in a low scoring environment, small ball becomes more important and successful steals are relatively more rewarding.

  6. #20
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Wouldn't a caught stealing carry a bigger penalty in high scoring environment? To take it to extremes, if every fifth batter hit a home run, then it would be foolish to attempt to steal. On the other hand, in a low scoring environment, small ball becomes more important and successful steals are relatively more rewarding.
    No. The higher the run scoring environment, the less valuable each run actually is. Where as the lower the run scoring environment, each run is worth more. Right now we generally talk about "10 runs = 1 win", but that really doesn't apply to all time. Just the current environment.

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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Tom Tango has said it's about 68% in a normal run environment (around 4.5 runs per game or so).
    You don't by chance have a link to that do you? I wouldn't mind reading all that goes into that.

  8. #22
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You don't by chance have a link to that do you? I wouldn't mind reading all that goes into that.
    I will try to find it this evening. I recently did a spring cleaning on my bookmarks and I can't seem to find it at first glance, but I was wanting to go back and read it myself so I'll see what I can find.

    In the meantime, I did have this link saved that had it around 68.3% from 2007-2009 run environments, which I believe averaged out to about 4.5 runs. It has the 2010-current numbers around 72.7%.

    http://calltothepen.com/2010/05/21/s...e-stolen-base/

    I will definitely try to find the Tango link though because it was a pretty extensive article IIRC.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No. The higher the run scoring environment, the less valuable each run actually is. Where as the lower the run scoring environment, each run is worth more. Right now we generally talk about "10 runs = 1 win", but that really doesn't apply to all time. Just the current environment.
    Don't want to drag this out, but I can't resist one more attempt. In a low scoring environment, I maintain that scoring a run is more difficult and relatively more important. When base hits are few, I have a better chance of scoring if I can get a man to second or third. The risk/reward tends to tilt more toward exploiting my speed and stealing a base. On the other hand, if xbase hits are more frequent, the advantage of risking a steal is lower, since there is a better chance of scoring from first.

    My point here is simply to make a case that in the post steroids era, when more balls are staying in the park, Hamilton's game not simply for stealing, but also for stretching, tends to be more valuable than it would have been 20 years ago.

  10. #24
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    I said that the run is more important. I just don't think the risk/reward changes much because that out costs you more as well when you get caught. Speed in a non-stolen base thing is entirely different.

  11. #25
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by JKam View Post
    Has sabremetric view changed at all now that home runs are way down in recent years? Does a SB become more valuable with less HRs?
    With offense down, extra bases are certainly more valuable. However, base-runners themselves are more valuable as well, so making an out hurts more as well than it does in an era where a guy is more likely to come up and drive himself in.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #26
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Again, I think this article is flawed, unless I am misunderstanding run expectancy:

    With no outs and a runner on first in a five run/game environment, the average team is expected to score 0.950 runs. Moving the runner to second base on a steal yields a run expectancy of 1.192 runs, meaning that the change in run expectancy from that steal was 0.242 runs. The same move with two outs, a move often lauded because the runner is placed in scoring position for the current batter, only yields 0.09 runs on average. In total, in this run-scoring environment, the average stolen base was worth 0.175 runs. A worthwhile move if successful, but hardly worth making a fuss about teams emphasizing.
    The run expectancy of .950 of a runner on first includes all the SB and small ball scenerios to move him to 2b.
    Don't they get run expectancy by averaging the number of runs that actually scored in a given scenerio?
    Example.. Stubbs leads off and singles. Steals 2b. Steals 3b. Scores on a sac fly.
    He started the inning at 1b, so that run gets credited to the run expectancy of a runner on 1b, no outs.

    I think in order to accurately calculate this, you'd have to average out "station to station" run expectancy with a runner at 1b.
    Then calculate run expectancy when the runner is at 1b and attempts to steal 2nd.
    Both these run expectancy numbers might be different than the values expressed in the article.. A runner that just stole 2nd might score more frequently than a slow runner that just got a double (or maybe not).

    I just think the saber communities analysis to get this 68%-74% number is not complete. If they wish to make a bold statement such as "speed is overrated", as the author does, they need more precise data collection, not a sloppy, back of the envelope calculation.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    In a lower run scoring environment, a steal would be more valuable, but a caught stealing would also be more detrimental. My guess? It is still pretty close to evening out in that 74% range.
    The "scoring environment" is less important here than the components of scoring. Losing a baserunner may be more detrimental in a low scoring environment, but what if finding first base isn't a problem? i.e. you have tons of OBP but few XBH?

    Having said that, I'm guessing the allowable CS% doesn't move that much, maybe between 65% and 75%.
    Last edited by Rojo; 08-24-2012 at 03:06 PM.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    The "scoring environment" is less important here than the components of scoring. Loosing a baserunner may be more detrimental in a low scoring environment. But what if finding first base isn't a problem? i.e. you have tons of OBP but few XBH?

    Having said that, I'm guessing the allowable CS% doesn't move that much, maybe between 65% and 75%.
    Sure, the value of a steal for Team A might be different than for Team B. But I don't know of any studies that have gone through that kind of thing. Heck, I am sure a steal in Petco is more valuable than one in GABP because of the ballpark environment and how it alters run scoring. There are a lot of differing variables that could be at play.


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