Mike Trout is Insanely Good

[REDblooded]

Two things.... first, I am extremely jealous. Second, and this one is important, Canon or Nikon. Choose wisely.

I already know your answer.

We're on opposite sides on this one.

My buddy is shooting Canon though. He was the one who got me started on Nikon, but has had too many customer service issues, and Canon is probably going to sponsor him, so it's a no-brainer….

His opinion. Both are great on the upper ends. Nikon has faster/better auto-focus at high speeds. Canon has far superior customer service, and quicker turn-around when problems arise. Canon is also more durable.

[RedEye]

Sure, I will play that game.

They would require a young, locked up #1 quality pitcher who is at least performing like a good #2. Several top prospects (and from a good system, not just top prospects in a system like the Brewers who don't have anyone in the top 100) and another all-star caliber MLBer with several years of control left.

So... Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Michael Lorenzen and Brandon Phillips. Done and done!

[dougdirt]

I already know your answer.

We're on opposite sides on this one.

My buddy is shooting Canon though. He was the one who got me started on Nikon, but has had too many customer service issues, and Canon is probably going to sponsor him, so it's a no-brainer….

His opinion. Both are great on the upper ends. Nikon has faster/better auto-focus at high speeds. Canon has far superior customer service, and quicker turn-around when problems arise. Canon is also more durable.

What are you guys shooting with? I would peg him with a 1DX. D4 on your end?

The reason I went with Canon when I upgraded to more of a true prosumer body was the lenses.

I remember you were shooting Nikon last year, I was hoping you had been converted lol

[dougdirt]

So... Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Michael Lorenzen and Brandon Phillips. Done and done!

I don't think Lorenzen is a good enough prospect. I don't think Phillips works either because of his contract.

[Chip R]

Here's one reason young players don't get paid as much as veterans: Past performance. A guy like Mike Trout comes up and has a fabulous season. First of all his team doesn't have to pay him $10M a year. Secondly, it could be a fluke. Anyone who has followed baseball for a significant amount of time has seen flash in the pan rookies come up and put up great numbers and then for whatever reason, their performance goes in the toilet and they are never the same again. You could sign a player like that to a big money, long term deal but the contract is guaranteed. It isn't the NFL where you can sign a guy and cut him or restructure his salary after a few years. I think GMs are reluctant to give very young players a lot of money. Liquor, pills, drugs, fast cars, fast women, bad business decisions, etc. Then there is the theory that a long term contract makes a player less hungry.

Veteran players are more reliable. Past performance predicts future results. They are closer in age to the managers, coaches and front office personnel. The drawbacks about veteran players is that you may be paying for what they did in the past. They are more prone to injury and even if they aren't injured, you don't know when their skills will go south. It may be a gradual decline or they may fall off a cliff.

[dougdirt]

Here's one reason young players don't get paid as much as veterans: Past performance. A guy like Mike Trout comes up and has a fabulous season. First of all his team doesn't have to pay him $10M a year. Secondly, it could be a fluke. Anyone who has followed baseball for a significant amount of time has seen flash in the pan rookies come up and put up great numbers and then for whatever reason, their performance goes in the toilet and they are never the same again. You could sign a player like that to a big money, long term deal but the contract is guaranteed. It isn't the NFL where you can sign a guy and cut him or restructure his salary after a few years. I think GMs are reluctant to give very young players a lot of money. Liquor, pills, drugs, fast cars, fast women, bad business decisions, etc. Then there is the theory that a long term contract makes a player less hungry.

Veteran players are more reliable. Past performance predicts future results. They are closer in age to the managers, coaches and front office personnel. The drawbacks about veteran players is that you may be paying for what they did in the past. They are more prone to injury and even if they aren't injured, you don't know when their skills will go south. It may be a gradual decline or they may fall off a cliff.

I understand the flash in the pan rookies.... but there is a difference between paying them $100M at age 22 for the next 8 years and paying them more than $500,000 each year for their first three years no matter how good or bad they are, which is what happens.

[RedEye]

I don't think Lorenzen is a good enough prospect. I don't think Phillips works either because of his contract.

Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Robert Stephenson and Todd Frazier.

[RedsManRick]

Veteran players are more reliable. Past performance predicts future results. They are closer in age to the managers, coaches and front office personnel. The drawbacks about veteran players is that you may be paying for what they did in the past. They are more prone to injury and even if they aren't injured, you don't know when their skills will go south. It may be a gradual decline or they may fall off a cliff.

I wonder just how true this is. I imagine you hit the ceiling about skill-level certainty pretty quickly in to a guy's career. How much more certain are you about his next 600 PA because he's got 4 seasons of track record instead of 3?

And as a guy gets more of a performance track record, he's also adding wear and tear.

Once you account for the increasing likelihood of injury over time and the always present uncertainty about natural skill grown & decline over time, that veteran certainty you describe may be more psychological than actual.

I'd be really curious to see if PECOTA's percentile projections show a pattern in the spread of likely outcomes. I wouldn't be surprised to see that, generally speaking, it narrows for the first 3 seasons or so, plateaus for a few years and then progressively widens throughout the reaminder of the guy's career.

[kaldaniels]

Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Robert Stephenson and Todd Frazier.

If I'm the Angels, and I'm not too concerned about payroll....

Bailey, Bruce, and Stephenson might motivate me enough to crunch some numbers and come up with a counter-offer.

(Fun hypothetical I must say)

[REDblooded]

What are you guys shooting with? I would peg him with a 1DX. D4 on your end?

The reason I went with Canon when I upgraded to more of a true prosumer body was the lenses.

I remember you were shooting Nikon last year, I was hoping you had been converted lol

He's using a 1DX… I'm using a D600, but borrow his D800 from time to time. Don't have the extra $$$ to upgrade to the D4 at this time. The D600 has been a very solid full-frame camera for me though.