I would be out front leading the parade downtown for the rest of the winter.Originally Posted by jojo
I would be out front leading the parade downtown for the rest of the winter.
I don't give him great odds, but if he can even continue his level of production he has right now for say 15 years and then starts to tail off, chances are he ends up with more career WAR than either Ruth or Bonds. 200 might be stretching it, but it's not unattainable.
Let's assume that this is his true talent level and he's an 11 WAR player (some years a bit more, some years a bit less) that's 165 WAR over 15 years, and if he plays into his late 30s, early 40s like most elite players he could probably rack up between 4 - 6 WAR a season there, too. 5x5 is 25 so I could realistically see him ending with about 190 career fWAR with potential for more, and obviously a chance at less.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
And Trout was available to us when we drafted in 2009 !!
Think we can get the Angels to trade him to us for Mike Leake?
Think the Reds would have taken Joe Saunders for Joey Votto?
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Sports Illustrated has noted that the Nationals could have drafted Trout in 2009 as well. Imagine having Trout and Bryce Harper in the same outfield.
"Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."
I agree. To date, I believe Al Kaline and his .421/.546/.967 in 1955 would be the best 20-year-old season. He also lead the AL in hitting with a .340 average.
Tony Conigliaro lead the AL in homers at that age in 1965.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
Well the way things are going all you really have to do is add about 40 - 50 steals to Kaline's statline and you've got Trout.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
So I guess the Troutster is moving to LF. What impact will this have on his WAR?
I'd imagine without looking it up that replacement level for left is higher, but he's so good I don't think it really matters much if he plays like he did last year. A 10 win season was going to be hard to repeat anyway even staying in center.
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Barry On Baseball Also blogging at Banished to the Pen.
It all depends...
In a system like WAR, his bat is compared to a league average player regardless of position, so the perception of it's value is largely unaffected.
However, he'll lose about 1 WAR due to the position shift from CF to left (+2.5 to -7.5). That said, it's likely he'll be a plus defender in LF and he'll have significant defensive worth relative to his peers in LF. Really, what might ding him the most is having fewer chances which will tend to depress the gap between an elite defender and an average one.
I'd, thumb-in-the-air-guess, that it might hurt him overall somewhere in the range of about 5 runs or .5 WAR to not at all (assuming nothing in his performance changes)? Its very possible that any decrease in worth is swallowed up by noise (i.e. he could easily have a bat that is worth .5 less this season just because his bat was sooooo good last season.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Theoretical question here.
Tomorrow Mike Trout looks into the cameras and says "I'm the best baseball player on the planet. I'm only getting paid ~600k this season. I want a 10 Million dollar one-year deal this season to secure me financially for life. Otherwise, I'm not reporting to the team."
Now, I know baseball contracts are guaranteed, and the labor contract is rock solid, but I also believe everything is negotiable.
Is there one clause somewhere that would absolutely punish Trout if he did such a thing?
I can't see it succeeding due to the can of worms it would open. I imagine he might be kicked out of the union for such a stunt.
Without getting into the is his salary fair or not part of the equation, I'm just curious...what would actually happen if he did such a thing?
Interesting ... the whole FA thing started by a couple player sitting out a year and getting arbitrated as free agents but now they have a contract with the union - does that still apply to a player with less than the years for FA eligibility?
99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...
From a quick read of the MLBPA agreement, the club would have the right to file a grievance against Mr. Trout which would be heard by an arbitrator. The club would most definitely win the hearing.
If Mr. Trout still refused to report, he could be designated for assignment or released, and as I understand it, no other club would be able to sign him (because he hadn't completed 3 years of major league service).
What you're describing, is essentially what happened with Curt Flood - and what ultimately led to today's process of salary arbitration and Free Agency.
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