But your whole point has been we should root for the Cardinals because the Pirates have an easier schedule. The basis you were making that claim is that you believed the Pirates had a better probability of catching up. You weren't using probability, but that was the insinuation you were making.
But if you added up the actual probability, which ESPN and Baseball Prospectus both does, the Cardinals still have a better chance of catching the Reds despite the schedule. That's because they take into account probability.