There are very few ways to measure future success or failure in baseball. One important way is to look at the schedule. Home. Away. Playing tough teams. Playing weak teams.
Nobody knows if the Cards or Pirates will be hot or cold going forward. You can guess based on last year or based on stats. But none of these teams is the 27 Yankees, they go hot and cold. Nobody knows which they will be.
So one guideline to look at is schedule.
The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball. The Cards play them seven times. The Reds and Pirates are done with them. I think that is quite significant.
You obviously don't. Fine. But when the Cards play the Nationals while the Reds are playing the Astros, I'll take my chances with that situation.
What I know is that if you run correlation to future results, one would first want to look at the team playing those games before worrying about who and where they're being played.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
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